Ryder Cup 2012 - Singles

11.03am CDT, 5.03pm BST: Bubba Watson (11/8) v Luke Donald (11/10)

The first of many top heavy singles battles are Europe look to get some early momentum in their bid for an astonishing fightback, while the USA look to seal the deal early. Luke Donald has won just a point out of three so far but shot 64 with his own ball yesterday as he carried the lacklustre Sergio Garcia to victory, so he’s got every single right to be rated 11/10 for singles victory, not forgetting that he’s got an exceptional record at this event – he came into it with a 77% success record including two successes. Wastson as was beaten by Miguel Angel Jimenez two years ago and in the Presidents Cup but never again will he play on a Ryder Cup course which is so suited towards him – there is quite literally no rough at Medinah, which is typical of the course that Watson enjoys so much as he showed at Augusta, and while Europe can have high hopes this might be best left.

Advice: Donald can edge this 2&1, but this course suits Watson too much to be confident. 1-0 Europe

11.14am CDT, 5.14pm BST: Webb Simpson (6/4) v Ian Poulter (evs)

Ian Poulter has always been something of a Ryder Cup specialist but yesterday’s performance defied belief when he quite literally carried Rory McIlroy to victory over the one of the most impressive pairings seen so far at the tournament with an astonishing run of 5 birdies in the last 5 holes. It’s very much his show that has given Europe a slim, slim chance of retaining the trophy.  The markets have him down as easy meat for Webb Simpson, which might be unfair based on how well he’s played so far, notably when thrashing Rose and Molinari with the match over by the 14^th hole. With that being the case and Poulter also shooting to give us 18/1 and 8/1 winners in the top pointscorer markets, we’ll leave this alone and cheer him on.

Advice: Poutler is a rightful favourite but will have to call upon his reserves again to beat the super reliable putter Simpson. With outright gains at stake, this is one to watch with crossed fingers. 2-0 Europe

11.25am CDT, 5.25pm BST: Keegan Bradley (8/5) v Rory McIlroy (10/11)

With two points already on the board and several fine shots to his name, it’s understandably that Rory McIlroy – himself a finalist of the World Matchplay Championship only to lose in the final – is favourite to beat Keegan Bradley. However Bradley has won every match he’s played in so far, is loving his home debut in the Ryder Cup, has been boosted massively by his pairing with Phil Mickleson and will come here feeling full of life after his rampant victories. McIlroy has been one of the better Europeans and you could argue that his favouritism is deserved, but the price gap is simply miles too big in any circumstance, let alone these.

Advice: 3 pts Keegan Bradley (8/5 Stan James) 2-1 Europe

11.36am CDT, 5.36pm BST: Phil Mickelson (evs) v Justin Rose (6/4)

Phil Mickleson had a horrendous Ryder Cup record before coming here but the responsibility of playing alongside his tutee Keegan Bradley has focused him tremendously and he’s never played so well at this event, being arguably the most impressive American so far with a 100% record so far. His singles record was his most solid piece of form beforehand in any case but playing like this at a course which doesn’t punish his occasional waywardness, he looks excellent value to beat Justin Rose today and complete his finest tournament ever. Rose, who beat Lefty 3&2 at Valhalla four years ago, when the pair also went out fourth, was totally walloped in the Fourballs against Watson and Simpson when the emphasis is more on individual play and while he’s had a solid week so far, he may be running into a player with far too much momentum.

Advice: 2 pts Phil Mickleson (evs Boylesports, Ladbrokes) 2-2

11.47am CDT, 5.47pm BST: Brandt Snedeker (5/6) v Paul Lawrie (7/4)

Paul Lawrie has played twice and been well beaten twice so despite his run to the the semi-finals of the Volvo World Match Play in the spring, I couldn’t touch him with a bargepole against Brandt Snedeker, who will have gained a big boost from reversing their first day foursomes defeat against McIlroy and McDowell yesterday in a nervy contest. Indeed it’s a surprise that Peter Hanson – who beat Snedeker in the Accenture Championship – hasn’t been pitched into battle with the debutant but Snedeker, who went from unconsidered to leading contender within a month after winning the Tour Championship, is brilliant with the putter so should really enjoy these greens today and is a worthy favourite, even if he is odds on.  

Advice: 2 pts Brandt Snedeker (5/6 general) 3-2 USA

11.58am CDT, 5.58pm BST: Dustin Johnson (11/10) v Nicolas Colsaerts (11/8)

This should be a real treat as two of the biggest hitters in world golf go head to head in a crucial match. The late maturing Dustin Johnson is unbeaten and if he didn’t need enough of a mental advantage with the Medinah galleries pushing him on, he holed the putt that denied Colsaerts anything from their fourball match yesterday. It was very harsh on the Belgian, who was so good on Friday on one of the finest debuts in the history of the competition. Nicolas is a real fighter and played superbly yesterday, so I wouldn’t be wanting to take him on given that he’s the reigning world matchplay champion. 11/8 about the Belgian is tempting but might just be best left today.

Advice: Nicolas is more than capable of bouncing back and taking a massive point for Europe but he’s just a touch too short. 3-3

12.09am CDT, 6.09pm BST: Zach Johnson (6/5) v Graeme McDowell (11/8)

Graeme McDowell has shown animal like qualities this week despite winning just one point from three this week but it can’t possibly be forgotten how  famously beat Hunter Mahan to win the Ryder Cup for Europe at Celtic Manor. Zach Johnson has had an excellent two days so far and was denied only by Poulter, so will fancy his chances of dogging this one out.

Advice: Johnson can use home advantage to beat of McDowell but not one that can be called confidently. 4-3 USA

12.20am CDT, 6.20pm BST: Jim Furyk (11/8) v Sergio Garcia (5/4)

Sergio Garcia has been an expensive failure so far for us and he may be best opposed against Jim Furyk, who beat McIlroy and McDowell in a reverse of his opening day defeat in the foursomes. That will give him a lot of confidence and things get even better with his strong singles record (Won 4, Lost 2, Halved 1) compared to Garcia’s, who himself has lost four out of five singles in this competition. Fuyrk become just the fourth many in history to win all his points in the Presidents Cup and has the confidence and support to overturn the Spaniard.

Advice: 1 pt Jim Furyk (11/8 Betfred) 5-3 USA

12.31am CDT, 6.31pm BST: Jason Dufner (10/11) v Peter Hanson (2)

Jason Dufner is making his debut in this competition but has an excellent chance of holding what might possibly be the winning putt against Peter Hanson, who has had a lack of competitive practice, even then being thumped alongside Paul Lawrie in the foursomes on Friday evening. Hanson lost to a below par Phil Mickleson two years ago and is very vulnerable down the order to Dufner, who could easily have faltered under the Poulter barrage but made him fight for every birdie.

Advice: 2 pts Jason Dunfer (10/11 Ladbrokes) 6-3 USA

12.42am CDT, 6.42pm BST: Matt Kuchar (11/10) v Lee Westwood (8/5)

Lee Westwood has an excellent Ryder Cup record but a very poor singles one – He’s won 2 and lost 5 of his 7 – and he’s had a disastrous tournament, blowing a great lead in the opening day foursomes and being totally carried by Colsaerts' performance. Matt Kuchar has to be the bet.

