Absurd as it might have sounded to some after 40 minutes against Ireland, Wales think they can still
win the 6 Nations Championship and might just have come to Rome at the right
time to take their second win of this year’s championship and in doing so, put
them right back into the title race. Grand Slam winners last year, then then
Warren Gatland side preceded – much like in years past – to go on a long winless
run following their Triumph.
The very length of their barren spell is evidence by the
fact their last two wins at test level have come against France – their 16-9
Grand Slam success last year and their hardfought 16-6 win at the Stade De
France just two weeks ago, although it could have been that the length of their
winless spell has let us forget the quality they possess a little too easily.
Of their eight losses, 4 were against Australia and their defeats in the summer
on Aussie soil came by a combined total of just 13 points, all in games which
could easily have gone the way of the visitors with a bit of luck – best not
mention the tragic injury time defeat for Wales which ended their miserly
autumn while we’re at it. While defeats against Argentina and Samoa were pretty
disappointing affairs, it is well worth noting that their pack at the time, was
totally decimated by injury – three of the grand slam pack were injured for their series opener – by the end of the
series, no more than 10 of their team were on the sidelines.
While they were appalling during parts of their 22-30 defeat
to Ireland, - they did at one point, give the Irish a 27 point lead, including
a 3-23 deficit at half time – the stirring second half comeback they launched
was a reminder of what their backline can do when given the chance and while
the 16-6 win over the French was a last gasp moment of genius in what had been
a dire game, getting back on the winning trail was all that would have
mattered.
Italy themselves have progressed year on year through the
tournament and showed particularly with their win over France on the first
weekend, that they are no longer the forward bully merchants that they used to
be with some slick and sophisticated forward moves in a deserved win. Sadly
they weren’t half the team against Scotland last weekend, but they’ve always
struggled on the road badly and should present a stiff challenge, although
captain and talisman Sergio Parisse being out is a massive blow to their
chances. This is sure to tempt some into a handicap of 8 points, but it’s important to note the improvement
they’ve made over the years at home. England needed a charge down to win there
last year, while Australia needed a botched try and missed penalty to sneak
with success, while France have lost on their last two fixtures. Wales have winning
margins of 6 pts, 5 pts, 30 pts and 10 pts in 4 of their last 6 visits (they
lost the other two games by 3pts and 8pts), so the 1-12 winning margin seems
the right way to go.
Advice
2.5 pts Wales to win by 1-12 points (7/5 Bet365)
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