England can start to go down the long road to proving that
their romp to victory against World Champions New Zealand was no fluke by
beating Scotland in today’s Calcutta Cup clash and kickstarting their 6 Nations
campaign with a crucial first weekend win. Stuart Lancaster’s side came into
last year’s fixture with a whole new lineup following a desperate World Cup in
New Zealand but approach this fixture a completely different side, favourites
for the tournament following a gradual year of what has turned into rapid
improvement. Turning the mind back to this fixture a year ago, Wooden Spoon
holders Scotland dismantled England time and time again only to find the final
pass had let them down; As taken from our team preview (credit to the Guardian
itself for that) - seven line-breaks to none; 238 passes completed compared to
72; 62 tackles made compared to 142; 123 rucks and mauls won compared to 51; 33
attacks in the opposition 22 compared to eight; and more than 35 minutes in
possession compared to 24 – Charlie Hodgson’s try let them down in the end
England then went onto second place, while Scotland limped to a winless
campaign.
Since the last tournament, England have gone onto regularly
throw it down to the world’s best and beat them as they showed in December,
while Scotland have failed to match that performance in any of their subsequent
tests barring scoring three tries against New Zealand; It is extremely hard to
envisage anything but a home win.
The line that England are asked to cover is generally 15
points (14 in a place), which does tempt given the gulf in results between the
two of late, but the last four Calcutta Cup clashes have be settled by no more
than seven points; A seven-point winning margin in 2012, four points in it when
they met at the World Cup, six points dividing the sides in the 2011 Six
Nations and a 15-15 draw in the game before that. If England can play to the
level which saw them destroy New Zealand than those margins will be smashed but
they owed all three tries to Manu Tuilagi – absent today thanks to an ankle
injury incurred two weeks ago – and they were facing a New Zealand side
suffering from flu and well below their best, so it may be foolish to assume a
performance of the same quality. The selection of Kelly Brown, David Denton and
Richie Gray at the breakdown to help slow the England ball which was so fast
against the All Blacks could also play a big part in how many opportunities
England get for quick ball, and with that in mind this might be a tighter game
than expected. Against Wales and Ireland last year they lost by 14 and 18
points respectively so the handicap looks too tight to call, and a better
suggestion might be the 1-12 winning margin for the home side.
Advice
1 pt England to win by 1-12 points (15/8 Blue Sq)
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