Advice: 1 pt Matt Kuchar (11/10 Ladbrokes) 7-3 USA

12.53am CDT, 6.53pm BST: Steve Stricker (evs) v Martin Kaymer (15/8)

 The USA – holding such a large and commanding lead – may well have regained the trophy by the time this match reaches the back nine. As such, this match is really best avoided despite Stricker being quite a tempting option against Kaymer, who has lost the only match he’s played so far.

Advice: Stricker should win this, but that’s reflected in the prices and the Cup might be over by then. 9-3 USA

1.04am CDT, 7.04pm BST: Tiger Woods (4/5) v Francesco Molinari (23/10)

Tiger Woods has had a dreadful Ryder Cup record and is pointless going into today. With that in mind and the fact that he’s the last match possible, why should anyone back him to beat Francesco Molinari in a match that may well be halved before the end?

Advice: Leave well alone. 9-3 USA

VERDICT: The USA can romp to an emphatic victory in the Ryder Cup by winning the Singles event that they’ve so dominated. Much has been made about the strength of this team but it’s worth underlining that they’ve got 7 major champions here, with the course being set up for more than one – the lack of rough at Medinah is sure to suit Watson, Mickleson and Bradley especially – and the superior putting skills shown by the home side may well be more evident than ever in this format. Having already advised the win beforehand, there seems to be little other outright value barring an acca of the most confident choices. – Mickleson, Dufner, Bradley, Furyk and Snedeker.

Already Advised: 4 pts USA to win Singles (4/5 Ladbrokes)

Acca: Mickleson, Dufner, Bradley, Furyk and Snedeker (19/1 Sportingbet) 

European Focus - 30th September 2012

Juventus threw down one of the strongest claims yet to posting a strong title defence when thrashing Roma 4-1 in Turin last year and Napoli can keep pace with them in posting a victory at Sampdoria. Walter Mazzari’s side just missed out on the Champions League last year but they won the Coppa Italia and suffered only from devoting so much effort to a strenuous Champions League group stage which saw them take on Bayern Munich and Manchester City.

With just the Europa League this time round there’s nothing to stop Mazzari’s side and a super impressive start has seen them take 13 points from their opening 5 matches, with the most impressive performance being their 3-0 thrashing of Lazio which saw Edinson Cavani (pictured) score a hat trick and miss a penalty as well in a comfortable success that has marked them down as serious title contenders. Sampdoria have impressed so far this season and will be no pushovers either, but their fixture list has been a little easier (Napoli have already played Fiorentina and Lazio, albeit at home) and this is the toughest test they’ve had so far by a long way.

Elsehwere on the coupon, Inter – marked down by this page as the closest challengers to Juventus this season – have been good to their word as they lie in fourth place, with the caveat that they’re on the road. A start of 5 straight away wins without conceding a goal is an incredibly impressive record, but their home form has been absolutely dire. Inter have played five home games so far in all competitions, resulting in defeats by Hajduk Split, Roma, and Siena, and draws against Rubin Kazan and FC Vaslui. Fiorentina, who were so impressive against Juventus on Tuesday and really should have beaten the defending Champions, are easily the toughest visitors to the San Siro so far (they lie unbeaten despite having played 3 of last season’s top 5) and yet can be backed at 12/5 for three points tonight, which is a no brainer at the prices.

Over in Spain, Atletico Madrid make appeal to continue their fantastic start to the season against Espanyol, who haven’t kept a clean sheet so far this season and are coming into this game with just a point from their opening 5 games, while Athletico have won their last 6. Espanyol are yet to keep a clean sheet this season and have conceded three goals on two occasions already while the Diego Simone’s men have scored at least three goals in five of their last six games, which makes the odds against offered on over 2.5 goals very appealing, so backing the two options makes a whole lot of appeal, with a bigger stake on over 2.5 to make up for the fact that  the hosts are unbeaten in their last four home matches against Atletico Madrid. Real Madrid’s tie has no interest for us, as Jose’s men can’t be trusted until they get on a real run of domestic form.

Advice – Serie A

2 pts Napoli (6/5 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Fiorentina (12/5 Ladbrokes)

Advice – La Liga

2 pt Over 2.5 goals in Espanyol v Atletico Madrid (4/5 general)

1 pt Atleico Madrid to win and over 2.5 goals in the game (12/5 Bwin) 

Premiership - 29th September 2012

Everton (4/9) v Southampton (2/5)

Everton were brought back down to earth with a shoddy showing in the League Cup but this outfit is much stronger and have far too much for Southampton, who have been very poor at the back despite packing a serious punch or two going forward. With both teams being best going forward, this game looks set for goals and over 3.5 along with both teams to score. Everton are 7/4 with to win while conceding, and that might be a sensible option to take on value grounds.

Advice: 1 pt Everton to win while conceding (7/4 Coral)

Fulham (7/2) v Manchester City (5/6)

Manchester City have attracted a few criticisms lately due to a lacklustre defensive start to the season but they’ve not played too badly so far this season and people are beginning to overreact to their title chances given that they’ve played no worse than neighbours United so far. A trip to Fulham is hardly ideal though, so both teams to score might be the best option given that it’s banked in City’s last 6 games and the last 4 meetings at the Cottage between these two teams. Those who want to side with City should try the HT/FT result; Fulham have conceded six of their seven league goals in the first half while City have led at the break in every PL game but Liverpool and Stoke, two places they’ve never had great records at.

Advice: 3 pts Both teams to score (8/11 Betfred, Stan James), 1 pt Manchester City/Manchester City (15/8 Bet Victor)

Norwich (10/3) v Liverpool (4/5)

Liverpool are desperately unlucky not to have a win from their games so far this season – they should have beaten both Manchester clubs at Anfield and have only really been deservedly beaten by Arsenal – but their goalscoring woes will always hold them back and with such a young team out (3 teenagers, although they were admittedly good against West Brom in midweek). On paper that should beat Norwich, but they looked good in patches against Newcastle and will at the least put up a stiff defensive test of their home fixture against West Ham as anything to go by. Unders is the call.

Advice: 1 pt Under 2.5 goals (10/11 general)

Reading (19/10) v Newcastle (17/10)

Reading are currently bottom of the table with just a point from four games while Newcastle are eighth, but you can still get prices of upto 2/1 available about the club which scored in 16 of their 19 away league games last season. Newcastle were good against Norwich and deserved the three points, and they have more than enough defensive and attacking quality to get a result here.

Advice: 4 pts Newcastle (17/10 Bet Vicitor)

Stoke (evs) v Swansea (7/2)

Stoke have been fiercely competitive despite failing to register a single win so far, but even then they look underpriced to beat Swansea at odds on prices. Swansea’s fast start to the season has been badly stumped but if they were to bounce back to their best then they might present a stiff test. Four of Stoke’s 5 have been under 2.5 and that’s the call once again, although the draw should be considered.

Advice: 2 pts Under 2.5 goals (4/5 Blue Sq)

Sunderland (evs) v Wigan (14/5)

Sunderland would be very deserving of a first League win here but they’re hard to trust against opponents as Idiosyncractic as Wigan, who are capable of winning jus this kind of game, have won 3 away games this season and have started this campaign much better than they usually do. Backing both teams to score might be the best option.

