Rarely will title deciders come in the second week of competition
but today’s clash between Ireland and England has a the feel of a clash that
could decide the 6 Nations title and the men in green can knock back Lancaster’s new revolution by
taking the championship lead with victory at the Aviva Stadium today.
Following their impressive win against Scotland, England
come here as even money favourites for the title from the 2/1 they were ante
post and while they were visually very impressive on the opening weekend,
Ireland will be at a different level compared to the Scots in every aspect of
the game. In 2011, where England won the Championship but had their Grand Slam
hopes taken away from them at the last moment, having just previously beaten
Scotland at home, Ireland’s overwhelming intensity in the first half saw them
take a 17-3 lead they would never come close to relinquishing, thus destroying
England’s Grand Slam hopes in the
process.
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| Brian O'Driscoll has an excellent record against England and this might be his last game against the Red Rose |
This is a far superior and much changed England side to the
one that travelled to Ireland two years ago, as evidenced by the fact that just
four of those who started in the England ranks that day will be present at kick
off today; England are also a much harder team these days thanks to their bruising
tour of South Africa, even while playing far more attractive rugby. Not much
has changed about Ireland barring the lack of absolute consistency - you have
to go back to rounds 3 and 4 of 2010 for consecutive wins from the men in green
in the championship – but much of the team has never been in better form and
the real challenge for England today will be imposing themselves upon one of
the best forward packs in Europe and providing the quick ball that the team
thrive off. When so impressive against New Zealand England were ferocious at
the breakdown, led in chief by the much undervalued Chris Robshaw, and stopped
the New Zealanders in their tracks at times thanks to slowing the speed at
which Aaron Curden was able to operate; Cast your mind back just a couple of
weeks earlier however, and Michael Hooper was turning precious opportunities
into eminent frustration for the then hosts, while the only reason South Africa
have not tasted defeat against England since 2006 was the continually slow ball
given to Toby Flood and then Owen Farell at Twickeham.
With Cian Healy, Sean O’Brien, Donnacha Ryan and Brian O’Driscoll
just four of the names who can slow and then steal ball, the job of the England
pack today is a huge one; Get quick ball to the backs who have scored 38 points
in their last two matches. Both sides’ backlines are star studded and possess
more than enough raw pace and/or skill to open up defence, but England’s chef
issue since 2003 – the last time they won here in the 6 Nations – has been slow
ball when going forward and the same against Ireland’s line speed and the famed
choke tackle will lead to a long a frustrating afternoon. The scrum has been
seen as a key area but if Mike Ross can keep fit for the 80 it should be no
more than a 50-50 battle – it was his absence that contributed towards the
scrum dominance of England which bought 27 of their 30 points – while most
areas between the two look equal. Bookmakers are unable to separate the two
sides, which is understandable, but Ireland’s superb home record in general and
against England in particular swing the vote towards a battle hardened home
team who have the defensive capitalises to stop England and the backline talent
to put them away. For those looking to squeeze extra value out of the game, a
win by more than 12 points for either side would be a large shock given how
evenly matched they both seem, despite the large winning margins posted in
recent years; Those looking at the special markets are directed towards results
which have Ireland infront at half time - England have trailed at the interval
in four of their last six matches under Stuart Lancaster while Ireland have
been in command at the break in nine of their last ten test matches – while the
Brian O’Driscoll wincast at 11/2 makes appeal given how he has three in seven against
England, all of them wins – the advice here is to keep it simple however and go
for a narrow home success.
Advice
3 pts Ireland (evs Paddy Power)
1 pt Ireland to win by 1-12 points (13/8 general)
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