England v India - Only T20 Preview

Youth is once again the focus of England’s limited over squad with the home side and World 20/20 Champions giving Twenty20 debuts to Alex Hales, Somerset’s Jos Buttler and Durham’s Ben Stoke, led by Stuart Broad, who will be hoping that his improved fortunes can carry over into captaincy  - Or at least improve from the time when he and his team were hammered by nine wickets at Bristol (by Sri Lanka).

Now that Test domination is assured, the focus turns towards dominating all formats of the game like the West Indies when they dominated in the 80s and likewise the Australian side of the 90s. England are world champions in this format thanks to a run of eight straight T20’s before losses to Australia and Sri Lanka. That makes them worthy 8/11 favourites here although with a changed team in all aspects, there’s better value to be found.

Despite many new faces for England, India still make no appeal on the basis that they will field nowhere near their best squad. They have won their last four T20s but Virender Sehwag, Yuvraj Singh, Ishant Sharma, Zaheer Khan and now Gautam Gambhir are all missing the game, leaving them short in both departments.

Their battling line up reads - Parthiv Patel, Ajinkya Rahane and Rahul Draviduresh Raina, Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma and captain MS Dhoni – None of whom are in good touch based on their test series.  RP Singh might well get a bowl after his shocker at the Oval but the biggest boost for India is surely the return of Praveen Kumar, who came out of the 4-0 whitewash with 12 wickets despite having missed a test.

Sachin Tendulkar starts and will be more than motivated to get his 100^th hundred, after a test series full of inconstant knock in which he never truly threated to get to the magic total, Tim Bresnan’s removal of him being more inevitable than anything. The 5/2 about him getting top bat is fair but with their line-up so badly shaken, it could be worth taking a poke at Suresh Raina, top scorer in four of their last eight and likely to come in at 5 according to ESPN, which would leave him with the best chance to score after an experimental top order. 13/2 is big, as Sporting Life’s Dave Tickner has already noted.

While that’s the case, India’s top order looks in no form and their T20 starts – Below 20 against South Africa and the West Indies, with several openers going for low scores in their WC success – they might be worth backing to make under 23 runs between them (before the loss of the 1^st wicket). I was going to go for England to have the highest opening Partnership as well, but they’ve had a few low scores among the openers of late and more appeal lies with Praveen Kumar at 3’s for top bowler. I was going to swerve this on fitness counts but he’s played against Sussex and Leicestershire (one wicket both times) and should be at home in this format and hasn’t got much to go against in this market.

Advice

2 pts India Opening Partnership to make under 23 runs (5/6 SkyBet)

1 pt Suresh Raina top India Batsman (11/2 Bet365)

1 pt Praveen Kumar top India bowler (3/1 general) 

La Liga - Barcelona v Villarreal

As Ashley Young curled in his second screamer of the match, you felt that only one team in the world could have matched the level of performance which Manchester United (and for that matter City) gave. Barcelona make a triumphant return to League football, but as is the norm with them they’ve still managed to add to the trophy haul, scoring plenty in the process.

A 5-4 win against Real Madrid in the Spanish Supercup has reminded Madridstas everywhere that the Catalans are still top dogs in La Liga, while a 2-0 win over Porto could have been any amount of goals they wanted.

Barcelona’s defence, normally so underrated – Is missing a few key players. Adriano picked up a muscular injury in the 2-0 triumph over FC Porto, and Dani Alves is suspended, having accumulated five yellow cards in the previous season.

This wouldn’t be such a problem if Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol were out injured already, which has to be a concern against last season’s 4^th place finishers, fresh and fit from a good routing of OK Odense in their Champions League play – offs, while taking all the appeal of fanciful scores and wins to nil out of the equation.

Guardiola does have plenty of room for manoeuvre -  a midfield trio of Cesc Fabregas, Xavi and Andres Iniesta could guarantee midfield domination – while Keita and Abidal have an assured feel in possession.

Games between these two often tend to be competitive (unsurprisingly) – Last time these two met a sensational Valdes save from six yards out meant the champions left El Madrigal unscathed – and Nilamar’s strike here brought the two level for a good half an hour and even then the only thing separating the sides was the sheer brilliance of Lionel Messi.

Villarreal are hard to beat at home but have a poor away record – They won only 5 on the road last season and while pre – season form can’t be trusted with counterfeit they sent out a makeshift side to lose away to Wigan, and only beat Everton in pre – season by a single goal before their loss at Odense.

The above suggests that the value may be more in stats betting. Paddy Power set a goal line of just 19 minutes which may well be worth taking on – Three out of their first 5 games had goals coming in after the 19^th minute last season – and Villarreal should prove harder than most to beat for Barcelona, with only one loss in their last 4 visits here. The home side are the ones that I’d want to be with though after a few preseason games to sharpen up, so back 3-1 to the home side as a bit of cover with Betfred at 10’s, with a Barcelona win not to nil also a tempting 6/4 with Coral.

Advice

3 pts First goal after 19 mins (5/6 Paddy Power)

1 pt 3-1 Barcelona (10/1 Betfred)

Formula One: Belgian Grand Prix - Thoughts on Qualifying and Race Preview

The trip into the forest, the rollercoaster that is Eau Rouge, the masterful and brilliant Pouhon corner and the kart-like, mesmerising second sector, writes guest blogger Sebastian Ampofo. To some people, this may seem like a load of gibberish. But to a lot of F1 aficionados around the world, this natural ampitheatre I have just described is the legendary Spa-Francorchamps circuit, which hosts Round 12 of this year's Formula One World Championship, a championship which Sebastian Vettel has dominated, despite not having won a race since Valencia all the way back in June. He even managed to extend his championship lead in the last race in Hungary.

This natural ampitheatre has always been subject to a very precarious and unpredictable natural climate, such was the case in Practice and probably less so in qualifying. Q1 and Q2 required the drivers to go out on the intermediate tyres, and this wet period of qualifying was not necessarily a useful barometer as to the race pace performance of the front runners. The McLarens looked strong in the wet conditions in the hands of Button and Hamilton, with Hamilton going top, albeit briefly in Q2 with a 2:02.8 on a drying track.

This has in some part, something to do with the good mechanical grip and traction that the McLarens have, especially this year, which is absolutely pivotal in wet conditions. And despite the frantic worries that there would be flurries of rain during qualifying, it actually turned out that it got drier and drier with Q3 enabling the runners to put on the soft option slick tyres.

The emphasis was very much on McLaren and Ferrari "ganging up" so to speak, against Red Bull and taking the fight to them. But as Anthony Davidson, BBC Radio 5 Live commentator, said in Practice, the drivers from McLaren and Ferrari would continue to take points from each other, making Vettel's job of extending his championship lead easier. What a far cry from the days of the late 90's when McLaren and Ferrari were very bitter rivals, and this rivalry exploded at this very track in 1998 - when Schumacher, trying to lap Coulthard, slammed into the back of him on the straight after Bruxelles, resulting in Schumacher going after Coulthard in the pitlane.

