Friday, 26 August 2011

UEFA Super Cup 2011 Preview


The loss of Andre Villas Boas to Chelsea and Falcao to Athletico Madrid has left many to think that Porto will be completely unable to cope with the world’s best side in Barcelona, with the Portuguese Champions as big as 17/2 to win in Normal time.

Barcelona are the superior side but they’re 4/11 to win in 90 minutes here, which is no value despite their brilliance. Only one of the last seven Champions League winners have gone on to win the European Super Cup in normal time, with 4 Champions League winners, including Barcelona themselves, getting overturned in the 90 minutes.

Guardiola will be without defender Gerard Piqué, who tore his calf in training last Tuesday, while Carles Puyol is unavailable after undergoing surgery to repair damaged cartilage in his left knee in June, which does leave a gap for Porto to take aim at.

Many have taken the view that Barcelona need time to get fit, but I would have no excuses on that score following the 5-0 demolition of a full-strength Napoli team in the Joan Gamper Trophy, especially with several first team players missing after the small matter of an El Clasico double header which saw them come out 5-4 winners on aggregate.

While Porto didn’t have to do half the work of Barcelona last season going unbeaten all season was a remarkable achievement and their Europa League win had to be one of the best campaigns seen in recent memory .

To replace their summer offload of Falcao, brought in Brazilian striker Kléber, who scored 16 times for Palmeiras last year. They also acquired Steven Dufour from Standard Liege while Freddy Guarín and Silvestre Varela scored 10 and 12 times respectively last season, which leads me to believe that Barcelona may be made to work for the win tonight despite their class. The Draw/Barcelona double result makes appeal at 7/2, more than the 1 goal winning margin. Also, the Porto/Barcelona double result at 28 is well worth a chance based on stats over the last few seasons.

Four out of 6 matches in this competition have seen the first goal come after 21 minutes, so Paddy Power’s offer that the same happens again is tempting at 10/11 – It may take longer than that for the game to open up.

Advice

2 pts First Goal after 21 mins (10/11 Paddy Power)

1 pt FC Porto/Barcelona double result (28/1 Totesport)

1 pt Draw/Barcelona double result (7/2 Coral) 

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