6 Nations 2013 - Outright Preview

With just one year to go towards a European World Cup and a Lions Tour coming up in the summer, it’s fair to say that this is a very important edition of the 6 Nations with every single side and player having it all to play for, with Stuart Lancaster’s England taken to cement their progress and bolster their World Cup claims with victory for just the second time since 2003. Going back a year, Lancaster was on trial and this was an all-new England side coming out of a disastrous World Cup with no less than 7 debuts, seemingly destined for failure with 2 wins being judged as an acceptable total by many before the tournament has started. Much has changed since, with the Red Rose tournament favourite with most pundits and the betting market despite some very strong looking opposition on paper following a year of what has generally been huge amounts of progress. Last year bought 4 wins out of 5, with only Wales proving too strong by two scores, France being bested at the Stade De France for the first time since 2008, and Ireland being thoroughly destroyed at the end of the Championship, and while the Autum Internationals weren’t overly successful upon a results basis, the progress made was clear for all to see, culminating in a stunning defeat of New Zealand. It’s very true that result can easily be overplayed, but also it can’t be denied that was by far the best result of any Northern Hemisphere nation in the Autumn and it showed a new side to England that hasn’t been seen for a few years beforehand –it should also be remembered that England were very unlucky not to beat Australia or South Africa beforehand in their two games.  With a squad which now has far more experience and depth than last season – with several promising projects launching themselves into the reckoning and first team – Lancaster’s side are worthy favourites despite a schedule that gives them demanding trips to Ireland and Wales. It’s worth nothing that they won their three away games last season – including France – while their record at home in the 6 Nations since 2005 reads 9 wins and 3 defeats – a deadly stat for tournament second favourites France, who have lost 5 of their last 6 against the Red Rose. Philippe Saint Andre’s side were the disappointments of the tournament last season but have good reason to hope for a title push this time after some significant personnel changes in some key areas.  The only unbeaten side through the Autumn, they produced one of the most impressive performances of the year when destroying Australia and Argentina in their first two games, while they found impressive mental strength to stop the same Samoa side that had rolled over Wales no less than two weeks previously in their tracks in impressive style. With Federik Michalak seemingly solving the fly half problem which has caused them so much strife for a year and a half, they’ve looked rejuvenated and carefree almost in attack since the end of the Summer tour and represent a very different side to the one that won just twice last year so were obviously going to attract support. However their fixture list last year couldn’t have possibly been kinder to them and visits to England and France could be their downfall, while they’ve suffered some key injuries as a result of brutal Top 14 encounters which have been played alarmingly close to the beginning of the tournament. Saint Andre has a week less prerpation time than the other home unions and has already lost both promising full-back Brice Dulin and leading try-scorer Vincent Clerc to injury before the tournament even started – hardly ideal with three away games in the course of the championship.

This could well open the door to Ireland, who have struggled since their Grand Slam of 2009  - barring the 2011 World Cup - but have a near perfect fixture list for their tastes this time around and the return of most of their first choice XV.A big thumping of Argentina at the backend of the Autumn Internationals prevented their World Cup pool from being a complete disaster while restoring some crucial confidence while having England and France at home is a stark change to the daunting trips they had to take towards Twickenham and Paris last year. With some emerging new talent coming in the backline to help the record breaking centre partnership of Brian O’Drscoll and Gordon D’arcy, plus the return to form of many key forward figureheads, there’s significant potential for this Ireland side to make a major championship tilt if they can overturn a poor recent record against Wales on Saturday; The England – Ireland straight and reverse forecasts therefore make a lot of appeal, while it’s not hard to see them landing something like the Triple Crown or even the Grand Slam; however can take the win from Croke Park could well have championship advantage. In the build-up to this championship it is stupid to forget the qualities of Wales, but once again they’ve failed to make progress from their Grand Slam winning year and circumstances are very different this time around.’ Trips to Italy and Scotland alongside home visits of England and Wales seems like the perfect fixture list, but they’ve lost their last eight games and are not the same side mentally which is very often the key for Wales - as last year. True, they weren’t the heavy favourites that France were for the title last year but they had come into the tournament off some storming displays in the World Cup and were using the same side that had reached fourth place in New Zealand, all the time under the guidance of Warren Gatland. Interim coach Rob Howley has had nowhere near the same amount of success to date, while they have failed to go on from their Grand Slam success on three occasions; Wales won a Grand Slam in 2005 and then won just once in the following 9 6 Nations Matches, while that was the case again in 2008 when they and went on a run of 6 defeats in 9 matches since. Having lost 8 of their last 9, it will be interesting to see if they can arrest the slide against Ireland; Fail to do so and they are staring down the barrel. On the postive side, their backline is still retained and they do get Ireland and England at home, but there’s a feeling that the chasing pack have caught up and the margins were never that tight last year. Scotland aren’t as bad as the results would make them seem and possess a classy, pacy, backline at their best, but they’ve scored just 25 tries in their last 20 6 Nations games and are a long way from competition for anything but the Wooden Spoon with Italy; Indeed the Azzuri, who get better every single year, could give them their biggest test yet at Murrayfield in what is not a done deal. Jacuqes Brunel’s side have a monster pack as always and are getting far better defensively, but struggle in the backline – notably with the 9-10 axis and goalkicking which leaves them and still defensively inferior to the big guns, although the margins between them and the rest is closing rapidly.

Advice

4 pts England (2/1 Stan James)

1 pt England – Ireland (8/1 general)

1 pt Ireland – England (10/1 general)

1 pt Ireland to win Triple Crown (7/2 general)