When looking at the York Ebor, the first thing I noticed was
that 9 of the last ten winners had been drawn in the top 7 stalls, which is understandable
if you look at how the runners tend to drift over towards the near side.
That gives us a shortlist of Mystery Star (17), Mount Athos
(18), Halicarnassus (19), Tactician (20), Lost In The Moment (21) and Saptapadi
(22). The claims of the favourite are obvious but there’s no denying that he’d
have won the Goodwood Cup with a clear run and that form entitles him to be the
price he is, and he’s worth having in the portfolio as a back – up even if he’s
not your first choice as his progression may not have stopped yet and already
proven in Group company, he can go well.
The other from that list I would be selecting is Blissful
Moment, who has come second in two good handicaps that have worked out well,
not least when going down only to Fox Hunt, who has since proven himself in
Group company (just behind Lost In The Moment) at Ascot over 12 furlongs two
starts ago.
With just seven career starts to his name he fits the bill
as a progressive type and has probably been put away for the race given that he’s
not run since Royal Ascot, which has also given him a workable handicap mark of
98.
Of the others, Modun is a progressive horse but this trip is
a big unknown and only two winners hadn’t already won over 12 furlongs in a
handicap. Admittedly he’s all but won at 12 furlongs and I’m a big fan of his
but he doesn’t hold the extremely strong group form that some here hold and a
draw of 2 could have been kinder.
Saptapadi also holds strong claims but those are well known
and he’s not one I could advise against or for strongly, with his form last
time out having been boosted twice since in big style, and I prefer his claims
to those of Tactician, who might well get taken on for the lead following is
win in a C&D handicap.
The one of the bigger priced fancied I would be with was
Cill Rialaig, who show down a handicap good thing In Imposing at Royal Ascot
last year and has only run twice since, notably when not getting a clear run
and going down only to Sea Of Heartbreak and Mirror Lake, two pattern class
performers, with progressive 3yo Polygon behind. 20/1’s a bit of an insult and
she should go more than well, and if the price of the two recommended picks,
she’s the one I would go for.
The weights for the Melrose Stakes are dominated by the O’Brien
pair but both have questions to answer. Admiral Of The Red was beaten by two
older horses but neither was anything special in the Curragh Cup when he looked
one paced and off 102 (a mark which is higher than even that of his maiden win)
he should struggle here.
The same stable’s Apache went from looking like a vastly
improved horse having broken his maiden with ease to then looking very awkward
in the King George V Handicap and he can’t be trusted until showing some
improved form after that – If he pulls like he did then he won’t stay this
trip and there has to be a doubt about how good he actually is.
This leads me to Communicator, who was staying on having
been miles out of his ground in the King George Handicap at Royal Ascot in soft
ground. The second and winner have since proven to be Group class and over a
longer trip and better ground it’s hard not to see him going well. Another good
mention goes to Masaraat, who comes from the jockey/trainer combo who have won
two recent renewals of this race.
Advice
0.5 pt each/way Lost In The Moment, 3.40 York (8/1 Hills)
0.5 pt each/way Blissful Moment, 3.40 York (11/1 Ladbrokes)
0.5 pt each/way Communicator, 2.30 York (11/1 Hills)
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