France’s championship hopes died when they lost 22-21 to
Italy at the Stadio Olimpico but they can kickstart their title charge with
victory against the ever improving Azzuri today. Last year was an appalling
campaign for the visitors, who had actually looked rather good when beating
Italy and Scotland in their first two games – the problem being that those two
nations were a level below the rest, occupying fifth place and the Wooden spoon
respectively. A record of 0 wins against England, Ireland and Wales sums up
their championship; Unable to get going when the best got moving, and with
trips to Twickenham and Dublin this year that’ll have to change and fast but
there’s reason to believe that things could be very different for Les Bleus
this time around.
Most of France’s problems last season centred around a dire
lack of creativity at fly half and an alarming amount of ball lost in contact
and at the breakdown, yes they still came within drop goal attempts of beating
Ireland and England, albeit with wins that would have been miraculous given the
balance of the game. However the revival of Frederik Michalak’s carrier at
Toulon and his emergence into flyhalf seems to have totally revived the joy de
vivre that France are so often famed for. Having scored 77 points in his four
games, since coming back into the 10 Jersey, France have scored 113 points with
him at the helm in just 4 games – more than they managed during the whole of
last year’s competition. While also being a far superior positional kicker to
the misfiring Lionel Beauxis, Michalak’s running game has bought life to
France’s attack, with the new centre pairing of Maxime Mermoz and Florian
Fritz, who offer creativity and strength in equal measure. This means that
outstanding talent Wesley Fofana is moved towards the wing, but he has scored
there once already – against Australia in that dominant performance and is well
equipped for the job based on his pure pace and power – expect to see him
coming in off the wing plenty of times.
Choosing between Machenaud and Parra is a choice that would make many
other nations green with envy
The second improved asset is France’s backrow. Last year an
astonishing 88 turnovers were conceded last year but the new improved 6-7-8
axis of Dustatoir, Ouedraogo and Picamoles should stop that in an instant while
providing more quick ball for the backline to attack; If they’re in the same
form that they were against Australia and especially Samoa, then some nations
could be in for a damn tough time at the breakdown this year. With Saint Andre
also having a record of improving teams the longer he works with them – his
Sale side were a different promising after a season under him – and the
selection and balance of the team being much improved upon last year, it’s no
surprise to see his side as many people’s favourites for the title this year.
Italy are hot wooden spoon favourites with their match
against Scotland – who looked much improved for times during yesterday’s loss
against England – but that doesn’t reflect how far they’ve come since the
tournament was expanded for them and the days of heavy beatings for them on
home soil are are long gone. England only
came away with a win last last year thanks to a charge-down try and the
Wallabies needed a late penalty miss from the hosts as well as a butchered try
early on to sneak away with success. Infact only Australia and New Zealand have
actually won by double figures here in the last two years, so to expect a wide
margin French win could be unwise – the 1-12 and 6-10 winning margins appeal
most in the outright market. So would the option for the home side reciving 6.5
points on the half time handicap – at halftime France were only leading once
last year, and that was Against Italy at home. Italy, on the other hand, led England
by 6 points, tied with Scotland and trailed a full strength New Zealand by 6
points at the break; Evan against Wales they were only behind by some 6 points,
so that would obviously make some appeal on stats.
Those who are keen to get behind France should strongly
consider the 10/11 offered by Bet365 upon them scoring 25 or more points – a mark
they have failed to cover only once in games v Italy since 2000, coming in
their defeat here in 2011; They are a stronger side now.
Advice
3 pts France to score 25 or more points (10/11 Blue Sq)
1 pt France to win by 1-12 points (13/8 general)
1 pt France to win by 6-10 points (11/2 general)
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