Special mentions in qualifying must go to Heikki Kovalainen of Lotus,  who outqualified Paul di Resta of Force India by a second. Granted, this is di Resta's first visit to Spa Francorchamps in an open-wheeled car since 2005, and with the wet conditions in practice, he probably hasn't had enough dry running to acclimitise himself with the circuit. It wasn't a good day for Force India generally (which is ironic considering their success in 2009 when Fisichella grabbed pole position with a stunning lap) with Adrian Sutil crashing out in Q2 after losing the rear end on the exit of Eau Rouge towards Raidillon, taking off his front wing and damaging his nose in the process. The fact that Sutil lost the rear end was probably a reflection of how nervous in general the cars looked. It was rumoured that many of the teams were going to sacrifice qualifying performance to go on a predominantly-dry setup for the race, as Ross Brawn had said on the BBC's pre-race coverage.

Q2 was beset by further incident when late in the session and pressured to do a good lap after slipping down to 12th, Lewis Hamilton overtook and made slight contact with Maldonado on the exit of the Bus Stop chicane. Once Hamilton had done his hot lap (2:02.8) and upon slowing down on the short straight between La Source and Eau Rouge, Maldonado, as if he was asleep quite frankly, turned in on Hamilton, damaging Hamilton's front wing and causing substantial cosmetic damage to his sidepod. Perhaps a slice of revenge of Hamilton's antics in Monaco which led Maldonado to retire at St. Devote.The stewards will surely investigate what surely seems to be a piece of dubious driving on Maldonado's part, and surely, he must get a penalty for his dirty tactics.

However, Q3 was not full of incident, but rather full of blistering pace and was more of a better reflection of how the front runners were shaping up. Webber and Hamilton were swapping fastest laps and provisional poles, and it was looking good for Webber at a time - he has the edge in changeable conditions in qualifying, and goes well around this track having recorded a stunning pole last year. Hamilton won last year's race and his car was reported to be very quick in Sector 2 in Q1, quicker than Vettel in what is Red Bull territory. And his new rear wing means a super-efficient DRS which gives him much less drag whilst being able to set the rear wing with a steeper angle and therefore more downforce.

Just as Hamilton went quickest at the end of Q3 with a 1:48.7 and surely looking very ominous for a first McLaren pole position since Canada last year, Vettel came in with a brilliant last gasp lap five-tenths quicker than Hamilton on a 1:48.2, to snatch what would have been glory for Hamilton and Webber. A McLaren is still on the front row, despite Button being well down in 13th due to a call to bring him in - a possible miscommunication as he slid down the table as drivers set faster times on a drying track. But if the conditions are changeable, do not count out Button tomorrow - I certainly did not think he could win after 6 pit stops and ending up 21st in Canada at one point, but he was able to find grip and thread the eye of a needle of a drying track where others failed and couldn't. 

Hamilton is looking very good for a win tomorrow and he could be a threat at the start, especially with Vettel and Webber prone to tardy starts. If Hamilton gets his start hooked up with KERS, he could race away with his general speed in all three sectors. Vettel and Webber though, have excellent straight-line speed after opting for a skinny rear wing, and could be a threat on the Kemmel straight, but their speed in the second sector could be threatened by the likes of McLaren and Ferrari.

Speaking of Ferrari, Fernando Alonso was outqualified by his teammate for the second-race running as he starts in 8th, with Massa in 4th. No doubt they will be right up there with McLaren and Red Bull provided they don't take any gambles like the one to keep Alonso in the garage in Q2, which so nearly backfired. As for Massa, this race could be the perfect opportunity to prove he can still outrace Alonso - and if he gets a bad start and has a bad race tomorrow and slips behind Alonso during the race despite qualifying four places ahead, questions will really be asked about Massa's place at Ferrari and his pace with these Pirelli tyres.

Mentions in Q3 for Rosberg, qualifying 5th for Mercedes, proving their speed in the first sector with the powerful Mercedes engine, and Jaime Alguersuari in 6th for Toro Rosso, an excellent performance and a continuation of the form he has shown after Valencia. Bruno Senna in his first race for Lotus Renault GP outqualified Petrov to finish 7th in Q3, showing he does have the pace and could possibly be challenging Nick Heidfeld for a race seat in the remainder of this season. Whatever happens tomorrow, we are geared up for a great race. Have rain dropped into the mix and we could have a race which could top Canada in terms of excitement, competitiveness and euphoria. 

Travers Stakes 2011

10.45 Saratoga

Travers Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo) (Dirt) (3yo) Winner £384,615

Advice: 2 pts win Coil (3/1 general)

Bowman’s Causeway: Comes from red hot yard that saddled Stacelita for same connections to win Beverley D, but fourth behind Inglorious in Queen’s Place hasn’t stood up from a form perspective since and others preferred.

Rattlesnake Bridge: Has shown steady improvement since been handing a beating (received weight) from Uncle Mo at Gulfstream Park, and subsequent Graded efforts confirm this; That said, has failed to wind winner’s Enclosure for a while.

Moonshine Mullin: winner of the Victoria Park Stakes at Woodbine (Polytrack) but no ill effects of switching to this surface when left for dead by Stay Thirsty in the Jim Dandy and this is a far tougher test.

Ruler On Ice: Third in the Sunland Derbyn & 3-2 favourite in the Tesio Stakes, but sprung a shock when winning the Belmont Stakes and backed that up when third in the Haskell latest; Can’t be ruled out of either win or places.

Malibu Glow: Won a nine-furlong allowance contest here but that was only after he got well beaten in the Jim Dandy Stakes; Not good enough.

Raison D’Etat: Likely late developer; broke his maiden in his third start, a maiden event at Belmont Park, before good albeit well beaten second in the Curlin Stakes; This might come too far for him.

Coil: Had a three-race win streak broken in Swaps Stakes when he took a lead into the stretch only to be caught by a head at the wire in his first try at nine furlongs (giving 6lbs to second) but then underlined credentials for Sophomore crown with Haskell win from off the pace (got 4lbs from Shackleford); Can progress from that and win here, with extra distance in his favour.

J W Blue: was second in the Barbaro Stakes at Delaware Park but unplaced efforts in both the Arkansas and Rebel Stakes don’t augur too well for his chances.

Stay Thirsty: Looked set for a successful season in tandem with stablemate Uncle Mo when running out a ready winner of the Gotham Stakes but seemingly didn’t cut it when well beaten in Florida and Kentucky Derby but bounced back with second in Belmont Stakes and fully on right path with Jim Dandy win; Should be hard to beat.

Shackleford: Ran Dialed In to a head off a very strong gallop (which he set) in the Florida Derby, and underlined that effort when fourth in Kentucky Derby; Somehow managed to set fractions of 22.69, 46.87, 1:12.01, 1:37.22, & 1:56.47 but still win Preakness Stakes, and no shame in being unable to do the same in Belmont; Haskell second (giving 4lbs to Coil) game but in no way unfortunate and extra furlong a test today.

