What happened? Cast your mind back to the start of November,
and Schalke had beaten Olympiakos and Arsenal away, topped their Champions
League group in the process, were the only team remotely on the level of
Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, while they had also strolled towards the third
round of the German Cup. All looked well with one of Europe’s most progressive
sides. Indeed, when the draw was made for the last 16 which pitched them
against eachother, Galatasaray were as big at 9/4 and seen as the ready
outsiders of the two sides to go through, but that was before the massive slump
which has seen the hosts win just one of their last 12 games and drop to ninth
in the Bundesliga.
Since then, Galatasaray have moved with ominous ease towards
the top of their league – they’re 6 points ahead of Fenerbache in the Super Lig
- and made a couple of very eye-catching additions to the squad in the January
transfer window in the shape of Wesley Snedijer and Didiger Drogba, both
winners of this completion in recent times, and as such, they are the strong
favourites to take a first leg lead towards Germany with Stan James’s 5/4 being
the best price available on a home win. On the face of it, that looks very tempting
with the visitors woes compounded by several key absences - including Kyriakos Papadopoulos, Atsuto
Uchida, Ibrahim Afellay and Ciprian Marica – while the 2-0 group stage win over
Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium was the visitors’ last away victory in all
competitions, having gone onto lose five and draw three of their subsequent
eight games on the road; Compared to just two defeats in 14 matches for the
hosts, with three consecutive games in this competition. The only worry that
one would have is that Galatasaray did most of their hard yards in the group
stages on the road – their 1-0 win came against a Manchester United side that
as through to the last 16 already – while Schalke are unbeaten away from home
in Europe this season – but the addition in quality that Snedijer and Drogba –
who have already played significant parts in a 2-1 win over Akhisar Belediye –
provide should help a side already facing a defence that has let in 20 goals in
their last 8 matches alone. It would be utterly foolish to forget Burak Yilmaz,
who scored six out of the team's seven goals in the group stage and present a
huge threat to any side, while Hamit Altintop and Selcuk Inan should secure
plenty of good home ball.
Klaas Jan-Huntellaar’s appearance after a an eye injury is a
bonus and the capture of Michel Bastos from Lyon is a masterstroke- he’s already
saved them from defeat once in scoring 2 goals at Mainz on Saturday, so there
is still some attacking threat, but the squad’s overall quality is disseminated
by injuries and the defence has been letting in goals against anyone, so the
home side get the call here; The 27/10 on Galatasaray being eliminated in the quarter
finals is attractive considering Schalke woes and the quality awaiting them in
the last 16.
With Galatasaray having not kept a clean sheet in the Champions
League and only 6 at home – including none against Bursaspor and Besiktas, the
best the Turkish league has to offer – goals look to be in the offing here. The
value’s gone out of both teams to score – so the 5/6 on over 2.5 goals looks to
be the batter option of the two, while the 2-1 Galatasaray correct option has
landed in three home league games, where 70% of Galatasaray matches have had
three or more goals this season. Ladbrokes’s 7/2 on a Galatasaray win without a
clean sheet should be of interest, while the 6/5 with Bwin on the second half
having most goals looks to be solid considering that 13 of the 17 goals scored
by Galatasaray and Schalke combined in the group stages came in the
second-half, while Shackle have scored and conceded over 60% of their goals
after the break.
Advice
2 pts Galatasaray (5/4 Stan James)
1 pt 2-1 Galatasaray (19/2 Bet Victor)
2 pts Second half highest scoring (6/5 Bwin)
Ante Post
2 pts Galatasaray to be eliminated in quarter finals (27/10
188Bet)
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