Premiership - Stoke v Chelsea

The managerial prowess of Sir Alex Ferguson has dominated the Premier League for the last few years but how well Andre Villas – Boas (pictured) copes with the challenge of managing Chelsea will have a massive impact on the race this season.

That marks this morning have spoken in favour of their opening opponents Stoke and doubted Chelsea and this given a magnificent opportunity to back the second placed team, who gained 28 points away from home, at 10/11. There are some reasons to oppose the blues but far more to back, as seen below.

Chelsea were second by nine points and there’s no reason to think that gap will be reduced on it’s own – United have added to their squad with Phil Jones from Blackburn, David de Gea from Atletico Madrid to replace Van de Sar in goal, along with Ashley Young from Aston Villa – while many are now beginning to doubt the Chelsea squad.

That’s probably too quick an assumption to make - the likes of Ashley Cole, Frank Lampard, Didier Drogba and John Terry can walk into most sides – but the focus for many seems to be on the future and new signings Romelo Luaku and Oriel Romeu offer plenty of promise, while the likes of Josh McEcheran and Gael Kakuta should be the kind of players that Chelsea look to.

There’s a good vibe coming from Stoke this season. They consolidated another steady season in the Premier League with a 13th place finish and the FA Cup runners up spot, and there’s scope to improve on that this season.

Stoke also have a brilliant home record which saw them pick up 34 points at home, and their ability to pick up points from losing positions makes this a real contest – They got 11 from such scenarios last year.

As already said in the team by team preview, the beauty of a Tony Pulis side is that it doesn’t need many additions year on year but Jonathan Woodgate, if brought to and kept at full fitness, is a stead from Tottenham for three and will be able backup for Robert Huth, while Matthew Upson was one of few highlights for West Ham last year.

Most of this should point to Stoke proving real tough obstacles for Chelsea and value at 9/2 but some research, aided by Opta and Soccerbase – shows that Chelsea are fearsome starters and rarely get beaten on their seasonal debut in the Premiership.

A remarkable Opta stat is that Chelsea have won their last nine opening day fixtures, the longest run of its kind since the Premier League started, and the longest such current run of any side in the four tiers of English football.

But then I went and looked for something which was even more impressive – their away opening day record, which reads:

Wins for CFC in first away games of season over past 10 years: 9,

To nil: 4

HT/FT: 3

Opponent/Chelsea: 2

Draw/Chelsea: 2

So Chelsea rarely lose when on their opening travels. What we can also glint from this is that the HT/FT market is volatile in this game and with the average first goal coming from Chelsea at 52 munities, the Chelsea/Chelsea double result doesn’t make all that much appeal at 2/1.  But can be worked out is that Chelsea nearly always win on the first day of the season and they may be the “value” to do so again.

Advice

3 pts Chelsea (10/11 general)