VERDICT: Stay Thirsty is beginning to come back to his best and should put up another bold show but the progressive COIL is a strong shout to claim the Sophomore title on his way to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Bob Baffert’s 3yo was better with every yard of the Haskell, has been working very well this week and is progressive enough to confirm the form with Shackleford and Ruler On Ice at level weights, having received 4lbs at Monmouth. 

King's Bishop Stakes 2011

10.12 Saratoga

Foxwoods King´s Bishop (Grade 1) (3yo) (Dirt) (3yo) Winner £96,154

Advice: 1 pt win Flashpoint (7/2 Coral)

Flashpoint: Brilliant in winning back-to-back starts to open the year going gate-to-wire to win by 6 ¼ lengths at Aqueduct, before then sprinting clear to a 7 ¼-length victory in 1:22 for seven furlongs in the Hutcheson Stakes; Not quite up to winning the Florida Derby, when he was taken on for the lead and presumably outstayed over 10f trip, and same story in Preakness; Back to best when winning Jersey Shore Stakes last time and can go well here.

Caleb’s Posse: A ready winner of the Amsterdam Handicap retuned to sprinting for the first time since last November, under a big weight as well; Should get a hot pace to run at as well, which makes him a big threat.

Runflatout: Another speedster who was only beaten a head in the Memorial Stakes after breaking his maiden on the Santa Anita dirt in his debut back in January, and just beaten a head by Coil as well, although that form can’t be read literally; Could go well.

Dominus: Sent off favourite for the Jim Dandy Stakes off the back of a front running Grade 2 win at Belmont, and drop in trip should really be a plus point; Rates a big threat here around 1 turn, another change which should suit; Possibly overpriced at 10’s.

Poesidon’s Warrior: Cruised past the leaders three wide on the far turn en route to a striking seven-length win in the colt division of the NATC Futurity, and is worth a step up in class for his Graded Stakes debut; Could go well but others preferred.

Justin Phillip: Set hot fractions (22.23s, 44.45s, had rivals beaten before turning into the stretch) when winning in the mud on Belmont Day but didn’t back that up behind Caleb’s Posse when well beaten last time out and needs more.

Uncle Mo: Threated to be a Triple Crown contender when following up Champagne Stakes victory with rousing Breeders Cup juvenile success by four lengths; Exciting reappearance seemed to confirm him having trained on until disappointing run in Wood Memorial, after which he was found to have serious illness (cholangiohepatitis, a bacterial disease of the liver); This acid test of his ability after a long break.

Cool Blue Red Hot: Broke his maiden in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Belmont before a third in the Dwyer Stakes; No reasons why he should reverse the form with Dominus.

VERDICT: All attention will be focused on the returning star Uncle Mo but this is no easy task even if he’s at his best and FLASHPOINT may be able to expose any flaws in the favourite. Granted, he would need to get to the lead but he’s shown more than enough pace to do so and was right back to his best when romping the Jersey Shore Stakes last time. Caleb’s Posse, Dominus and Runflatout also make appeal. 

Ballerina Stakes 2011

9.38 Saratoga

Ballerina Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Dirt) (3yo+) Winner £96,154

Advice: 1 pt win Sassy Image

Hour Glass: Winner of the  Vagrancy Handicap at Belmont (2010) but has found no success since, coming  runner-up to Secret Gypsy before being beaten further next time out; Beaten favourite over 6 furlongs latest.

Tamarind Hall: won four of her past five starts, topped by a dominating win in the Bed o'Roses H’cap, a race which was dominated by the blowout of Hilda's Passion, sent off a 3-10 favourite; Should go well here if able to run to that form.

Hilda’s Passion: Giving 4lbs to Sassy Image when beaten 3 lengths in the Humana Distaff (tried to make all) and much easier time of things in the Vagrancy when running out an easy winner; Blowout at 3/10 last time but training as if she’s over that and should make a bold bid to reverse form with Tamarind Hall.

Bronx City Girl: Second in the Charles Town Oaks and Regret Stakes last time but this a massive step up despite the low weight and interesting booking of Julien Leparoux.

Devil By Design: Returned form an 8 month absence to land the Chicago Handicap last time out at Arlington but has little other form worth taking about and in his contest likely to be outclassed.

Tar Heel Mome: Managed to dominate the pace and run 4 other rivals into the ground when taking the Honourable Miss handicap last time out; Has some decent claims here although pressure for lead (Hilda’s Passion has done so) a definite negative should that occur.

Sassy Image: The supposed class of the race & already a dual Grade 1 winner this year, having overcome a terrible trip which saw her upwards of 15 lengths off the pace to win the win the Princess Rooney Handicap at Calder last time out; Just a pound badly in with likely chief Rival Hilda’s Passion but the step back up to this trip should really suit and likely to take the beating.

VERDICT: It’s impossible not to be hugely impressed by SASSY IMAGE’S win last time out and with a better trip over a longer distance, she can take the beating. Hilda’s Passion can bounce back from a poor showing when last season, although Tamarind Hall could again run well while Tar Heel Mom should also go well. 

Prestige Stakes 2011

2.50 Goodwood

Whiteley Clinic Prestige Stakes (Fillies' Group 3) (Class 1)  (2YO only)

Winner £22,684

Advice: 1 pt win Regal Realm

Lady Gorgeous: Ran around just a bit when headed out of things on her racecourse debut and looked a much improved horse when getting there in plenty of time and over turning and odds – on hotpot at Newbury; Didn’t live up to that promise when 9^th in Lowther last time and others preferred.

Lily’s Angel: Raced exclusively at 5f on first 4 career starts, going through first three races unbeaten before bumping into useful pair in hot Beverley event; Only fifth in Albany (unsuited by the soft ground) and right back to form in Listed event/Super Sprint; Exposed but sure to be thereabouts based on her good second to Discourse last time out.

My Queenie: Given more than enough ground to make up when second behind Rakasa at Goodwood but let the form down when beaten next time at this trip; Doesn’t look liky to win Group races.

Nayarra: und only one too good on all 4 of her starts in maidens but this far harder so passed despite interesting booking of title chasing Kieren Fallon.

Questioning: Never in danger when creating huge impression at Newbury on debut, beating a pair who both won next time out; Step up in class no trouble and should go well.

Rakasa: Created a good impression when coming from long way back to land Goodwood maiden (my Queenie third) and will improve for the extra distance today; Should be respected for in form team.

 

Regal Realm: Created a promising impression when knuckling down well to land a Newmarket maiden but nobody could predict how well the form would have worked out (subsequent Cherry Hinton winner Gamilati in second, Albany winner in third, several other winners behind); Went down to a progressive winner on ground with cut in at Ascot and should go well here.

Verdict: Following an excellent effort in defeat at Ascot, REGAL REALM should have enough to hold off the promising maiden winners Raksa, Questioning and the solid Lily’s Angel. 

Belgian Grand Prix - Qualifying

The 4 week break since last month's Hungarian Grand Prix has seem many commentators begin to doubt Red Bull’s superiority after 2 defeats in two races for runaway leader Sebastian Vettel, who still has a vice – like grip on the title.

