Premiership - Manchester City v Liverpool

Manchester City’s 0-0 draw against QPR but a big dent in their title hopes once again but they can beat Liverpool to keep themselves within distance of their rivals and leaders across the city. Roberto Mancini’s men were blanked at Loftus Road earlier this week but that was a game that they dominated from start to finish and would have won by a wide margin had it not been for the exceptional form of Julio Cesar in goal – 15 shots and 7 on target confirms that – and in any case City have been far more impressive at home rather than on the road this year. At the Etihad, from 12 games they have 9 wins, 2 draws and one defeat – that coming to Manchester United in a game which flip – flopped from the first moment to the last. Compare that to a record away from home of 6 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats and you see why they’re so far behind in the title race.

In any case, Liverpool are hardly the best travellers. They’re still yet to win a game against a side above them at the time of playing, let alone on the road,  where they’ve let in even more goals than QPR – a whopping 20 so far already – and they have just 3 wins against sides on the road this season; West Ham, QPR and Norwich. Two of those three sides were in the bottom three when they played and all of them are vastly inferior to City, who hold a 15 point gap over today’s visitors.

Liverpool are capable of taking the game to the best of teams and have performance better than their results would suggest, but they are far too reliant on Luis Suarez even with the arrival of Daniel Sturridge really improving their range of options. Some people have suggested that the absence of Vincent Kompany due to injury might also give Liverpool some extra hope, but they’ve won their last three home games to nil and 5 of their last 6, while they’ll be able to call upon Matija Nastastic to partner Joelon Lescott instead of pushing Javi Garcia back towards defence. With one of the strongest midfields in England, there’s also the worry of how much ball Liverpool will be able to get in the exchanged in the middle of the park and should City get a hold of the game then it’s easy to see Liverpool being shorn of possession and as such chances. Rodgers’s men took a 2-0 lead at Arsenal but defending even more comical than the errors that gave them the lead saw them concede two in three minutes and that was a game that, while being entraining, highlighted the large weaknesses of both sides in defence. City are a far more dangerous proposition going forward, dominate in midfield and also possess far more attacking quality directly upfront than any side Liverpool have played this season barring Manchester United, so look well worth backing to gain just their third win over Liverpool in some 27 fixtures – the two recent wins were easy 3-0 successes here in the league.

Advice

2.5 pts Manchester City (10/11 Bet365)