Advice: 2 pts Both teams to score (17/20 Bet Victor)

Manchester United (3/5) v Tottenham (11/2)

Manchester United have won their last 6 – infact they’ve won all their games since losing 1-0 to Everton – but have been thoroughly unconvincing in all those performances and have been bailed out by their insane reserves of talent  upfront, and in the case of last week, a disgraceful referring performance. Tottenham are actually quite tempting at 11/2 but they’ve have not won at Old Trafford since 1989 and are still finding themselves under AVB. That said, both teams to score has banked in all but two of United’s games and plenty of Spurs, so doubling that with a United win looks to be the safe option.

Advice: 2 pts Both teams to score (8/11 general), 1 pt Manchester United to win without conceding (2/1 Coral) 

Sun Chariot Stakes 2012

3.00 Newmarket

Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner £90,736

Advice: 2 pts win Elusive Kate (5/2 Hills, Bet365)

Treble: 1 pt Steeler (5/2, 1.55 Newmarket), Rosdhu Queen (5/1, 2.25 Newmarket), Elusive Kate(5/2 Bet365, 3.00 Newmarket) (73.5 Bet365)

Chachamaidee: Confirmed herself a top class filly with performances last year and even better this season, winning Lennox Stakes with ease over 7 furlongs and bouncing back in style from disappointing effort there next time to win Matron Stakes in Stewards’ room; That was slice of fortune but hardly undeserved so far and should take a hand in the finish.

Siyouma: Progressive this season and 10 furlong third in Saint Cloud Group 2 proven kickstart to two good group 1 efforts, first when behind Elusive Kate and third in Falmouth (heavy ground) before fifth in Prix Jean Romanet; Decent filly but get the feeling that she must have it soft to be making impact here against faster fillies.

Beauty Parlour: One of most highly rated fillies in Europe following her demolition job in Prix La Grotte and French Guineas win (margin doesn’t do justice to how good she was at finish despite the form not amounting to much); First defeat but probably best effort hen second in French Oaks to Valyra, pulling well clear of the rest of the field in tandem although well beaten in the end; Since moved to Cecil yard in interim but should enjoy being back at a mile and big chance.

Elusive Kate: Had promised much when clear cut winner of Prix Marcel Boussac last year but return had been put back at least two months by soft ground, so incredible effort to come second in Falmouth on seasonal comeback on ground bordering on heavy; Then given excellent ride when completely dictating terms in Rotschild to beat Golden Lilac and once again excellent from the front when third in strongest Jacques Le Marois of recent seasons; Should go very well here.

Gamilati: Looked as if shed’ failed to bring her best 2yo (or indeed very early season 3yo) form to the table when a well beaten favourite having never landed a blow in the Oak Tree Stakes; Much better effort in Doncaster Group 3 latest but needs to find a lot more. 

La Colllina: Looked to have big future when winning Phoenix Stakes at Curragh as 2yo but gone backwards since, her latest effort being a flat fifth in Matron Stakes (behind Chachamaidee and Laugh Out Loud); Needs to improve.

Laugh Out Loud: Disappointed considering the strength of her previous form in Coronation Stakes although she may not have been quite in love with the soft ground;  Fourth in Matron Stakes but not far behind Chachamaidee, so don’t be surprised if she proved capable of landing a blow or two.

 

Up: Just behind Beauty Parlour in French Guineas (flattered to do so) and unlucky to be s0 much further behind her in French Oaks, although she’s been exposed since despite winning Group 3 and Group 2 on last two starts; Has speed but doubt she has class to win race of this calibre.

VERDICT: A strong renewal with all eyes surely to be on Beauty Parlour on her first start for Henry Cecil and her first start since the French Oaks, where she as generally judged to have gone too soon over the 10 furlong trip. Back at a mile she should take some beating but may have an equal at least in ELUSIVE KATE, who was been terrific this season since a belated comeback and has the strongest piece of form based on her third in the Jacques Le Marois behind Excelebration and Cityscape. At the prices, ready preference is for the Gosden filly to beat not only the Cecil filly but also a potentially strong challenge from Laugh Out Loud. 

Cheveley Park Stakes 2012

2.25 Newmarket

Jaguar Cars Cheveley Park Stakes (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1)  (2YO only)

Winner £92,721

Advice: 1 pt win Rosdhu Queen (5/1 Stan James)

Treble: 1 pt Steeler (5/2, 1.55 Newmarket), Rosdhu Queen (5/1, 2.25 Newmarket), Elusive Kate(5/2 Bet365, 3.00 Newmarket) (73.5 Bet365)

Baileys Jubilee: Has really improved hand over fist for more racing and more restrained tactics of late, coming second (well beaten) to Roshdhu Queen after two excellent efforts in France; Didn’t want the ground that soft in France latest but this much harder and needs more.

Ceiling Kitty: Rapid progression through midsummer saw her cap off fine hat trick when beating Hoyam in Queen Mary at Royal Ascot; Balloted out of Nunthrope so first run since when fourth under penalty in Flying Childers (once again ahead of Hoyam); Should go well here with that run behind her and interesting her even if others look like they could progress further.

Hoyam: Never quite got a chance to show her true form just yet despite York Listed win, twice getting badly interrupted passage when behind Ceiling Kitty, first when unlucky not to win Queen Mary and then when blocked and made to switch in Flying Childers; Easily held by Maureen on Ascot form (Sandreamer too, which puts her behind Rosdhu Queen) so that offputting but

Jadanna: Held her head high since excellent start to season when fifth in Queen Mary, third in Cherry Hinton and then runner up in Sailsbury Listed event, but all of those leave her behind key form rivals and others are much preffered.

Jillnextdoor: Behind several of today’s rivals when eight in the Queen Mary and hard to see how she’s improved that much even with her in in Ffos Las maiden latest.

Maureen: One of the most impressive maiden winners seen all season when coasting clear (well backed beforehand) on Newbury debut, and since laid down top 2yo credentials with desperately unlucky second in Cherry Hinton and then conclusive success in Queen Margret Stakes at Ascot.

Roshdhu Queen: Showed speed and precocity to win Ripon maiden event (beat three subsequent winners) and Newbury Listed race (posted the fastest time of the day); Followed up with Lowther win just 6 days after Listed win hen game from the front, having raced keenly early on but repelled all comers; Should go very well here despite the slightly stiffer 6 furlong test and makes appeal.

Sendmylovetorose: Beaten unlucky Maureen to complete hat – trick of wins on testing ground over this trip in Cherry Hinton; Disappointing when only seventh in the Moylgare last time but get the feeling that the trip stretched her and that she needs soft ground; Dropped back in trip but needs in soft at the least.

The Gold Cheongsam: Improved hand over fist since Albany, winning maiden and nursery (under topweight) and then valuable sales race(had bottom weight) clearly improving at rate of knots but this a whole different kettle of fish.

Upward Spiral: Justified support when coming clear of Jubilee Diamond at Sandown on debut and fourth in Queen Mary (behind Hoyam and Ceiling Kitty); Beaten on return at Doncaster in conditions event but that her first run back so hard to be critical.

Winning Spiral: Comfortable winning debut over 5f at Sandown then followed up with extremely impressive 6f Listed win at Salisbury when she had plenty in hand over Jadanna; Should come on for that and take the beating here with stiff finish not a problem given stamina on dam’s side.

