Barcelona are heavy favourites for the Champions League and deservedly
so but the majority of the Spanish magic has come at home and it might be worth
backing last 16 opponents AC Milan to stay in the tie until the reverse leg
tonight with a handicap start. Milan looked to be heading out of Europe for the
foreseeable future at the beginning of the season, where the double move of Thiago
Silva and Zatlan Ibrahimovic to PSG coupled with the departure of several legendary
names – Alessandro Nesta, Gattuso, Clarence Seedorf and Pippo Inzaghi – to name
just a few unsettled the behind the scenes atmosphere, leading to some truly dire
performances early on, although things have changed since and the club has
settled remarkably well through the winter.
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| Milan will hope that El Sharawwy can make it for tonight |
In the last 5 seasons Barcelona have reached 3 semi-finals
and gone onto win the competition twice, and in their Last 16 away tie they
have won just twice – one of those being against Celtic all the way back in
2007/08, while Bayer Leverkusen were soundly beaten 3-1 but were easily the
weakest challenge they’d faced on paper in the last 16 since their famed run of
success in the completion started in 2006. Elsewhere, they’ve been held 1-1 by
Lyon, 1-1 by Stuttgart, and beaten 2-1 by Arsenal (where they also got pulled back
to a 2-2 draw in their quarter final before winning 4-1 at home). Barcelona won
all those second legs easily but the main point is that at European level, the
only vulnerability they’ve shown in the knockout stages has been on the road,
regardless of the supposed quality of the opposition.
It’s well documented that Milan – who are on a seven-game
unbeaten run in Serie A and have won their last six matches at San Siro in all
competitions - aren’t the team that won this title so impressively just a few
years ago – or even a patch on the side that won Serie A just a couple of
seasons back, but their recovery from their worst season start in recent
history has been impressive. Since being bottom half in mid-November, they’ve
won nine, drawn two, and lost just 1 of their last 12 Serie A matches to rise
upto a miraculous looking third; In an imaginary Serie A table from the last
week of October, Milan would be top, 4 points clear of Juventus in second.
Some could argue Barcelona are on a different level and some
of the football they’ve played this season has been as good as any they’ve produced
during the last few years – no mean feat – and one that’s backed up on their astonishing
La Liga starts. Unbeaten until their 3-2 defeat at Real Sociedad (January 19th)
Barcelona have scored 80 goals in just 24 league matches – that’s 3.3 goals on
average every game – and won 88% of their matches, leaving them 12 points clear
of Atletico, and a whopping 16 clear of Real in third. Should they turn up in
that sort of form then there’s no hope for Milan on paper but they’ve not kept
a clean sheet in their last seven games away from home and will be facing a
Milan side who have plenty of experience - even if unsuccessful – of playing
Barcelona before. In the eight meetings between the two since 2004/05, on only
one occasion have Barcelona won by more than a single goal – and that was at
the Nou Camp – so backing the home side with a 2 goal handicap start seems to
be the best way to get onside, although with 3 of the last 5 meetings between
the two having ended up in a draw, that outcome could be the best value in the
match odds.
Advice
3 pts AC Milan +2 (4/7 Bet Victor, 8/13 general)
1 pt Draw (3/1 general)
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