Monday, 29 August 2011

La Liga - Barcelona v Villarreal

As Ashley Young curled in his second screamer of the match, you felt that only one team in the world could have matched the level of performance which Manchester United (and for that matter City) gave. Barcelona make a triumphant return to League football, but as is the norm with them they’ve still managed to add to the trophy haul, scoring plenty in the process.

A 5-4 win against Real Madrid in the Spanish Supercup has reminded Madridstas everywhere that the Catalans are still top dogs in La Liga, while a 2-0 win over Porto could have been any amount of goals they wanted.

Barcelona’s defence, normally so underrated – Is missing a few key players. Adriano picked up a muscular injury in the 2-0 triumph over FC Porto, and Dani Alves is suspended, having accumulated five yellow cards in the previous season.



This wouldn’t be such a problem if Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol were out injured already, which has to be a concern against last season’s 4th place finishers, fresh and fit from a good routing of OK Odense in their Champions League play – offs, while taking all the appeal of fanciful scores and wins to nil out of the equation.

Guardiola does have plenty of room for manoeuvre -  a midfield trio of Cesc Fabregas, Xavi and Andres Iniesta could guarantee midfield domination – while Keita and Abidal have an assured feel in possession.

Games between these two often tend to be competitive (unsurprisingly) – Last time these two met a sensational Valdes save from six yards out meant the champions left El Madrigal unscathed – and Nilamar’s strike here brought the two level for a good half an hour and even then the only thing separating the sides was the sheer brilliance of Lionel Messi.

Villarreal are hard to beat at home but have a poor away record – They won only 5 on the road last season and while pre – season form can’t be trusted with counterfeit they sent out a makeshift side to lose away to Wigan, and only beat Everton in pre – season by a single goal before their loss at Odense.

The above suggests that the value may be more in stats betting. Paddy Power set a goal line of just 19 minutes which may well be worth taking on – Three out of their first 5 games had goals coming in after the 19th minute last season – and Villarreal should prove harder than most to beat for Barcelona, with only one loss in their last 4 visits here. The home side are the ones that I’d want to be with though after a few preseason games to sharpen up, so back 3-1 to the home side as a bit of cover with Betfred at 10’s, with a Barcelona win not to nil also a tempting 6/4 with Coral.

Advice

3 pts First goal after 19 mins (5/6 Paddy Power)

1 pt 3-1 Barcelona (10/1 Betfred)



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