VERDICT: A strong looking renewal on the face of it with the best of the 6 furlong fillies so far taking eachother on, even if none of them look Guineas contenders. Maureen arguably should be unbeaten, having been unlucky when second in the Cherry Hinton when just behind Sendmylovetorose and a convicting winner of the Princess Margaret Stakes. She should take the beating today but faces a stiff test from Winning Express and ROSDHU QUEEN, who will really take the beating if settling and thus seeing out the full six furlong fully. Her Lowther didn’t look to be a great race beforehand but several lines of form give her a strong chance and at 11/2 she looks to be the best value. Of all the established fillies from the early season, Hoyam might be best of them if getting the clear run she’s been denied on to occasions behind Ceiling Kitty. 

Royal Lodge Stakes 2012

1.55 Newmarket

Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1)  (2YO only)

Winner £56,710

Advice: 1 pt win Steeler (5/2 general) 

Treble: 1 pt Steeler (5/2, 1.55 Newmarket), Rosdhu Queen (5/1, 2.25 Newmarket), Elusive Kate(5/2 Bet365, 3.00 Newmarket) (73.5 Bet365) 

Al Waab: Danehill Dancer colt out of a useful 1m2f who was deeply promising in two easy wins over the July Course (7f) before stepping up to a mile when just beaten by Group 3 winner Havana Gold at Haydock when trying to pull him back on flatter mile than this; Should go well.

Artigiano: Coventry fifth who has since gotten even closer to Olympic Glory on two occasions, firstly when fourth in Superlative on July Course and then when second in the Vintage (on 3lbs better terms); Should enjoy the mile and be aggressively ridden, so interesting if not more exposed than most.

Birdman: Really effective on heavy ground, closing fast on Olympic Glory during the Superlative Stakes and then closing third in the Futurity Stakes without ever looking as if he’d get to the line in time; This looks harder than both of those assignments and ground likely to be too quick for him.

Excess Knowledge: Being a half-brother to Rain Mac out of 1m4f Listed winner, was always going to be one for next year so did very well to win slowly run race on his debut before second in the Washington Singer Stakes that his trainer had won three times in last 7 years; Back at a mile, he can go well although this is a very tough renewal.

Fantastic Moon: Showed his scope for improvement when beating four previous winners in novice event on July course and telling late turn of foot when winning Sandown’s Solario Stakes marked him out as an extremely promising colt for the future; Form is as strong as any but really exciting to see just how much improvement he finds for the mile.

Mocenigo: Should have no problem with the extra furlong given that his dam was a winner over 1m2f and just over 2 lengths behind Fantastic Moon last time in Sandown Group 3 last time, but little chance of turning that form around.

One Word More: Lost no caste in finishing third to Asdan last time out at Doncaster but when he was second in Deavuille Listed contest he showed promise for the future and that race worked out fairly well at the least; Lot of ground to make up with the principals on that form.

Steeler: Showed significant promise on first two starts when clearly crying out for a mile and best effort yet when runner up in York’s Acomb Stakes, coming from behind to give Champagne Stakes second Dundonell a good race in latter stages, where he wasn’t helped by the slow gallop; Found trouble in running at Goodwood but still won nicely and expect to see best of him at a mile today on this track.

VERDICT: Being out of a Park Hill winner, STEELER was always going to need a mile so his hugely encouraging efforts over seven furlongs are just tantalising considering the likely strong pace and stiff finish that should prevail today. While he faces a very strong field, there’s reason to believe that he can find a great deal of improvement for the step up in trip and on that basis – especially given a line through Dundonell, who has since come a close second to Toronado in the Champagne Stakes, the pair in turn clear of Thair, who Fantastic Moon only just beat in the Solario (albeit coming from behind with more to come). Fantastic Moon should relish this test of a mile and did well to thin the Solario so must be the main threat, while Alfonso De Sousa must be respected as one of 4 Ballydoyle entries given their record in the race, although he was behind Steeler who in turn should improve. Al Waab will enjoy the stiff finish and has had a recent form.  

Rugby Championship 2012 - South Africa v Australia

It was Bobby Orr who said ‘Forget about style; worry about results.’ and today angry Springbok fans can get a bit of respite from their recent disappointments as South Africa give a convincing beating to Australia on home turf in today’s first Rugby Championship game. Australia have won their last 5 meetings with South Africa, but there’s been a massive amount of luck and Springbok error involved in those victories and everything finally seems set fair in South Africa’s favour to put things right today.

Home turf is a massive vantage in International Rugby like no other but Loftus Versfield is a special place. Only New Zealand, the Lions and England have won in 30 tests there and the Boks also possess a record of 5 wins from 5 matches at this venue against Australia.

With South Africa being so much better at home their away performances are hugely encouraging. They led 13-6 at the break against Australia and were the better side for long periods of the contests before costly defensive mistakes cost them dear (the scores were level with just 12 minutes to go) but they were even better against New Zealand, where they lost 21-11 but missed 20 points off the tee alone thanks to the wastefulness of Morne and Frans Steyn. It belied criticism of a one-dimensional game plan that involved the fly-half Morne Steyn hoisting the ball high into the air and putting pressure on the All Blacks to commit errors, which worked better than anyone else could have imagined with a whole batch of kickable opportunities. This doesn’t even take into account the certain try missed by Bryan Habana when the last pass just went astray, which in total makes it an astonishing 25 points just thrown away. Make no mistake, it was a game they should have won with some ease last week but back at home with high altitude to help them, kicking should be that much easier off the tee and Australia present nowhere near the threat that New Zealand did offensively while their defence is more than breachable for a side boasting the forward power that the Boks can boast of.

Robbie Deans has won a remarkable 10 of 14 matches in the past year with three defeats combing against the All Blacks, but at least half of those could have been losses (and heavy ones at that too) and Australia’s injury problems are at their worst point ever under Deans. James Horwill, James O'Connor, David Pocock and Drew Mitchell are already out of the side but Quade Cooper – who just this week labelled the atmosphere in the camp as “toxic” – has already been reprimanded after his potentially season ending injury, pushing Kurtley Beale into the No.10 spot. Beale is a top class 10 and Pat McCabe still offers a threat, but the rest of the team doesn’t look upto scratch and if South Africa can’t win this time around, it’s hard to see when they’ll arrest the slide. Look for the hosts to lead from the front and cover a seven point handicap, with 49 points or more also looking to be the call.

Advice

3 pts South Africa -7 (10/11 general)

1 pt South Africa -3 on half time handicap (5/6 general) 

Ryder Cup 2012 - Pointscoring previews

The top scorer betting for the Ryder Cup is a hugely competitive affair, although there’s one key fact that can be used to instantly eliminate quite a few players – who plays the first sessions of foursomes and fourballs. With this coming at the tee time off the third fourball, we already know who’s playing who and we can eliminate everyone who’s not in the four matches taking place at the moment.

After that, the key decision is now who will be suited by Medinah, the long sweeping venue used for the 1999 and 2006 USPGA tournaments. Back then the course was typical of an American major layout. Long, tough and sharp. And today it still is, except for the massive modifications made by Davis Love III which have completely changed the outlook of the course as we know it. With several of the US team so good with the drivers, Love has demanded that all the rough on either side literally be cut down to such a level that even I could get out of it – and anyone who has seen me on Clifton Hill’s driving range will testify that I’m not exactly impressive - with only 20 yards of a very light first cut on either side of the fairway creating an 40 extra yards of hitting space.

