Lonsdale Cup 2011 - York Ebor Meeting 2011 (Day 4)

3.05 York

Weatherbys Insurance Lonsdale Cup (British Champions' Series) (Group 2) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner £79,394

Advice: 1 pt win Duncan (5/1 general) 

Blue Bajan: Ran as well as he has ever done when second in 1m6f Yorkshire Cup in second run back from over a year off and travelled like a dream when landing Henry II Stakes at Sandown; No shame in Gold Cup defeat and weighted to reverse form with Blue Bajan.

Dandino: Took major handicap double at this meeting and Royal before close Group 3 third in Gordon Stakes (form worked out); Flop in St Ledger but noteworthy run in Japan Cup, coming only eight lengths behind top class opposition; Impressive return followed up by courageous win in Jockey Club Stakes on first two starts this year, and only real failure has come when seventh in German Group 1 last time; 2 miles is a it of a blind spot but one of the best horses in the race.

Duncan: Quirky horse; best ever season last year, with a Hardwicke second added to with a win in the Foy on trials day; Not up to it in the Arc but boasts some of the best form claims and underlined those with win under penalty (battled well) in Yorkshire Cup to begin the season; Sixth in Yorkshire Cup but clearly didn’t handle 2m4f and big chance down in trip, hopefully with the caveat of settling better.

Opinion Poll: Made steady progress last season when winning Group 2 event and threatened to take a Group 1 last season, with creditable efforts in top staying races; Fourth in Longchamp Group 2 more than satisfactory effort and career best when second in Gold Cup last time out, suffering a slightly trouble passage; Followed that up with perfectly times challenge to win Goodwood Cup and should go close, although he’s badly in with Blue Bajan now.

Allied Powers: Winner of 2 Group events last year (Grand Prix & Prix H’edouville) before creditable, although not particularly notable, Group 1 runs; Steady improvement in performance this season before poor showing in Newmarket Listed race and while he was back to form last time out, others make more appeal.

 

Bergo: Has fair bit of class and stamina in abundance, as he showed when winning the Queen Alexandra Stakes at this meeting last year and good runs in UAE and Goodwood Cup show that he retains that talent but this likely to be too quick for him all over again.

Chiberta King: Seemingly lost his way a little bit but back in form the last thrice, when fourth in fiercely contested long – distance handicap before winning easily; Made to work hard for Listed success last time out at Sandown and may owe that in part to a very strong finis; Seemed held in Goodwood Cup and some may be stronger.

Harris Tweed: Progressive front runner thoughought 2010, winning big Musselbrugh handicap with plenty to spare before taking two listed races; Hard at it from long way out in Ormonde at Chester May meeting and Hardwicke second even better; Should make a bold bid having gone down to thoroughly progressive types the last twice.

Elyaadi: Good second in Queen Alexandra Stakes but always held in a dour grind, and looked outpaced when well beaten at Dundalk; Might want further than this nowadays.

Highland Castle: Showed promise when third and then first in pair of good maidens and better performance when managing to make up late headway (had dropped himself out) in Haydock handicap; Looked as if step up in trip would suit but this probably a much harder task.

VERDICT: Opinion Poll makes a lot for appeal based on his Goodwood Cup win but the margin between him and Blue Bajan is too tight to call and DUNCAN, dropped back to a trip which should suit, may be able to beat him if settling. Dandino also makes appeal.