After Vettel won six of the first eight races of the season, all seemed set for yet more domination but he’s failed to win any of the last three races as Ferrari and McLaren have improved their pace in the races to close the gap.

 

Some of this has been down to driver skill – Jenson Button outdrove Vettel and had a superb strategy in Hungary, where he won again in the wet (making him the only man to win an F1 race at the track in wet conditions, although only have been hit by rain since the inaugural race in 1986) – But it’s clear that Vettel won’t be able to just turn up and win.

It’s no surprise that he’s 5-2 to win here but  that price makes little appeal given that he had once of his worst ever races at Spa when colliding with Jensen Button, incurring a drive through penalty and finishing in 15th position. Also, with the threat of rain around, it’s a worry that all of his defeats but China this season have been incurred when the track has had moisture in it.

That said, he still makes appeal for the pole position at 6/5 – He holds the record lap for his 2009 performance here and has only missed out on the top spot twice this season. At the time of writing, he’s showing more than enough pace for the top spot in P2 and team mate Mark Webber (above) was the pace setter,  beating Alonso by just 0.140secs, with McLaren's Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton next. That augurs well for their speed on a wet track this season and Vettel can shake off a heavy rain shower to take the top spot.

Advice

2 pts Sebastian Vettel Pole Position (31/20 Sportingbet) 

UEFA Super Cup 2011 Preview

The loss of Andre Villas Boas to Chelsea and Falcao to Athletico Madrid has left many to think that Porto will be completely unable to cope with the world’s best side in Barcelona, with the Portuguese Champions as big as 17/2 to win in Normal time.

Barcelona are the superior side but they’re 4/11 to win in 90 minutes here, which is no value despite their brilliance. Only one of the last seven Champions League winners have gone on to win the European Super Cup in normal time, with 4 Champions League winners, including Barcelona themselves, getting overturned in the 90 minutes.

Guardiola will be without defender Gerard Piqué, who tore his calf in training last Tuesday, while Carles Puyol is unavailable after undergoing surgery to repair damaged cartilage in his left knee in June, which does leave a gap for Porto to take aim at.

Many have taken the view that Barcelona need time to get fit, but I would have no excuses on that score following the 5-0 demolition of a full-strength Napoli team in the Joan Gamper Trophy, especially with several first team players missing after the small matter of an El Clasico double header which saw them come out 5-4 winners on aggregate.

While Porto didn’t have to do half the work of Barcelona last season going unbeaten all season was a remarkable achievement and their Europa League win had to be one of the best campaigns seen in recent memory .

To replace their summer offload of Falcao, brought in Brazilian striker Kléber, who scored 16 times for Palmeiras last year. They also acquired Steven Dufour from Standard Liege while Freddy Guarín and Silvestre Varela scored 10 and 12 times respectively last season, which leads me to believe that Barcelona may be made to work for the win tonight despite their class. The Draw/Barcelona double result makes appeal at 7/2, more than the 1 goal winning margin. Also, the Porto/Barcelona double result at 28 is well worth a chance based on stats over the last few seasons.

Four out of 6 matches in this competition have seen the first goal come after 21 minutes, so Paddy Power’s offer that the same happens again is tempting at 10/11 – It may take longer than that for the game to open up.

Advice

2 pts First Goal after 21 mins (10/11 Paddy Power)

1 pt FC Porto/Barcelona double result (28/1 Totesport)

1 pt Draw/Barcelona double result (7/2 Coral) 

Europa League - 25th August 2011

The gap between English and Scottish teams for whatever reason was brutally exposed when Tottenham ran riot at Tynecastle in the first leg and similar things are expected tonight at White Hart Lane. Tottenham are likely to be the centrefold of multiples up and down the land – they are no better than 3/10 to come through in 90 minutes tonight – and that position looks fully justified.

Tottenham won’t field a full strength team but the likes of Jake Livermore & Kyle Walker impressed enough against Hearts to be given starting slots at Old Trafford and the Spurs squad is more than deep enough to ensure whatever happens, Harry Redknapp can go into this game with a winning side while keeping enough in reserve for Manchester City’s visit on Sunday.

Spurs gave Manchester United a lot to think about on Monday when they did have the ball, showing that they’re just as good as ever despite giving away 40% of possession, and getting at David De Gea numerous times. 

Roman Pavlyuchenko has more than enough talent to score and is well due a start, while Jermaine Defoe may well be involved with affairs. Gomes, Bassong, Corluka, Huddlestone, Jenas, and Townsend were all on the Bench at Old Trafford – Their presence should be enough today.

It’s anyone’s guess how Hearts will respond to their tonking at the hands of Spurs and they could come out fighting but away from home their task is all the more difficult and they have a must win game against Hibernian at the weekend, so with this being a non event for them also, the advice is to go for a Tottenham win to nil. Hearts have only scored in 1 of their last 4 games and Tottenham could hold them easily at bay tonight.

In other games, Rangers now have to overturn a deficit to Slovenian Champions NK Maribor at Ibrox following an inept second half display which allowed Maribor to come from a goal behind to beat Rangers thanks to Etien Velikonja's stoppage-time back-heel.

Clearly Rangers boss Ally McCoist is of the opinion that Rangers are better than Maribor, speaking like a man who had been very much “cupset” - “I'm not pressing any panic buttons because I believe we'll go through," he said. "Honest to God, I don't know if you believe, but I think we'll do it, I really do. Without being over-confident, if we play to anything like our potential we'll go through." – which is understandable give the chances that Rangers created.

Steven Naismith and Steven Whittaker are suspended, Kyle Bartley, Sasa Papac and David Weir struggling badly to make it back in time from injury while Matt McKay and Alejandro Bedoya are ineligible.

However, to look at things that simply would be to take your eye away from Rangers defensive faults (the reason they are faced with this predicament for the tie) along with a hefty list of absentees.

Add this to the fact that Maribor should have the same team that played in Slovenia and the teams look far more even than the prices suggest. Rangers will have to force the issue tonight which means gaps at the back for Maribor to exploit and while the 6’s is tempting the price of 5/2 to win a half is too big to ignore given that both teams will be likely to come out fighting.

Advice

2 pts Tottenham to win to Nil (10/11 general)

2 pts MK Maribor to win either half (5/2 Coral)

Carling Cup Bets - Wednesday 24th August 2011

Hopefully you’ve been following us this week as we’ve gotten off to a fast start, and a poor Ebor meeting should be behind us. Sadly QPR (who I did not foresee blanking) and Zagreb let us down but the other three selections were easy money and with the likes of Norwich falling by the wayside at home a profit (1 pt more than staked) is good going, although the coupon in both Europe and here is harder.

Everton suffered a loss on home turf at the hands of QPR last weekend but were unlucky to do so in all reality and will see a home tie against Sheffield United as a cracking opportunity to get a win on the board.

In all honesty, Everton should have won that game - Cahill had a free header two yards out after Jermaine Beckford's cross which he put over the bar when it would have been easier to score, along with Leighton Baines hitting the bar with a trademark free-kick – And while critics will point out that they offered little more in attack then that but Sheffield United should present a much easier task for the likes of Beckford, so Everton -1 is worth a poke at 5/4 on that basis.

