Champions League Semi Finals - Chelsea v Atletico Madrid

It has become a guarantee of late that whatever the result for Chelsea in their semi final tonight, Jose Mournhio will be at the centre of proceedings and his Chelsea side can reach yet another European final by edging out Atletico Madrid at Stamford Bridge tonight.

Much has been said of Chelsea’s conservative gameplan – “parking the bus” as everybody now calls it – but on the biggest stages it has worked the oracle for a Chelsea this season. Against the other members of the top four as it stands currently, they have 16 points from their 6 games – with home wins against each of those sides – and while the first leg last week was soporific his preference for coming here with a clean sheet is totally understandable.

Until their defeat to Sunderland Jose had not lost at home in the league in 76 games and their record in Europe at the Bridge is almost as impressive; Chelsea have never lost a semi-final leg in any European competition at home and have won their last five Champions League knockout matches at Stamford Bridge, keeping a clean sheet in the last three of these. A 3-1 defeat at PSG, much like the one they suffered against Napoli two years ago before turning around the advantage, came at the hands of criminal defending by their lofty standards and given the quality of Atletico there was good reason to have the game decided upon home turf where Chelsea are undoubtedly strongest.

It’s with good reason given that Atletico are a side that boast exactly the same qualities as Chelsea. The Rojiblancos have actually conceded less goals than Chelsea in the league and Champions League while they also have three more clean sheets in La Liga than their hosts tonight. Being at home is not going to deliver Chelsea automatic victory, either; Madrid have taken 4 points in league meetings with Real Madrid including a victory at the Bernabeu and in 6 meetings with Barcelona this season they are yet to be beaten – and against La Liga’s top 6 they have won all their away games so far.

This already has the shape of a game that could go all the way to extra time and penalties, but Chelsea had no problem with a more aggressive approach against PSG when the French club sat back to play on the break and they should have had the game wrapped up before Demba Ba’s 87^th minute winner. Breaking down Atletico – and keeping them as quiet as they did in Spain last week when they go forward in search of their opener – will be a different matter, but at home, with more options than anyone thought they would have – John Terry has recovered to partner Gary Cahill in defence and the pair will be ably protected by their midfielders and wingbacks  -  they have the quality to edge Atletico with home advantage and give Jose yet another night to remember.

Advice

1 pt Chelsea (6/4 general)

1 pt Chelsea 1-0 (6/1 general)

 

Already Advised

2 pts each/way Juventus (20/1 Hills, 18/1 general)

1 pt each/way PSG (16/1 general)

1 pt each/way Borussia Dortmund (20/1 general)

1 pt each/way Atleico Madrid (40/1 Coral) 

Punchestown Festival 2014 - Best of the rest of day 2

While yesterday at Punchestown may not have been the best from a betting point of view for us – on that point, thank you very much Real Madrid – the loses were incomparable with the wonderful sight of seeing Sizing Europe bound away for a truly special Champion Chase win was one of the highlights of the sporting year and the kind of magic that many will say can only be offered by the National Hunt game. For me, the beauty of the sport is that we can have today’s fantastic flat card at Ascot alongside today’s racing at Punchestown, but the betting chances are over the Irish Sea for me.

Cheltenian, seen leading, getting chinned on his return from 700 days off.
He holds a big chance in the conditions hurdle at Punchestown

Phillip Hobbs’ has had a truly rich spring festival season, with Balthazar King’s second cross country win on the bounce followed up by a Grand National second, while Fingal Bay was also bought back to his best to land the Pertemps final. Since Aintree he has also had 5 wins in the last fortnight, and his Cheltenian, a past Champion Bumper winner, has a fine chance in the Louis Fitzgerald Hotel Hurdle (4.20). Off for over 700 days after winning at Cheltenham, he landed his first maiden hurdle in December and then ran a wonderful race in the Betfair Hurdle when fourth; Obviously fancied for the County Hurdle, he was a massive disappointment when all around from his stable were running out of their skins but an inability to settle cost him badly there. His latest Aintree run, when fourth in a strong handicap hurdle, sets a high standard and he is capable of giving Hobbs yet more success at a meeting he is fond of targeting.

In a strong race, Le Vent D’Antan is respected, while it’s tempting to give Carraig Mor another chance after the health issues at Alan King’s yard stopped his potential earlier in the season, and Nicky Henderson’s Medieval Charter is interesting dropped back from 3 miles and given some better ground; The former is a tempting each/way option while the latter needs serious respect for a yard that bought Cool McCavity to win following disappointment yesterday in a competitive handicap hurdle.

Speaking of connections that won yesterday, Henry De Bromhead and Andre Lynch, fresh from their Champion Chase success yesterday, have a fine chance of landing another big prize with Auphcarlie in the Guinness Handicap Chase. A promsing novice chaser for Willie Mullins, his jumping let him down when in the running for two novice chases at the backend of last season but it’s worth remembering how close he finished to Back In Focus at Leopardstown over Christmas and his reappearance win was a promising one. Once rated 153, it’s likely that he can be at least as good as 148 and he is worth chancing in a fiercely competitive race.

