Friday 22 February 2013

6 Nations 2013 - England v France


Cast your mind back towards the beginning of this year’s 6 Nations tournament, or better still, the end of the November Internationals. Stuart Lancaster’s England had just destroyed World Cup winners New Zealand, while Phlippe Saint Andre’s France side had just completed a 100% Autmnun Series with relative ease against a Physical Samoa side after thrashing Australia and Argentina inbetween. At the time the two were joint favourites for this year’s 6 Nations, and many had earmarked this fixture as the potential title decider between the two. Things have changed in the interim.

Whisper it quietly and don’t tell Stuart Lancaster, but England come here no bigger than evens for the Grand Slam having won their two games, while France are strongly facing the prospect of a wooden spoon following two defeats, the first time they’ve done so in a 5/6 Nations season since 1982, both in performances totally devoid of the strength or flair they bough towards the Autumn Internationals, making England – who have lost at home just twice in the 6 Nations since 2010 – the heaviest of favourites for a clash which was seen as a Grand Slam decider just a few months ago. Wales’s improvement since the beginning of this championship means that nothing will be decided here at Twickenham today, but pass this test and England have just Italy and Wales between them and a first Grand Slam since 2003.

And if the first two weeks are anything to go by, then only one team will be winning this game. England’s 38-18 win over Scotland could easily have been more comfortable and was an impressive marker of intent, although their first win in Ireland since 2003 was a masterclass of game management, breakdown skill, and composure in downright awful conditions from all involved, with the immense physicality of the Irish forwards in particular not bothering England in the slightest.


However things are rarely that simple with regards to Le Crunch. As dire as France were against Italy and as dour as they were against Wales, few sides can motivate themselves for the one off occasions like the French can and it’s less than two years ago that this England side found themselves on the backlash of a France side that that had just been turned over by Tonga in their final group game; Just two matches later they found themselves in the final pushing New Zealand to just one point for the victory. This is a far superior England side and France will have to raise their game by many levels upon their first two displays to compete, but much of those displays came down towards a lack of width and creativity, mostly through the faults of fly half Frederik Michalak, who was so impressive during the Autumn but so dire this year, and the misplacing of several players in the backline.



Saint Andre’s eight changes this week are a massive statement of intent towards improving their chances for what he calls ‘his Grand Slam’.  The half back pairing of Machenaud and Michalak are dumped in favour of Parra and Trinh-Duc, both of whom have been in more impressive form for their clubs this season (with Trinh Duc having played most of his season at 10 unlike Michalak, who has been forced to sit at 9 for Wilkinson at Toulon), Vincent Clerc coming onto the wing and potentially most importantly, Wesley Fofana (seen above on wing) finally moving back towards his favored inside centre. These changes, along with the return to the side of Tomas Domingo and Yannick Nyanga, should bring an improved penetration and threat towards the attacking side of their game and make the contest competitive, but France’s away record in the 6 Nations does not make for impressive reading – they’ve beaten just Scotland since winning 22-25 at Ireland two years ago, and their record against England is even worse. Since the turn of the century on English soil, Les Bleus have lost 6 of their 8 matches on English soil – one of their wins being a calamitous 18-17 win where Charlie Hodgson and Olly Barkley missed six penalties and a drop goal between them. 


A seven point handicap on this year’s form would is more than fair – France have failed to cover that margin in 7 of the last 9 matches between England and France at Twickenham (which stretches back to 1999), although 3 of those 7 were by exactly 8 points. Of all the matches between the two in the last 5 years, only 6 out of 10 have been decided by more than 12 points, and with an improved French performance in mind, that might be the way to go; As a supplement, the remaining 8/11 on England leading at half and full time also looks worth backing, when you consider that England have led at half time in 6 of their last 7 home games, while France have led only once at half-time in their last six games in the Six Nations.


Advice


4 pts England to win by 1-12 points (11/8 general)


2 pts England/England (8/11 general)

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