Wednesday, 20 February 2013

Champions League Last 16 2013 - Galatasaray - Schalke


What happened? Cast your mind back to the start of November, and Schalke had beaten Olympiakos and Arsenal away, topped their Champions League group in the process, were the only team remotely on the level of Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, while they had also strolled towards the third round of the German Cup. All looked well with one of Europe’s most progressive sides. Indeed, when the draw was made for the last 16 which pitched them against eachother, Galatasaray were as big at 9/4 and seen as the ready outsiders of the two sides to go through, but that was before the massive slump which has seen the hosts win just one of their last 12 games and drop to ninth in the Bundesliga. 

Since then, Galatasaray have moved with ominous ease towards the top of their league – they’re 6 points ahead of Fenerbache in the Super Lig - and made a couple of very eye-catching additions to the squad in the January transfer window in the shape of Wesley Snedijer and Didiger Drogba, both winners of this completion in recent times, and as such, they are the strong favourites to take a first leg lead towards Germany with Stan James’s 5/4 being the best price available on a home win. On the face of it, that looks very tempting with the visitors woes compounded by several key absences -  including Kyriakos Papadopoulos, Atsuto Uchida, Ibrahim Afellay and Ciprian Marica – while the 2-0 group stage win over Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium was the visitors’ last away victory in all competitions, having gone onto lose five and draw three of their subsequent eight games on the road; Compared to just two defeats in 14 matches for the hosts, with three consecutive games in this competition. The only worry that one would have is that Galatasaray did most of their hard yards in the group stages on the road – their 1-0 win came against a Manchester United side that as through to the last 16 already – while Schalke are unbeaten away from home in Europe this season – but the addition in quality that Snedijer and Drogba – who have already played significant parts in a 2-1 win over Akhisar Belediye – provide should help a side already facing a defence that has let in 20 goals in their last 8 matches alone. It would be utterly foolish to forget Burak Yilmaz, who scored six out of the team's seven goals in the group stage and present a huge threat to any side, while Hamit Altintop and Selcuk Inan should secure plenty of good home ball.

Klaas Jan-Huntellaar’s appearance after a an eye injury is a bonus and the capture of Michel Bastos from Lyon is a masterstroke- he’s already saved them from defeat once in scoring 2 goals at Mainz on Saturday, so there is still some attacking threat, but the squad’s overall quality is disseminated by injuries and the defence has been letting in goals against anyone, so the home side get the call here; The 27/10 on Galatasaray being eliminated in the quarter finals is attractive considering Schalke woes and the quality awaiting them in the last 16.

With Galatasaray having not kept a clean sheet in the Champions League and only 6 at home – including none against Bursaspor and Besiktas, the best the Turkish league has to offer – goals look to be in the offing here. The value’s gone out of both teams to score – so the 5/6 on over 2.5 goals looks to be the batter option of the two, while the 2-1 Galatasaray correct option has landed in three home league games, where 70% of Galatasaray matches have had three or more goals this season. Ladbrokes’s 7/2 on a Galatasaray win without a clean sheet should be of interest, while the 6/5 with Bwin on the second half having most goals looks to be solid considering that 13 of the 17 goals scored by Galatasaray and Schalke combined in the group stages came in the second-half, while Shackle have scored and conceded over 60% of their goals after the break.

Advice

2 pts Galatasaray (5/4 Stan James)

1 pt 2-1 Galatasaray (19/2 Bet Victor)

2 pts Second half highest scoring (6/5 Bwin)

Ante Post

2 pts Galatasaray to be eliminated in quarter finals (27/10 188Bet) 

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