Advice

1 pt win Cheltenian, 3,40 Punchestown (11/4 general)

1 pt each/way Carraig Mor, 3.40 Punchestown (7/1 Ladbrokes)

1 pt each/way Aupcharlie, 7.40 Punchestown (8/1 general)

Punchestown 2014 - Irish Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle 2014

4.55 Punchestown

Irish Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner €55,800

Advice: 1 pt win Don Poli (3/1 Stan James)  

Apache Jack: Came forward from maiden hurdle win to land similar contest with ease next time and then, in receipt of 7lbs, close up with Briar Hill until the line in Slaney Novice (ahead of Very Wood, also here today); Had that form reversed when third to Very Wood in Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham having travelled up with the very best, and should go well again here although hard to see him reversing form.

Beat That: Beaten favourite here last year over bumpers but now a different horse, having shown giant potential when slamming useful Champagne West on hurdles debut at Ascot and bouncing back from Sandown defeat to take apart opposition upped to 3 miles at Aintree latest; No doubting that this is far tougher but most impressive there and arguably the one to beat.

Captainofthefleet: Been consistent since landing maiden hurdle at Limerick back in December but 25 lengths behind Don Poli when the two last met and won’t be reversing that form this time around.

Lots of Memories: Been pitching in and around graded company and handsome handicap win was just rewards for good efforts, although looked quickly exposed following his wide margin Grade 3 at Cork in November; Respected here and capable of good showing for all that this a different level.

Shanahan’s Turn: Pitched in at the deep end following a solid maiden hurdle win where step up in trip and experience saw him win well at Leopardstown, but  never settled and was well beaten in the Neptune at Cheltenham; No doubting that he has ability, but fail to see him having requite stamina for such a test if he doesn’t race more quietly.

Thunder and Roses: Fell at the seventh off topweight in race Lots of Memories won so well at Fairyhouse 10 days ago and had been useful beforehand, second over C&D in February to Jetson looking even better than it did at the time; Likely he can provide a good showing although this again a different level for him.

Don Poli: Found 2m4f too short on Irish debut but unbeaten since, building greatly on promise shown when landing Thurles maiden hurdle when grinding out Grade 3 win from smart chaser Goooneyella; Wasn’t thought of with the Festival in mind but took his chance, and coped with drop in trip and switch to fastest ground he’s faced so far with aplomb to run out a very ready winner of Conditionals Handicap Hurdle, outstaying closest rival from the last off mark of 143; Should go well.

Draycott Place: Hard to have him as a contender given the fact that he’s been beaten double figures on each of his graded starts.

Very Wood: Looked as if he’d become disappointing, having shaped well in decent at Navan before disappointing in Royal Bond and then being beaten for stamina by Briar Hill (Apache Jack second, giving 3lbs), but transformed for step upto 3 miles when travelling and lasting home best to win Albert Bartlett in comprehensive style; Should go very well here.

VERDICT: A fiercely contested, high quality event with three of the most promising staying novice hurdlers in training taking eachother on. Both Beat That and Very Wood will take some catching but the way DON POLI coped with a drop back in trip at Cheltenham suggests that he could be a serious staying prospect and he gets the vote.

Punchestown 2014 - Punchestown Gold Cup

5.30 Punchestown

Bibby Financial Services Ireland Punchestown Gold Cup (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner €120,000 - 9 run

Advice: 1 pt win On His Own (4/1 general)

Argocat: Experienced now in these big events but still only 6 and career best effort in Aintree Bowl when ahead of disappointing First Lieutenant; That form (which is backed up by Grade 2 win beforehand) gives him a realistic chance here.

Boston Bob: Had become disappointing following novice chase campaign of huge promise despite jumping issues last year but stamina that didn’t come into play as hoped in Ryanair saw him power away to land Melling Chase at Aintree, much the best from the last to the line; Jumping seems to have been sorted out based on that pair of runs and returned to three miles, an obvious chance here.

First Lieutenant: As good as any on his day but this season possibly a disappointment now, having had no answer to Last Instalment or flashing Tidal Bay in Irish Hennessy and then laboured fourth at Aintree latest; First time blinkers may be the oracle today and known to reach peak with racing, although he has something to prove now.

Folidubh: Has been a grand servant but 6tih in Lexus as good as he is over a staying distance and limp efforts the last twice not much of a encouragement.

Long Run: Second in this last year would give him best form chance but since not run up to the same form and jumping issues still a problem based on falls in King George and Grand National this year; This still not beyond him but all this season’s efforts suggests he will struggle.

Lyreen Legend: Fantastic novice campaign last year before disappointing here; Top level has been just beyond him in three major staying chases, well there in the Gold Cup but fading in the finish as he has done on three other occasions

Medermit: Looked very much as if staying races should be on domain but not won since 2011 and long time off following fourth in Aintree Bowl; Not shown much of old spark in two runs this season and hard to envisage going well.

Noble Prince: Won Listed chase at Thurles in good style in November and good effort at Cork latest but that a different level based on what he’s going to need here.

On His Own: Tried and failed twice at Grand National but quickly proven he’s a far better horse than showed there and after winning Thyestes Chase again, put classy Mount Benulben aside in Bobbyjo Chase, earning a Cheltenham Gold Cup tilt that may well have ended in glory if he’d been able to stay straight in last 100 yards; Still a fine run and likely to take the beating today.

VERDICT: There have been some recent shocks in this race and using that trail of thought, Argocat deserves some respect after a solid effort at Aintree, but ON HIS OWN had been shaping as a graded horse even before his fantastic Gold Cup effort and he is preferred over stablemate Boston Bob in what’s a tight call. Doubts over Lyreen Legend’s stamina make him hard to recommend and the blinkers may be the oracle for First Lieutenant, although he was very disappointing at Aintree.