Good putting – as with any form of golf – is a must although especially more so on these sharp greens, but big drivers will be at an extra advantage and tee to green specialists even more so. Of the Europeans playing now, Ian Poulter and Luke Donald would be my choices to get a full five games here and with both having course form – they were sixth and ninth in the USPGA at Medinah in 2006. Donald has never been on the losing side in a Ryder Cup and his staggering 77% success rate tells us all we need to know, while Poulter will get 5 games and also has never lost a singles match.  He can also outscore Steve Stricker, which is a no brainer given the pair’s records.

A happy Garcia is usually a winning one 

Sergio Garcia is good enough if on form but has lost four singles matches and makes far more appeal for the top continental European, where his other opponents haven’t got the games this morning. He currently trades at 4/5 on Betfair and looks to be yet another banker to add to our portfolio. In any case, this is Nicolas Colasterts’s first Ryder Cup and Peter Hanson isn’t in the same class.

For the US, things are less clear cut, but if there’s one man who should get all 5 games (barring Woods, who started awfully in the morning) then it may be Dustin Johnson, who has been in excellent form during the Fed Ex Cup and has the fairways wide open to suit him.

Advice – Top Pointscorer

1 pt each/way Luke Donald (12/1 general)

1 pt each/way Ian Poulter (18/1 Boylesports)

1 pt each/way Dustin Johnson (14/1 general)

Advice – Top European

1 pt each/way Luke Donald (6/1 general)

1 pt each/way Ian Poulter (8/1 general)

Advice – Top American

1 pt each/way Dustin Johnson (9/1 general)

Advice – Specials

4 pts Sergio Garcia top Continental European points scorer (4/5 Betfair)

4 pts Ian Poulter to beat Steve Stricker (4/5 Bet365)

Ryder Cup 2012 - Day 1, Session 1 (Foursomes)

The Ryder Cup kicks off with one of the best events at the tournament, the alternate shot foursomes, one of the sport’s unique sights as one of the true elements of team golf. In "foursomes", two players alternate hitting the same ball, from tee shot until a putt is made. They also alternate who hits the tee shot on each hole. So, regardless of who makes the putts, player one would hit drives on the first, third, and fifth holes, while player two hits the tee shots on the second, fourth, and sixth holes. Below each match is rated.

Jim Furyk/Brandt Snedeker vs. Rory McIlroy/Graeme McDowell: With the course at Medinah having been opened and cut away – there is literally no rough at all and the fairways have been opened enough to allow even the most wayward bombers to compete, so Rory should really fancy his chances standing at fifth in the driving average list on this season’s PGA Tour. He performed poorly at Celtic Manor but is a much wiser player now and won his foursomes match with McDowell two years ago, so they are fancied to pair up to good effect here. Furyk and Snedeker are a similar kind of matchup, but this can go to Europe.

Advice: No bet at prices, but preference is for Europe. 1-0

Phil Mickelson/Keegan Bradley vs. Luke Donald/Sergio Garcia: One of the marquee matchups, with three of the biggest players in the same match, and Bradley is already a major champion in only his second year on the PGA Tour. Bradley is a debutant though and Mickleson has lost 5 of his foursomes, while Luke Donald and Sergio Garcia, have a combined 14 wins, 1 tie, and no losses in Ryder Cup foursomes. No contest.

Advice: 4 pts Donald/Garcia (10/11 general). 2-0

Jason Dufner/Zach Johnson vs. Lee Westwood/Francesco Molinari: This is harder to predict. Dufner is making his debut but he’s a late developer in general, and his age is clearly helping rather than hindering him – and his 70% of green shots is a really encouraging for the approach to the sharp greens. Johnson, who is the shorting hitting off the two, is a sensational putter who’s finally getting a chance to play at home having gone to the K Club and Celtic Manor, while he’s been given a playing partner that really suits him. Westwood and Molinari are very good tee to green players, but have suffered nerves on the greens at the big stages before and may have to give second best again.

Advice: 5/4 is tempting about the Americans given their putting dependency, but the tee to green ability of the Westwood/Molinari pairing means it might just be best left. 2-1

Steve Stricker/Tiger Woods vs. Ian Poulter/Justin Rose: Tiger Woods has a notoriously poor Ryder Cup record although the pairing of him and Steve Sticker (who won their foursome convcingly two years ago) should work well, That said, they’re very short in comparison to the 13/8 offered for Poulter (top points scorer combined at Vallhalla) and Rose, who teamed up for two points in the first three sessions two years ago. At the prices, only one team stands out.

Advice: 1 pt Poulter/Rose (13/8 Betfred). 3-1 Europe

VERDICT: Europe have won the first morning's session in four of the last six Ryder Cups and they should feel very confident about taking the foursomes, a session in which they lead 37-27 over the history of the tournament. Only two players - Peter Hanson and Francesco Molinari - own losing records compared to an American record which sees Only Matt Kuchar (one from one) own a winning record. Olzabal’s matchups contrast strong winning records (Luke Donald has won all six of his games, Sergio Garcia is eight from 11, Lee Westwood has won seven from 13, Ian Poulter two from three, Justin Rose two from four) with the best tee to green approaches, and that can see them take a convincing lead, as they will need to do to retain the trophy. Back the visitors for a 3-1 lead.

Advice: 3 pts Europe (6/4 general), 3-1 Europe (6/1 general) 

Ryder Cup 2012

They key decisions involved in the choice making of seeing who wins or loses at this year’s Ryder Cup have never been so varied or wide ranging. Approaching the start of today’s epic battle at Medinah, exceptionally strong cases can be made for both the USA and Europe in what has to be one of the closest Ryder Cups on paper ever seen in the modern era.

Do you go with the home advantage of the Americans – not forgetting the small statistic that six of the last seven Ryder Cups have been won by the hosts - who have a combined world ranking of 146,(81 spots better than the Europeans), seven major champions, Woods, Mickelson, Watson, Bradley, Simpson, Zach Johnson and Furyk), 5 of the top 10 in the PGA Tour's Birdie or Better Conversation percentage stats over this season, have lost only once at home in 15 years, an extremely proficient captaining setup – Davis Love Jr has already wasted no time in using many of Paul Azinger’s winning methods and Fred Couples has seen the USA Team to victory in the last two renewals of the Presidents Cup – and to boot, the whole of the Medinah course and it’s 50,000 strong Chicago galleries behind them.

Likewise, do you go with the experienced and strong Europeans, who can boast eight winning records in the tournament - win percentage is over 50 percent – with even the three who aren’t in that bracket (Rory McIlroy, Peter Hanson and Francesco Molinari) all having contributed to Europe's victory at Celtic Manor. World No.1 Rory Mcilroy Luke Donald (No. 3 overall world ranking), Lee Westwood (No. 4), Justin Rose (No. 5), Graeme McDowell (No. 18), Sergio Garcia (No. 19), Peter Hanson (No. 25), Ian Poulter (No. 26), Paul Lawrie (No. 28), Francesco Molinari (No. 31), Martin Kaymer (No. 32) and Nicolas Colaserts (No. 35), all give them just as strong a team as the US on the work rankings – even if there is a gap of 81 spots in the accumulative rankings?

