Saturday 2 February 2013

6 Nations 2013 - England v Scotland


England can start to go down the long road to proving that their romp to victory against World Champions New Zealand was no fluke by beating Scotland in today’s Calcutta Cup clash and kickstarting their 6 Nations campaign with a crucial first weekend win. Stuart Lancaster’s side came into last year’s fixture with a whole new lineup following a desperate World Cup in New Zealand but approach this fixture a completely different side, favourites for the tournament following a gradual year of what has turned into rapid improvement. Turning the mind back to this fixture a year ago, Wooden Spoon holders Scotland dismantled England time and time again only to find the final pass had let them down; As taken from our team preview (credit to the Guardian itself for that) - seven line-breaks to none; 238 passes completed compared to 72; 62 tackles made compared to 142; 123 rucks and mauls won compared to 51; 33 attacks in the opposition 22 compared to eight; and more than 35 minutes in possession compared to 24 – Charlie Hodgson’s try let them down in the end England then went onto second place, while Scotland limped to a winless campaign.

Since the last tournament, England have gone onto regularly throw it down to the world’s best and beat them as they showed in December, while Scotland have failed to match that performance in any of their subsequent tests barring scoring three tries against New Zealand; It is extremely hard to envisage anything but a home win.


The line that England are asked to cover is generally 15 points (14 in a place), which does tempt given the gulf in results between the two of late, but the last four Calcutta Cup clashes have be settled by no more than seven points; A seven-point winning margin in 2012, four points in it when they met at the World Cup, six points dividing the sides in the 2011 Six Nations and a 15-15 draw in the game before that. If England can play to the level which saw them destroy New Zealand than those margins will be smashed but they owed all three tries to Manu Tuilagi – absent today thanks to an ankle injury incurred two weeks ago – and they were facing a New Zealand side suffering from flu and well below their best, so it may be foolish to assume a performance of the same quality. The selection of Kelly Brown, David Denton and Richie Gray at the breakdown to help slow the England ball which was so fast against the All Blacks could also play a big part in how many opportunities England get for quick ball, and with that in mind this might be a tighter game than expected. Against Wales and Ireland last year they lost by 14 and 18 points respectively so the handicap looks too tight to call, and a better suggestion might be the 1-12 winning margin for the home side.


Advice

1 pt England to win by 1-12 points (15/8 Blue Sq)

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