Bolton also appeal as a team that should be able to give a a beating to lower League opposition in League 2 Macclesfield, who have struggled to find consistency so far in their campaign – Admittedly their goalless draw against Bristol Rovers was an entertaining affair but even Bolton reserves will be harder to beat at home and a win looks in order.

Some would find appeal backing Bolton on the handicap but shocks like their 2-1 loss to Northampton, couple of seasons ago  damped the enthusiasm and maybe Bolton/Bolton is a better bet, as it has come through twice in the last three seasons for Bolton’s first League Cup game.

Elsewhere Blackburn don’t make much appeal at 4/7 given their injury woes of late, although Sheffield Wednesday won’t be making much of an effort too and could have gone out to Blackpool in the last round but for a couple of chances – Both teams to score is priced more than fairly given that neither side has kept a clean sheet in the six times they have met in the League Cup and both sides have scored in Blackburn’s opener for the last three years.

Exeter v Liverpool is the headline tie for the TV cameras and many of the Liverpool young guns or fringe players will be given a run out. That’s likely to put off those punting at 2/5 (who does anyway) although a double result for the travellers is evens, which will have its takers tonight but it’s worth looking at just how well Exeter did against Preston away - City manager Paul Tisdale says the 1-0 defeat at Preston North End was 'one of the best away performances' his side has ever played – and the game is left from this point of view.

Advice

1 pt Everton -1 (5/4 Paddy Power)

1 pt Bolton/Bolton double result (5/6 SkyBet) 

Champions League Qualifers - 24th August 2011

The Champions League qualifiers seem sorted for many teams and many factors, such as the margin of Victory, manager pressure or team news will be crucial, with some teams far clear from their first leg. The mood at Lyon has improved greatly since new coach Remi Garde took over with a decent start to French Ligue 1 which has brought approval from fans in a more attacking formation.

Lyon won their opening league game 3-1 at Nice before a two 1-1 draws, including at home to Ajaccio. That doesn’t sound like the greatest start but it leaves them above title rivals Marseille, Lille and Paris Saint-Germain in the early standings and leaders Montpellier have only 9 points.

The Champions League qualifiers seem sorted for many teams and many factors, such as the margin of Victory, manager pressure or team news will be crucial, with some teams far clear from their first leg. The mood at Lyon has improved greatly since new coach Remi Garde took over with a decent start to French Ligue 1 which has brought approval from fans in a more attacking formation.

Lyon won their opening league game 3-1 at Nice before a two 1-1 draws, including at home to Ajaccio. That doesn’t sound like the greatest start but it leaves them above title rivals Marseille, Lille and Paris Saint-Germain in the early standings and leaders Montpellier have only 9 points.

This was more evident than ever when they came from behind to beat Rubin 3-1 at the Stade Gerland when creating plenty of chances and dominating the ball (57%) and having 5 shots on goal, with 10 on target, while Rubin had 13 overall.  They will have to go for it tonight and that should allow many gaps to open up on the break for the 7 time French Champions.

Their attacking talent - Michel Bastos, Jimmy Briand Lisandr and Bafétimbi Gomis – should be able to crave out opportunities even in Russia, where Kazan have failed to win 6 out of 10 home games and lie fifth in the table, admittedly behind 4 very good teams.

That said Lyon are clearly the more progressive side and assuming they stay focused -   Lyon have conceded the first goal in all four matches this season – They can win and are value at 15/8 to do so with this quote from Bafétimbi Gomis summing things up; “We have an advantage but we're not through yet because anything can happen in the Champions League”.

In the other night’s games, there’s a slight doubt about whether Benfica should be 1-2 to beat Twente despite their obvious quality and home advantage, though the stats speak for a lot.

Benfica have recorded 13 victories from their last 15 European home games, posting five in succession since their only home loss in that sequence − 2-1 against FC Schalke 04 last year, while Twente have won just one of their last five European away matches. The 5/6 about both teams to score does look tempting based on both team’s high scoring exploits of late.

Advice

1 pt Lyon (19/10 Stan James) 

Champions League Qualifers - 23rd August 2011

2 legged European ties offer a fascinating proposition as punters weigh up recent form and then put in home/away advantage to the equation. Traditionally home advantage is a key factor in this competition, especially given how tight the matches are, but sometimes you see clear gaps in superiority that wouldn't necessarily be turned around for a differing factor.

Dinamo Zagreb have now won all 6 home matches this season after smashing Malmo out of sight last week and on that basis are worth a bet to repeat the dose again with the tie seemingly well and truly over.

Having romped to the title by 17 points last season, losing just twice in 30 matches, Dinamo have hit the ground running this time around too 5 wins in as many matches seeing Krunoslav Jurcic’s side open up a cushion at the summit already and Malmo’s one solitary goal was only the third they’ve conceded in this tournament.

Malmo have won since and there’s a danger that the tie is a dead rubber but given the abundant and between the teams I’m happy to chance 75 on a team that’s supposedly 3 goals better than their opponents, despite being away from home.

Over in Zurich, Bayern Munich should enjoy yet another stroll if their first leg was anything to go by, where only the profligacy of Mario Gomez prevented more goals for the hosts, who are beginning to find their stride in the Bundesliga after an opening day loss to Munchengladbach, proving most impressive when thrashing a relatively poor/raw Hamburg side as Robben, Ribery and Gomez ran riot all day.

I would not put anyone off the odds – on lying around but the 13/10 still available for a Half Time/Full Time result is probably worth taking – Bayern have won four of their last 5 away against harder opposition and the double result has come on two occasions.

The German champions certainly appeal more at 8/13 than Villarreal at 1-4 against BK Odense. The Spanish side lost due to a mixture of match fitness (the Danes are already six matches into their domestic season while La Liga is yet to start) and complacency and while the tables should turned, 1/4 is no value and neither is backing them with a -1 h’cap at 8/13. While my advice is for no bet, OB do get a generous price for +1 & +2 and that may be worth a wager If you too don’t like the Spanish side’s chance, as you know that they’ll go all out to defend that lead.

In the other ties, APOEL might get the better of Wisla on home turf but the price isn’t generous given that the Poles were probably deserved winners and odds – against is a bit on the short side. Genk could also get the better of Maccabi Haifa but 16/5 is a big price for the Israelis against the 10/11 offered for the hosts, who can win but might be better value in running.

Advice

1 pt Dinamo Zagreb (7/5 general)

1 pt Bayern/Bayern (13/10 VC Bet) 

Carling Cup Bets - Tuesday 23rd August

The Carling Cup is much maligned by all but the addition of Premier League team opens up the coupon and gives a fair few betting opportunities, even if it’s not a completion to put your house on.

Looking at last year’s results made for some really interesting reading – Only Blackpool, who treat the competition with disdain even by Premiership standards – went out in the first round from the top tier, and an outstanding amount of top sides let in goals, which is a big hint to those looking at both teams to score across the coupon, with some really strong Championship sides presenting a stern test.

