India v Australia - Series Preview

England made history when becoming the first side to win a test series in India since 2003/04 and Australia may be able to repeat the feat and bring a marked point towards the improvement that they’ve made since their Ashes defeat at the hands of the Three Lions. For two sides who have produced such great games on a consistent basis throughout the last decade, the build up towards this series has been strangely muted, especially considering this is one of Australia’s last major tests before their Ashes double header against England later this year, and this is the first test series for India since that defeat to England.

And the circumstances between the two are remarkably similar. India come here a team very much in transition, although their move from old to new has been anything comfortable. Of the side that lost the third test against England, seven were present for their last test match against Australia, and much of the same side here has been present since the mid 2000’s. Australia won that series 2-0 with relative ease, but things have changed since.

India have failed to win 6 of the 12 tests played following that 2-0 series win, with 6 of their wins during that period coming against West Indies and New Zealand, both sides who were ranked 9^th and 10^th in the World at the time, and even then they twice failed to cross the line against New Zealand twice and West Indies once, albeit with the series won at the time.  The statistics say that Since England's 1-1 draw in 2005/6, only South Africa (twice) and England have avoided defeat here or even managed to win a Test, while they’ve won 10, drawn four, and lost just one of the 15 series that have taken place within that time, but recent form puts a rather different spin on things and following that 2-1 series defeat to England, it’s very surprising to see them installed as just 4/6 for the series win less than 3 months after.

Many might say that this is an inferior Australia side compared to England but Michael Clarke’s (see above left) side have come on leaps and bounds since their Ashes defeat towards England, winning 12 of their 19 tests since including a 1-0 victory over Sri Lanka in their first series since that defeat. There’s admittedly a slight worry that this is the first time the Australians have actually played on the sub continent since that series, but they pushed South Africa as close as they’ve possibly been towards a series defeat just this January – a series they were very unlucky to lose – and it’s important to remember that they were just as convincing winners over India at home in identical fashion to England (4-0). In the run up towards that series many had dismissed the visitors chances due to a supposed inability to deal with sub – continental conditions and the reversal in conditions, yet England ran out very convincing winners after a heavy first test defeat and it’s surprising to see Australia bigger to simply avoid defeat than India are to win the series. The 11/10 with Hills on Australia coming out of India unscathed looks to be easily the best bet of the series, while 4/1 on the hosts to take the spoils and the 8/1 on them winning 2-1 are also worth adding to the portfolio if history and statistics are to be believed.

As far as the player betting is concerned, Australia’s chances will rely upon Nathan Lyon if many are to be believed, and with England’s series winning challenge having been spearheaded by Graeme Swann and Monty Panesar – the pair took 30 wickets between them in the series win and much of England’s success came at the hands of Panesar’s addition into the squad after the first test – and with Lyon being the only established spinner in the side, he looks value at 7/2 to spearhead the winning challenge.

For India, Pragyan Ojha has been the most successful spinner since his inclusion into the side and looks to be a must bet for top bowler. Boasting a quite remarkable 95 wickets in just 25 tests, Ojha took 6 more wickets than main rival Ravichandran Ashwin over the course of the England series and with Harbajan Singh presumably past the peak of his powers, he looks to have the leading role if the home side are to succeed. The same too can be said of Chestwar Pujara (left), who came second only to Alistair Cook in the runscoring stakes in the England series – he was 100 runs clear of Kevin Pietersen – and should be less threatened by Nathan Lyon and others rather than the spin duo of Swann and Panesar, who restricted him to just 56 in the 4 innings after his second century.

Advice – Outright betting

5 pts Australia/Draw double chance (11/10 Hills)

2 pts Australia (4/1 Paddy Power, Stan James)

1 pt 2-1 Australia (8/1 Stan James, Bet365)

Advice – Player betting

1 pt Nathan Lyon top Australia bowler (7/2 general)

1 pt Praygan Ojha top India bowler (2/1 Boylesports)

1 pt Cheteshwar Pujara top India batsman (7/2 general)

Advice – Specials betting

1 pt India to win 1^st test and lose series (25/1 Bet365)