 

As has been noted by many, playing in the US is also far from a new thing for the Europeans. McIlroy had always been tipped for big things but made his name in the US and was clearly the Fed Ex Cup’s best player despite missing out on the overall victory, something that will matter little to him with this motivation, Westwood, Rose, McDowell, Kaymer and especially Garcia and Luke Donald (more on them later) have excellent US records, large fan bases and even homes in the case of Westwood, who has moved to try and capture an elusive major triumph. The Europeans have the better matchplay records, more senior figures, have won 6 of the last 8, and have a combined record of 60 wins, 32 losses, and 18 halved matches compared to 41 wins, 59 losses and 16 halves for their counterparts.

Admittedly one would say the Americans have the better players for Medinah – which has been completely changed from the tough course that greeted Tiger Woods on his way to two major triumphs in 1999 and 2006 at the request of Davis Love Jr – but the European’s foursomes (they lead 37-27) and fourballs (36-28) records may give them the fast start they need and with momentum in the Ryder Cup being such a crucial element of success, it’s very tempting to back the Europeans at a big 13/8 considering that their one hammering here can be explained in large part to Nick Faldo’s awful captaincy. If they can get into an early lead and nullify the crowds then the chances of victory become very immediate and significantly greater than the odds suggest, and just 8 years ago Europe claimed a record 18.5 points here when hammering the home team after a strong start. If the visitors get a lead again then it might not be long before the galleries are quietened down. From that perspective Europe might make appeal at 13/8 in the long run for the Trophy, but whatever happens this should be desperately close and with half of the last ten Ryder Cups have finished with a score of 14 ½ - 13 ½, then both sides to win by that scoreline makes great appeal on value terms.  

I couldn’t put anyone off backing either side to win the trophy – at the prices the Europeans represent value but the USA only went down by a point at a raucous Celtic Manor and will fancy their chances of turning things around on their own turf – but the strongest selection offered here is the 4/5 on the USA winning the Sunday singles, an event in which they have an extremely strong record (they have 43.5 points to Europe’s 40.5) despite two thrashings in recent cups and 3 thrashings in recent years. This is one of the best squad of putters that they’ve had, and regardless of the situation heading into the final day, their class should shine on extremely sharp greens with the course basically made for the likes of Watson, Dufner, and Woods to shine while giving generous helping hands to Phil Mickleson and Zach Johnson.

Advice

1 pt USA to win 14 ½ - 13 ½ (10/1 general)

1 pt Europe to win 14 ½ - 13 ½ (11/1 general)

4 pts USA to win Singles (4/5 Ladbrokes) 

Today's Racing - 27th September 2012

Lady Rotschild has had the season of her wildest dreams and things could get even better for her ahead of Nathaniel’s bid for Arc glory when her Gallipot attempts to get black type on the board in today’s Princess Royal Richard Hambro E.B.F. Stakes (3.10) at Newmarket on the first day of the Cambridgshire meeting. From the all-conquering John Gosden team – shooting hard for the trainers title following the eclipse of Ballydoyle’s triple crown hope in Camelot – Gallipot has improved hand over first at the backend of this season, finally coming good with a couple of clear cut AW handicap wins off and 82, and she then took that form to a new level when a staying on fourth in a solid renewal of the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster last time out. She finished just over a length down on Wild Coco – extremely strong form given that one’s two wins from two this season – while she was around a length closer to her than Jehanndarc did at Glorious Goodwood, so a lumpy place bet with a small win wager seems to be the way to go.

The Queen’s pair have plenty going for them on form – both Set to Music and Sequence are clearly talented enough to take a hand – but Set To Music is having her first race back since 7 weeks off with a 3lbs penalty and this is much the hardest task that Sequence has faced despite her sharp recent improvement. Elias Diamond and Khone are very interesting at this trip especially and Bana Wu must be respected, for all that in Gallipot we have an in form horse who should be able to make the best of this trip.

Richard Hannon’s Havana Gold is a hot favourite to underling his burgeoning reputation with a fourth win in five starts in the Somerville Tattersalls’s Stakes and for good reason (3.40) but Lady Rothschild may hold the trump cards again with the promising and underrated stablemate Gleam, who was turned over at evens on his second career start at Salisbury last time in circumstances that didn’t suit the son of Ravens’s Pass. Another who should enjoy the good ground here (as his dam Harvest Queen was best on a quick surface), this should be run at a far stronger tempo than the three runner conditions stakes that saw him turned over last time and anyone who watched his maiden win would know that he’s a lot better than that defeat suggests and well worth a try in Group 3 company, so the 12/1 on offer looks far too big.

1 pt win, 4 pts place, Gallipot, 3.10 Newmarket (9/2 general, evs Ladbrokes)

1 pt win, 1 pt place Gleam, 3.40 Newmarket (12/1 general, 7/4 general) 

Capital One Cup 2012/13 Preview

Lovingly known as the “mickey mouse cup”, a trophy that teams only pursue when they’ve got nothing else left to play for, and somehow, it’s found a sponsor for yet another year. Credit where credit’s due to Capital One for fronting up so that we can have another round of midweek fixtures, although the Capital One Cup is about as bad as it gets in terms of embarrassment.

Manchester United have enjoyed the League Cup of late and could well
be celebrating once again

With so many teams not caring for the trophy, one would be inclined to think that it’s best to look outside the established “Big six” and look for some value, but recent results tell us differently. Since 2000, 9 of the winners have come from a select group of four teams – Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, and Tottenham – and with three of those wins coming since 2006, Manchester United look to be the value of the Premier League giants at 9/1.

Sir Alex Ferguson’s side are not impervious to an upset or two in this competition - Coventry won at Old Trafford a few years back and last season Crystal Palace did likewise – but barring that they have a strong record in this trophy (100 match wins in this competition - only five clubs have won more) and their attacking strength in depth may give them the edge. This will be the last thing on their list of targets but you get an idea of the strength in depth that United have when Nick Powell, Alex Buttner, and David de Gea may play against Newcastle despite Tottenham coming to Old Trafford this weekend, while a front four of listed strikers – Rooney, Hernandez, Wellbeck and Van Persie – is surely going to result in at least one or two of them playing while the likes of Antonio Valencia regularly got games in this competition last season. In defence Phil Jones and Chris Smalling may get an outing or two and considering the heavy rotation that other sides will take, they look to have very strong claims of going all the way this year.

After reaching three League Cup finals in four years Chelsea's recent record in the League Cup has been surprisingly poor, having failed to make it to the quarter-final stage for the last four seasons following defeats to Burnley, Blackburn, Liverpool and Newcastle. However this time around their squad strength may well force them through to the latter stages of the competition after the influx of midfield talent during the summer. Cahill, Terry, Bertrand, Ramires, Romeu, Mata, Torres and Moses are all starting tonight’s first round tie against Wolves and while it’s not likely that the side will be that strong through the rounds, Cesar Azpilicueta, Marko Marin and Lucas Piazon are the sort of names that can come in and it’s a sign of intent that Roberto Di Matteo’s naming a team of that strength just a few days before a trip to an unbeaten Arsenal side. With the luck of the draw on their side, they look to be live runners despite the Club World Cup in December threatening to change their plans.

Arsenal  are known for finding gems in this competition but that strategy ironically has prevented them from winning it, and they’ve got less strength in depth than ever this time around. Expect to see some top players emerge through the campaign, but one of the bigger teams may have more firepower like Manchester City did when taking vantage of a naïve performance at the Emirates last year.