Wolves were one of a few Premiership teams to struggle when needing a scrambled a winner in the last minute of extra time to get past Southend but there’s a better feel about the side this year round following on from wins against Blackburn and then Fulham in the Premier League and circumstances mean that a decent team is likely to be named.

The likes of Dorus De Vries, Jody Craddock, George Elokobi, Kevin Foley, Nenad Milijas, Adam Hammill, Michael Kightly and Sylvan Ebanks-Blake are set to get a run-out against the League Two side and as was shown when they went and took on Manchester United reserves in the competition last season in a fashion some would even call harsh given how they’d fought back in the second half before Javier Hernandez came off the bench to score a last-minute winner.

League to Northampton are nursing a few knocks following the weekend defeat to Cheltenham, with Ashley Westwood and John Johnson amongst those players who are doubts which could make this a reserves v reserves game and at that 4/5 I’d only want to be with the Premiership Side, while taking notice of the scope for a shock.

West Brom are likely to ring the changes for the clash with Bournemouth, with the likes of Graham Dorrans and Marek Cech likely to be given a run-out, but that didn’t stop them beating Leyton Orient before going on to enjoy their best League Cup run in 7 years and at evens they look well worth a poke to beat struggling Bournemouth, who have lost their last in the League and gave up 70% possession to Carlisle when losing 2-1 last time out.

The home side also have a few injury troubles with strikers Steve Lovell and Royal Doble being doubtful at least, while Joe Partingon sidelined too. West Brom overall seem like an improved outfit and are well worth chancing at evens to go through to the next round.

QPR were also of interest at 8/13 to follow up a confidence boosting win against Everton and beat Rochdale having scored at least two goals in four of their last six League Cup matches at home (courtesy of Opta) but a gap of 2 divisions was not enough to stop Port Vale putting three past them at Loftus road last season. Much more appealing is the 10/11 being offered that both sides score, which happens in the majority of League Cup games nowadays.

Advice

1 pt Wolves (4/5 Paddy Power)

1 pt West Brom (10/11 general)

1 pt Both teams to score in QPR v Rochdale (17/20 VCBet) 

Manchester United v Tottenham - Premiership

The phrase “over to you” has been well used after Manchester City gave an attacking performance when winning 3-2 at Bolton yesterday and bolstering their title prospects but there’s good reason to think that neighbours United can show them who’s boss again on Monday night against Tottenham.

Spurs were impressive when making a winning start to the campaign at Hearts, romping home 5-0 at Tynecastle, but this is a huge step up in class from the SPL’s third best team, who were in no form at the time.

It will be important that Spurs once again bring their A-Game as the likes of Anderson and Tom Cleverly will prove harder to pass in midfield than what Hearts had to offer, while the absence of Luke Modric (Spurs boss Harry Redknapp revealed the midfielder's head 'is not right' at the moment following Chelsea's summer-long pursuit of the Croatian) leaves a hole in Tottenham’s midfield.

Tom Huddlestone is no bad player to have in the middle of the park but it’s understandable that they would want Modric to control the ball and give Spurs a stranglehold. There’s no doubt in the attacking ability of Spurs, with Van Der Vaart, Bale and Lennon able to trouble any defence, should pose a threat but United have equal ability in Nani, Young, Rooney and even Wellbeck on form.

United’s experienced centre-halves Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic are absent through injury but replacements Chris Smalling & Phil Jones have long been ready to step into the back form and will have been putting in countless hours on the training ground, while Patrice Evra again offers a constant threat.

Some feel that David De Gea had an inauspicious start to his United career after making mistakes against West Brom and Manchester City but all he needs is time and he’s another one who will have worked tirelessly to improve on those shortcomings and it’s not hard to foresee improvement coming and fast.

This makes United the clear pick but alongside that I’ll go with the double united result, seeing as it occurred in 17 out of 18 home games last season, which isn’t surprising given the 33 first half goals scored by the Red Devils last year.

Advice

3 pts Manchester United (8/13 general)

2 pts United-United double result (6/4 SkyBet)

Bolton v Manchester City - Premiership

Few would have imagined that this would be a top of the table clash or indeed that both teams would win their opening games 4-0 but that is indeed the case which precedes Bolton v Manchester City at the Reebok.

The endless war chest that is in stock at Eastlands was evident when Kun Augero was brought  in from Athletico Madrid and it already seemed like the move had reaped it’s rewards when the Argentine, put on a dazzling array of pace, power and skill to score two goals and set up another in City's 4-0 drubbing of Swansea on Monday night.

The new boys did hold of Manchester City for more than half the game but they were always second best and their rear-guard, which kept a clean sheet 18 times last season was always more than ready for whatever the Swans could throw. Not much admittedly, but it’s always a strong point when asking teams to go to places like Bolton, who have a strong home record.

The stark reality for Mancini’s men is that this is the kind of game that they have to win if they want to be going for the title, but their away record (28 points, which was second only to Arsenal last year) suggests that this kind of trip holds no fears for them.

Bolton were deserved winners against QPR but there’s a feeling that Neil Warnock’s team were well below form despite having created chances until Gary Cahill’s wonder goal right on the stroke of half time. A similarly good performance is expected although more might be needed to trouble City.

City have no real injury concerns and can attack the game at full-strength, while Bolton are without several regulars, with broken-leg victims Tyrone Mears and Lee Chung-Yong out for some time and there’s definitely a feeling that they would prefer to have USA International Stuart Holden with the side, although he too is out for a long period (knee).

Bolton's home form last season was impressive, with only four defeats and a good top team record - over Arsenal, Spurs and Everton plus a draw against Manchester United but City were the last team to win an away game here and may repeat the dose again on Sunday.

Advice

2 pts Manchester City (5/6 Betfred, Boylesports, Hills)

Premiership - Sunday 21st August

Stoke City won just three games on the road( also haven't won away from home in the Premier League since last Boxing Day) last season but there’s good reasoning to think that they have a big chance of ending that record at Norwich on Sunday, whether they win or not.

Courtesy of Sky Sports, you can learn that Stoke have failed to score in seven of their last nine away games, and their last three Premier League games in a row while picking up just two points from a possible 30 in their last 10 top flight games away from the Britannia Stadium, but circumstances are very much different this time round.

The Potters are progressing well in the Europa League and have had no problems with travelling to sides like Hadjuk and Thun (whose plastic pitch makes things very difficult) and held Chelsea to a 0-0 draw at the Britannia Stadium last weekend with a gritty performance, suggesting that Pulis’s side are at the peak of their powers.

Jonathan Woodgate, Jermaine Pennant and Asmir Begovic are likely to start after being rested for the Europa League game against FC Thun, all of whom bolster Stoke massively, while Jonathan Walters is also in the line-up despite picking up two notable knocks in Switzerland.

Paul Lambert's side secured promotion out of the Championship last season on the back of an impressive home record and made a good start with a draw against Wigan (following on from a fairly unlucky penalty) and should be fired up for their home debut but they will find it much harder to create chances against this Stoke side and a tight game maybe on the cards.

