The 6 Nations has an ever changing nature from week to week
and we may have been very quick to forget the chances of Ireland following
their defeat at home to England and the injuries that followed, and they can
keep championship hopes alive with a victory against Scotland at Murrayfield
today.
Declan Kidney’s side were joint favourites before their crunch
clash with England, but a whole host of handling errors – thanks in no small
part to a horrendously wet day in Dublin - held back their cause in a 6-12
defeat, which also saw them lose 5 key players to injury or suspension; And
those absentees form no small part of the spine of the Ireland side.
Simon Zebo’s broken foot rules him out of the rest of the
tournament, with experienced and steady hand Gordon D’Arcy ruled out for
largely the same reason, while pre-tournament Lions favourite Jonathan Sexton
(hamstring) and second rower Mike McCarthy (knee) will miss at least today’s
match; Prop Cian Healy’s disgusting and reckless indiscretions were well
deserving of a longer ban than the three weeks he is suspended for but his absence
from the scrums and he breakdowns will be no less damaging, even if deserved.
Despite what some might say, that’s not the end of the world
for the Irish, as damaging as those absences will be. O’Gara struggled badly
once put on against England – missing a sitter as soon as Jaames Haskell was in
the bin – and was no better against the Scarlets last week, missing three out
of 5 penalties in a toothless performance which has shown his marked decline over
the past two or three seasons.
To say that this is a baptism of fire for Ulster’s Paddy
Jackson would be an understatement but anyone who has seen him play for Ulster
will know that he’s been a future Ireland 10 for quite some time and his exploits
with Ulster will have given him plenty of experience at the best of club level –
the only thing comparable towards test rugby without being the real thing. Many
will point towards his below par performance in last year’s Heineken Cup final
but Ruardih Jackson hasn’t reached that level with Glasgow Warriors at club
level and Ulster were clearly second best to Leinster on the day, leaving
Jackson with a pack that was going backwards from minute 1 to 80; Many have
also credited much of his growth at Ulster with Ruan Piennar’s presence in the
No.9 shirt, but Conor Murray’s had his best season in the No.9 shirt for
Munster and should be on a decent wavelength with his halfback partner.
Luke Marshall also has a huge responsibility on his first
start in the 12 jersey but he’s shown much of the same progress that his
clubmate Jackson has, while the rest of the replacements are more than capable
of filling the gap left by the absences. For all that Ireland were disappointing
against England, that same side is now 4/7 for the Grand Slam, and just a week
earlier they were tearing Wales apart at the Millennium Stadium before holding
off a fightback despite having two men in the bin during the second half – they
still won by 8 points in the end.
Scotland were truly dire in the Autumn but are really reaping
the benefit of Tim Visser’s inclusion in the side following his residency and
the coaching change from Andy Robinson to Scott Johnson has worked wonders on
the evidence of their first two performances, especially their34-10 thrashing
of Italy. The fact they they’ve scored 6 tries at this stage of the
championship already is a revelation and a real sign of progress, and you couldn’t
help but be impressed by their power and pace from broken play against the
Italians, but they might have been overrated in the context of their following their
win against a desperately poor France – who were much improved with players in
the right positions yesterday at Twiceknham – and there’s no way that the Irish
will allow anywhere near as much time and space for the Scots, who thrive on
broken play from end to end – their two tries at Twickenham came from line
breaks, and two of their four tries against Italy came deliberately from
opposing errors, including Start Hogg’s spectacular burst. The hosts will
provide a tremendous challenge for the Irish, who will have to be on their guard
and far sharper than they were against England, but the victors looks to have
more than enough class to come through this tests and have lost one in their
last 12 matches against the Scots in the 6 Nations, so looks good value to win
by 1-12 points, as they’ve done in their last 3 tournament games here.
Advice
5 pts Ireland to win by 1-12 points (8/5 Boylesports, Paddy
Power)
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