City themselves have the strongest all round squad of any side in England and may have diverted more attention towards their semi-final with Liverpool (who were taking it very seriously last season)  thanks to an extremely congested fixture list - with five Premier League fixtures and a Manchester derby double all in one month surrounding their semi final clash.

However the fact that Toure, Rodwell, Milner, Barry, Kolarov, Tevez, and Balotell are in a side which has been completely replace since Sunday’s 1-1 draw with Arsenal shows the strength in depth that they have, so despite being away after every single round of the competition (and with some tricky sides too in that run) they have to be hugely respected, although 6/1 is short for a competiton that won’t be high on the list.

Liverpool were hugely deserving winners last season, getting the reward that they deserved for going full pelt at the competition last year – they were drawn away in every round and beat Manchester City and Chelsea on their way towards the cup – but with their poor start to the League this year their side will be nowhere near as strong and there are better options. With the Premier League so competitive this year, nobody else makes any real appeal for this with the competition so low on the priority list until late on.

Advice

2 pts Manchester United (9/1 general)

1 pt Chelsea (8/1 Stan James) 

UCI World Road Championships - Elite Men's Road Race

A quite terrific year of Cycling comes to an end – with only minor UCI Tour events to go – when the men take off for the Elite Road Race in the World Championship. Often a difficult event to predict – barring last year’s sprint finish where the course allowed for it - this year’s parcours is one of the most competitive yet.

The main decider is the Cauberg, renowned for its prominent role in the Amstel Gold Race, used in both the TTT and ITT so far this week, used 10 times with a maximum gradient of 12%, part of a leg sapping 265km, which also features 7 short and sharp climbs beforehand over the 100km loop through the province of Limburg, before part two sees us take in winding Bemelerberg (900m with a max gradient of 7%) and the game-changing Cauberg (1.5km with an average gradient of 5.8%), all used 10 times.

To start with finding the winner, the first thing to be done is to exclude the pure sprinters. There may be a 1.7KM flat section to the finish but the sheer amount of climbing done is enough to discount them, with the flat section coming after the 10^th use of the Cauberg. The second is to be looking for riders who have a strong record in the Ardennes classics – long races which take in climbing and sprinting, usually like the Amstel Gold, La Fleche Walonne, and Liege Bastogne-Liege – as they bear the most similarities towards a race like today’s instead of pure sprint or mountain stages.

Second is the team strategy and team strength. Mark Cavendish’s victory last year was down to huge amount of work from team GB on the front of the Peloton, and all this had been planned for a good year beforehand (‘Operation Rainbow Jersey’).

Taking all this into account, it’s easy to see why Philippe Gilbert, a two time winner of the Amstel Gold, one of two winners of all three spring classics – and numerous stage races across the world, is a heavy favourite. Gilbert has had a troubled year, yet still won two stages of the Vuelta a Espana with relative ease, beating off a talented cross section of sprinters and punchers including Alejandro Valverde on Stage 19. After an incredible year which brought 18 wins, he’d suffered a huge loss of form and condition, but a successful attack on Stage 9 of the Vuelta was just the tonic. His Belgian team is one of the strongest in the race – De Weert, Devenyns, Meersman, Vansummer, Rolendants, and Boonen if he decided to ride in the team – so the 3/1 avlaible on him winning is fair, if not a little short.

Peter Sagan, a relatively unknown sprinter a couple of years ago, has undoubtedly been one of the highlights of the Tour De France this year with his three stage wins, but he’s got the attitude and skills needed for classics as well. We’ve already seen him on steep uphill climbs, we know he can break, and we know he can outsprint everyone here if it comes down to a bunch sprint, but he’s lost some of the condition that he’d held from his Tour De France exploits by his own admission and does look a touch short.

It’s 10/1 the field bar them, andAlejandro Valverde (far left) looks to be a solid wager at a general 10/1. Second in the Vuelta A Espana this year, Valverde lost a lot of time in the red jersey after crashing early on Stage 3 but was rarely not seen on the finish of a stage afterwards, including relatively  flat ending to stages 9, 17, 19, and 21, and as a three time medallist here, he looks like a very solid shout to lead the Spainish challenge and claim his first rainbow jersey today. The Spainish team – most of which may well be riding in support of him- is just incredibly strong with Contador, Rodrgiuez, Friere, Moreno, Sanchez, Flecha and Castroviejo all potentially in support – while we know he’s capable of attacking hard up a climb and sprinting on the flat, so 10/1 – especially with Brefred offering 4 places at ¼ the odds and 9/4 for a medal seem generous.

Simon Gerrans - fourth in the GP De Montreal when trying to follow up from his Québec win -has nothing like the support that Valverde can count upon but his punchy style – a win at the Milan-San Remo is a testament to his ability while he does have Porte, Rogers and Clarke supporting him, so he is worth having in the portfolio both win and place. The Australian team has secured a place on the world championship podium for the last three years, so we have a team with a proven track record

If we’re talking about puncheurs, then the one man who comes to mind instantly has to beThomas Voeckler. One of the most popular riders in World Cycling, Voeckler was one of the highlights of this year’s Tour De France with his ultra-attacking style and heart on his sleeve mentality, and has had the whole of the French team (barring Jerome Coppel, who is in the break ) to help his cause.

Manager Laurent Jalabert has used his full allocation just to create a team that’s set completely around him, which could prove to be a wise move given how well we know Vockler can handle the most brutal stages of the Tour, while he also has a strong classics profile. Fourth and fifth in Amstel Gold and Liege Bastone Liege, he could be massively overpriced at 20’s having talent a real interest in the event.

Advice

1 pt each/way Alejandro Valverde (10/1 Betfred)

1 pt each/way Simon Gerrans (16/1 Betfred)

1 pt each/way Thomas Vockeler (25/1 Betfred)

European Focus - 22nd September 2012

PSG’s start to what was expected to be their biggest season since the 90’s had been underwhelming for some following draws against Ajaccio, Lorient and Bordeaux, but Carol Anecelotti’s side have finally hit their stride proper and now look like the team to beat.

A 2-1 win at Lille provide t be just what they needed to kick start their season, as a home win against Toulouse has now seen them rise to fourth place and on Tuesday they were as impressive as any side in Europe when smashing Dynamo Kiev 4-1. Cohesion has been a while coming for the expensively assembled side, but they looked well capable of fighting with Europe’s best during an impressive 4-1 destruction of Dynamo Kiev, with three goals coming from somebody other than talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic – scorer of 6 of their 7 goals so far in Ligue 1 this season.

Little and Toulouse lie 11^th and seventh respectively which isn’t such bad form on the domestic table and today’s opponents Bastia (Ligue 2 winners last year) have let in 19 goals already and suffered here straight defeats on the bounce. PSG are a different class to those two sides, so the 8/11 with Hills looks well worth taking.

Over in Germany, the feature game is far more even than Bastia v PSG will ever be, with Champions League sides Schalke and Bayern Munich meeting in the headline fixture of the Bundesliga so far this season. Schalke have made a truly excellent start to the season, winning two of their three games to keep their unbeaten start to the season going with wins over Greuther Furth and FC Ausburg, while Tuesday's 2-1 Champions League win at Olympiakos was a real achievement considering the Greek’s home record (and the fact that they missed a penalty).