Those who like to follow trends will be interested to see that were five of Stoke's seven Premier League stalemates last term were 1-1, along with Norwich’s last four, which does make the 23/4 about that score with Bwin tempting, but this might be a bit more a slow burner than even that so the half time draw is the shout.

Two teams that I am also fond of in Wolves and Fulham may also find each – other tough nuggets to creak. Wolves started the season perfectly with a hard fought but well deserved 2-1 win against Blackburn which will have eased a lot of fears that any fans had for the news season. Their ever realistic manager has kept a lid on expectations but surely they will be on a high and it’s hard not to see them putting up a bold show.

Fulham weren’t the best travellers last season – A tally of only 3 wins does not read well – But they had many draws and 9 away draws on the road shows just how prolific they were when under pressure and it’s likely that the same situation will arise at Molineux on Sunday.

Fulham were unlucky not to beat Aston Villa but for Shay Given’s double saves infront of goal, but a determined Wolves side who are clearly going to be in a good mood should offer stiff resistance. Quotes on both sides are fair but not as tempting as the 23/10 for the draw.

Advice – Norwich v Stoke

1 pt HT Draw (11/10 Unibet)

Advice – Wolves v Fulham

1 pt Draw (23/10 Stan James)

Futurity Stakes 2011

4.25 Curragh

Galileo European Breeders Fund Futurity Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1)  (2YO only)

Winner €57,150 

Advice: 1 pt win David Livingston (5/2 Boylesports) 

Astrology: Relatively unfancied on debut but came with a late rattle to landing decent maiden at Leopardstown in style of a colt that had more to give; Not so sure if step back in trip will suit him but deserves respect here.

Cheerful Giver: Still yet to break his maiden and outclassed last time; Probably here to ensure a decent gallop.

David Livingston: Outpaced on debut but that in decent maiden at Leopardstown and much more like it when he bolted up in good time considering ground conditions over C&D latest; Looked like a group winner on that occasion and should go well.

Dragon Pulse: Just got beaten by reopposing Vault (winner since) on debut and plenty of promise when winning at Leopardstown next time out; Likely to give it a good go and could be thereabouts 

although doubt about whether he reverses form with Vault.

Parish Hall: Made a deep impression when only of only two horses good enough to catch subsequent Group winner Requinto (subsequent winner Raphel Santi behind) on debut at Leopardstown; Creditable second back there in Tryos Stakes but well beaten in Phenoix and may be vulnerable.

 

Rivera Poet: found only Group winners too good in Power (Coventry Stakes winner) and Remember When (Tryos Stakes winner) on debut and made up tremendous ground to come and beat subsequent wide margin winner at Galway; Can take a big hand.

Straight Of Zanibar: Made a pleasing debut when fading on late into third at Naas, and followed up promising run in Tryos Stakes with listed win of his own; Form has taken a real battering since though, and others preferred.

Vault: Eighth foal; half-brother to 7f winner Top Class; Looked useful prospect when beating Dragon Pulse in maiden here on debut and made amends for Group disappointment when winning competitive Nursery at Galway under topweight (had decent draw) and while he’s not exposed, will need to up his game.

VERDICT: DAVID LIVINGSTON looked well upto this class when running out a clear cut winner of a decent maiden last time and might be the answer to a tricky puzzle. Rivera Poet and Parish Hall and Astrology are the dangers. 

Lonsdale Cup 2011 - York Ebor Meeting 2011 (Day 4)

3.05 York

Weatherbys Insurance Lonsdale Cup (British Champions' Series) (Group 2) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner £79,394

Advice: 1 pt win Duncan (5/1 general) 

Blue Bajan: Ran as well as he has ever done when second in 1m6f Yorkshire Cup in second run back from over a year off and travelled like a dream when landing Henry II Stakes at Sandown; No shame in Gold Cup defeat and weighted to reverse form with Blue Bajan.

Dandino: Took major handicap double at this meeting and Royal before close Group 3 third in Gordon Stakes (form worked out); Flop in St Ledger but noteworthy run in Japan Cup, coming only eight lengths behind top class opposition; Impressive return followed up by courageous win in Jockey Club Stakes on first two starts this year, and only real failure has come when seventh in German Group 1 last time; 2 miles is a it of a blind spot but one of the best horses in the race.

Duncan: Quirky horse; best ever season last year, with a Hardwicke second added to with a win in the Foy on trials day; Not up to it in the Arc but boasts some of the best form claims and underlined those with win under penalty (battled well) in Yorkshire Cup to begin the season; Sixth in Yorkshire Cup but clearly didn’t handle 2m4f and big chance down in trip, hopefully with the caveat of settling better.

Opinion Poll: Made steady progress last season when winning Group 2 event and threatened to take a Group 1 last season, with creditable efforts in top staying races; Fourth in Longchamp Group 2 more than satisfactory effort and career best when second in Gold Cup last time out, suffering a slightly trouble passage; Followed that up with perfectly times challenge to win Goodwood Cup and should go close, although he’s badly in with Blue Bajan now.

Allied Powers: Winner of 2 Group events last year (Grand Prix & Prix H’edouville) before creditable, although not particularly notable, Group 1 runs; Steady improvement in performance this season before poor showing in Newmarket Listed race and while he was back to form last time out, others make more appeal.

 

Bergo: Has fair bit of class and stamina in abundance, as he showed when winning the Queen Alexandra Stakes at this meeting last year and good runs in UAE and Goodwood Cup show that he retains that talent but this likely to be too quick for him all over again.

Chiberta King: Seemingly lost his way a little bit but back in form the last thrice, when fourth in fiercely contested long – distance handicap before winning easily; Made to work hard for Listed success last time out at Sandown and may owe that in part to a very strong finis; Seemed held in Goodwood Cup and some may be stronger.

Harris Tweed: Progressive front runner thoughought 2010, winning big Musselbrugh handicap with plenty to spare before taking two listed races; Hard at it from long way out in Ormonde at Chester May meeting and Hardwicke second even better; Should make a bold bid having gone down to thoroughly progressive types the last twice.

Elyaadi: Good second in Queen Alexandra Stakes but always held in a dour grind, and looked outpaced when well beaten at Dundalk; Might want further than this nowadays.

Highland Castle: Showed promise when third and then first in pair of good maidens and better performance when managing to make up late headway (had dropped himself out) in Haydock handicap; Looked as if step up in trip would suit but this probably a much harder task.

VERDICT: Opinion Poll makes a lot for appeal based on his Goodwood Cup win but the margin between him and Blue Bajan is too tight to call and DUNCAN, dropped back to a trip which should suit, may be able to beat him if settling. Dandino also makes appeal. 

York Ebor Festival 2011 (Day 3) Supporting Races

When looking at the York Ebor, the first thing I noticed was that 9 of the last ten winners had been drawn in the top 7 stalls, which is understandable if you look at how the runners tend to drift over towards the near side.

That gives us a shortlist of Mystery Star (17), Mount Athos (18), Halicarnassus (19), Tactician (20), Lost In The Moment (21) and Saptapadi (22). The claims of the favourite are obvious but there’s no denying that he’d have won the Goodwood Cup with a clear run and that form entitles him to be the price he is, and he’s worth having in the portfolio as a back – up even if he’s not your first choice as his progression may not have stopped yet and already proven in Group company, he can go well.

The other from that list I would be selecting is Blissful Moment, who has come second in two good handicaps that have worked out well, not least when going down only to Fox Hunt, who has since proven himself in Group company (just behind Lost In The Moment) at Ascot over 12 furlongs two starts ago.

With just seven career starts to his name he fits the bill as a progressive type and has probably been put away for the race given that he’s not run since Royal Ascot, which has also given him a workable handicap mark of 98.

Of the others, Modun is a progressive horse but this trip is a big unknown and only two winners hadn’t already won over 12 furlongs in a handicap. Admittedly he’s all but won at 12 furlongs and I’m a big fan of his but he doesn’t hold the extremely strong group form that some here hold and a draw of 2 could have been kinder.

Saptapadi also holds strong claims but those are well known and he’s not one I could advise against or for strongly, with his form last time out having been boosted twice since in big style, and I prefer his claims to those of Tactician, who might well get taken on for the lead following is win in a C&D handicap.

The one of the bigger priced fancied I would be with was Cill Rialaig, who show down a handicap good thing In Imposing at Royal Ascot last year and has only run twice since, notably when not getting a clear run and going down only to Sea Of Heartbreak and Mirror Lake, two pattern class performers, with progressive 3yo Polygon behind. 20/1’s a bit of an insult and she should go more than well, and if the price of the two recommended picks, she’s the one I would go for.

The weights for the Melrose Stakes are dominated by the O’Brien pair but both have questions to answer. Admiral Of The Red was beaten by two older horses but neither was anything special in the Curragh Cup when he looked one paced and off 102 (a mark which is higher than even that of his maiden win) he should struggle here.

The same stable’s Apache went from looking like a vastly improved horse having broken his maiden with ease to then looking very awkward in the King George V Handicap and he can’t be trusted until showing some improved form after that – If he pulls like he did then he won’t stay this trip and there has to be a doubt about how good he actually is.

This leads me to Communicator, who was staying on having been miles out of his ground in the King George Handicap at Royal Ascot in soft ground. The second and winner have since proven to be Group class and over a longer trip and better ground it’s hard not to see him going well. Another good mention goes to Masaraat, who comes from the jockey/trainer combo who have won two recent renewals of this race.

Advice

0.5 pt each/way Lost In The Moment, 3.40 York (8/1 Hills)

0.5 pt each/way Blissful Moment, 3.40 York (11/1 Ladbrokes)

0.5 pt each/way Communicator, 2.30 York (11/1 Hills)

Nunthorpe Stakes 2011 - York Ebor Festival 2011 (Day 3)

3.40 York

Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (British Champions' Series) (Group 1) (Class 1)  (2YO plus)

Winner £156,066

Advice: 0.5 pt each/way Requinto (8/1 Coral)

Bated Breath: Unbeaten in first three and excuses when beaten on first tires in Group company last year; First run was write off & very impressive in winning last two races, both strong enough contests; New career best on ground that wouldn’t have suited when fifth in the Golden Jubilee and better still when second in July Cup, but drop back to 5 furlongs asks a question of him.

Captain Dunne: Has never been in better form and win in uber – competitive Epsom Dash as good as any here in field, especially given topweight; Should go well here at decent price.

Hamish McGonagall: Formerly useful/high-class handicapper who made jump into conditions/pattern company last season with useful efforts here; Shaped as well as ever on first could of starts but well held in 6f Group 2 & Temple; Has tried to make all and only just failed on last two starts and unlikely same approach will reward him here.

Hoof It: Has proven hugely progressive this year and put up one of the handicap performances of all time at Goodwood according to ratings when picking up the lead well over a furlong from home and running way with Stewards Cup under 10 stone; Should make a bold bid here, drop back in trip no problem.

Inxile: 6 years old but evergreen as a sprinter and enjoying best season yet, winning listed races at Tipperary, Naas and Cork (twice) to add to his Prix Du Gros Chene win and Group 2 third; Can make another bold bid but this might be too good for him.

Kingsgate Native: Top class when at peak form, a prime example Temple Stakes win last year (also past winner of Nunthorpe for past yard); Didn’t match up to form for the rest of the year but still fourth in the July and Betfred Sprint Cup; Beginning to look regressive and more solid options.

Masamah: Impressive when blitzing opposition at York and probably in wrong place when eighth in Dash next time, as showed when once again coming late and hard to win Listed event; Explosive pace when never in danger of losing Goodwood Group 2 (weak race) and should go well.

Prohibit: Has continued progression throughout winter in Dubai, taking valuable event by a head before respectable fifth in high class Al Quoz sprint; strong at the finish on all starts this season, mainly when landing King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot; Race could pan out in same fashion so has to be rated a big contender.

Tiddliwinks: Back to something like his best when winning minor event at Nottingham, having resumed the progress he made in 2 Graded events in Ireland; This demands yet more.

Breathless Kiss: Has failed to improve on, or repeat his quite impressive Beverley win in four starts since in pattern company; Hard to imagine him suddenly winning now.

Invincible Ash: Beneficiary of a very good ride when winning Group 3 at the Curragh in June; Third to Inxile at Tipperary last time leaves her with a lot to do in this field.

Piccadilly Filly: Once a very sharp sprinter, and a very good third in this race last year at 100/1; That had come after promising efforts however, and this time round she seems well out of form.

Swiss Diva: Nothing short of brilliant last season, steadily progressing in recording a hat – trick of, all on soft ground, highlight when trashing rivals in Prix Petit Couvert; Unplaced on last two starts but circumstances against her on both occasions and worth a second look with the ground calmer for her here.

Margot Did: Shaped like a very useful horse as a 2yo, winning first two before strong of creditable efforts in top class company; Unlucky on first two starts this year (common theme) but found success when making all in Listed events; Shouldn’t discount after doing best of those with bad draw in Coral Charge. 

Wizz Kid: Speedy as a juvenile and improved for drop back to 5f o win Prix du Gros-Chene (by a head from Prohibit) at Chantilly; Shouldn’t be as big as she is based on that form and of interest.

Requinto: Has impressed with raw speed on all but one start (when held up over 6f) and unbeaten at the minimum trip, overcoming flat spot in mid race to win Molecomb at Goodwood going away; Supplemented for this and could go very close here.

VERDICT: Much of the attention is centred around Stewards Cup winner Hoof It, who will have no trouble dropping back in trip here. His price is just a little short in this type of race and it may be worth siding with REQUNITO, who is unbeaten at 5 furlongs and overcame a flat spot in great style at Glorious Goodwood. Pick of the bigger prices in order are Captain Dunne, Wizz Kid, Margot Did and Swiss Diva.