That said, Bayern’s start to the season has been just as impressive. One of few teams left in Europe to hold 100% records in the League thanks to a 3-0 win at Greuther Furth, a 6-1 demolition of Stuttgart at the Allianz Arena, and a 3-1 home victory against Mainz, while they were clearly the better side in their 2-1 win over Valencia in midweek.  Mario Mandzukic has maintained his excellent form from Euro 2012, scoring six goals in six games, while their 1^st XI has class stamped all over it. Jupp Henyckes will only have the end of the season on his mind but Bayern can continue their fine start with a win at their rivals.

Advice

3 pts PSG (8/11 Hills)

1 pt Bayern (5/4 Blue Sq)

Today's Racing - 22nd September 2012

1 pt each/way Unex El Greco, (14/1 general), 1 pt win Kirthill (5/1 general), 3.10 Newbury

John Gosden’s had one of the best seasons of his life so far and while a win in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap might not register on his list of achievements, Unex El Greco has a big chance of giving him  yet another big Saturday win in today’s 10f handicap at Newbury.

For a horse who can be more than a handful at times, Unex El Greco has had a relatively consistent season, with his two best efforts – a second behind Area Fifty One where he was clearly the best of those ridden from off the pace, presumably in an effort to make sure that he got the trip, and a half-length defeat of Prussian where he made hard work of things after cruising into the lead – give him a better chance than odds of 14/1 would suggest.

He was horribly disappointing when eighth off only 4lbs higher than his previous start at Newmarket last time but he may have been badly unsuited by trying to force the pace and then racing on his own up the centre of the course alone.

Harjas is interesting if his latest off day can be forgiven – he has met trouble on his last two starts – as he’s 3lbs better off with Expense Claim on their earlier meeting. He mustn’t get going too late but has the potential to land a blow here if kept with the pace early.

Of the big three, Mister Music and especially Kirthill make the most appeal. With Richard Hughes in such fine form, Mister Music makes a lot of appeal despite a heavy nine race season. It’s a worry that he’s found such trouble this year but he’s clearly got a big chance. Readers of the page should know all about Kirthill though, who’s been flagged up since Royal Ascot before his win last time. Of course he has to deal with top weight but his yard’ exceptional record in this – won three of the last 5 renewals including with a similar type in Forte De Marmi a couple of years ago, who also carried top weight and had previously won last time as well – and he looks to be well worth a saver at 5/1.

Premiership - 22nd September 2012

Swansea (2) v Everton (6/4)

A cracking start to the day’s games. Swansea’s red hot start to the season has been held up a bit by defensive errors that cost them a win at Sunderland and didn’t help their cause against Aston Villa, and there’s no doubting that the visit of Everton – who were desperately unlucky not to beat Newcastle on Monday – is their toughest task yet.

Advice: 2 pts Everton (6/4 general)

Chelsea (2/5) v Stoke (8)

Chelsea will be annoyed at having let a two goal lead slip against Juventus but they’re still top of the Premier League and could be set for a big title challenge if carrying on from their impressive start so far. Stoke have drawn all their games so far but are slightly lucky not to have lost at least two of them, have failed to score in each of their last four visits to Stamford Bridge in all competitions, and should be easily beaten today – Chelsea to win to nil appeals considering how they have three clean sheets in 4 Premier League games already.

Advice: 1 pt Chelsea to win to nil (11/8 Skybet)

Southampton (31/20) v Aston Villa (2)

Southampton have yet to register a point after 4 games but few would have thought they could get something out of the top three from last year, while Wigan themselves are a good side. It’s easy to forgive them those defeats and they were unlucky to lose to both Manchester Clubs (especially United), but they showed significant defensive lapses on all occasions and Aston Villa, buoyed by a decent win against Swansea, are likely to prove tough opposition having improved greatly over the past two weeks.

Advice:  1 pt Aston Villa (2/1 general)

West Brom (5/6) v Reading (7/2)

West Brome were roundly beaten by Fulham last weekend but will get few better opportunities to bounce back than against Reading, who were extremely poor against Tottenham despite improving in the second half and let Chelsea back into the game through costly defensive errors. At home they’ve beaten Liverpool (3-0) and Everton (2-0) and in between drew at Spurs, and a similar performance should see them win and win well.

Advice: 5 pts West Brom (5/6 general)

West Ham (5/4) v Sunderland (11/4)

A tough one to weigh up. West Ham’s physical style has seen them win their two games so far but Aston Villa and Fulham might not be the best travellers and therefore not the most reliable formguide. Sunderland have drawn all three games but those came against Arsenal (A), Swansea (A) and Liverpool, so they’ll clearly be tough to beat and at 4/6 to avoid defeat, look worth supporting.

Advice: 1.5 pts Sunderland/Draw (4/6 general)

Wigan (6/4) v Fulham (9/4)

Wigan have made a decent enough start to the new season but old defensive flaws came through when they blew a lead twice going down to Stoke here and they were poor in the second half against Manchester United. Fulham are hardly the best travellers o the PL circuit despite a tempting price of 9/4, and the goals that decide this could be few and far between.  The last 4 meetings at the DW have gone under 2.5 goals and that looks to be the wise choice once agiain.

Advice: 1 pt Under 2.5 goals (4/5 general)

Liverpool (15/8) v Manchester United (9/5)

The contrasting fortunes of these clubs couldn’t be more different – United are a close second following three wins on the bounce following an opening night loss to Everton, while Liverpool are languishing at the foot of the table with just two points – but the gap between the two is a lot close than many think and Brednan Rodgers’s side are the value here. Liverpool may be winless so far but they’ve played Manchester City, Arsenal, and Sunderland (away) in their first three games while West Brom proved their worth by beating Everton 2-0 soon after dispatching the Merseysiders with the help of two very dubious penalties. The Merseysiders should have beaten Manchester City and Sunderland, while United so far have been very unconvincing in all four of their games from a performance perspective, especially in midfield and defence with Fulham, Southampton and Everton especially finding far too much space through the midfield, an area which Liverpool expertise in – they’ve had more of the ball in 9 of their games this season. With key centre backs still injured, they look badly unbalanced from midfield and defence and if Liverpool can put enough pressure on a leaky centre back pairing – and they’ve made more than enough chances to win each game they’ve played in so far barring Arsenal - there’s every chance of them making it 5 Anfield wins from 6 games against United.

Advice: 2 pts Liverpool (15/8 general)

Newcastle (17/20) v Norwich (4)

Newcastle haven’t made the blistering start this year that they did to last season’s campaign but they’ve been playing very well and should be well capable of beating Norwich, who offered little going forward against West Ham at home. Newcastle showed resilience to snatch a late draw at Everton and continued in the same vein when hitting the post 3 times in the Europa League with a much weakened squad.

Advice: 3 pts Newcastle (17/20 Bet Victor)                                                           

Tottenham (4/9) v QPR (6)

Tottenham’s start to the season under AVB has been slow but things seem to have clicked with excellent performances against Reading and Lazio in the past week. Spurs were unlucky to have 3 goals chalked off against Lazio in midweek and are capable of scoring in both halves against QPR, who have let in goals on both sides of the half time whistle twice away from home.

Advice: 1 pt Spurs to score in both halves (6/5 Paddy Power)