Cast your mind back towards the beginning
of this year’s 6 Nations tournament, or better still, the end of the November
Internationals. Stuart Lancaster’s England had just destroyed World Cup winners
New Zealand, while Phlippe Saint Andre’s France side had just completed a 100%
Autmnun Series with relative ease against a Physical Samoa side after thrashing
Australia and Argentina inbetween. At the time the two were joint favourites
for this year’s 6 Nations, and many had earmarked this fixture as the potential
title decider between the two. Things have changed in the interim.
Whisper it quietly and don’t tell Stuart
Lancaster, but England come here no bigger than evens for the Grand Slam having
won their two games, while France are strongly facing the prospect of a wooden
spoon following two defeats, the first time they’ve done so in a 5/6 Nations
season since 1982, both in performances totally devoid of the strength or flair
they bough towards the Autumn Internationals, making England – who have lost at
home just twice in the 6 Nations since 2010 – the heaviest of favourites for a
clash which was seen as a Grand Slam decider just a few months ago. Wales’s
improvement since the beginning of this championship means that nothing will be
decided here at Twickenham today, but pass this test and England have just
Italy and Wales between them and a first Grand Slam since 2003.
And if the first two weeks are anything to
go by, then only one team will be winning this game. England’s 38-18 win over
Scotland could easily have been more comfortable and was an impressive marker
of intent, although their first win in Ireland since 2003 was a masterclass of
game management, breakdown skill, and composure in downright awful conditions
from all involved, with the immense physicality of the Irish forwards in
particular not bothering England in the slightest.
However things are rarely that simple with
regards to Le Crunch. As dire as France were against Italy and as dour as they
were against Wales, few sides can motivate themselves for the one off occasions
like the French can and it’s less than two years ago that this England side
found themselves on the backlash of a France side that that had just been
turned over by Tonga in their final group game; Just two matches later they found
themselves in the final pushing New Zealand to just one point for the victory.
This is a far superior England side and France will have to raise their game by
many levels upon their first two displays to compete, but much of those
displays came down towards a lack of width and creativity, mostly through the
faults of fly half Frederik Michalak, who was so impressive during the Autumn
but so dire this year, and the misplacing of several players in the backline.
Saint Andre’s eight changes this week are a
massive statement of intent towards improving their chances for what he calls
‘his Grand Slam’. The half back pairing
of Machenaud and Michalak are dumped in favour of Parra and Trinh-Duc, both of
whom have been in more impressive form for their clubs this season (with Trinh
Duc having played most of his season at 10 unlike Michalak, who has been forced
to sit at 9 for Wilkinson at Toulon), Vincent Clerc coming onto the wing and
potentially most importantly, Wesley Fofana (seen above on wing) finally moving back towards his
favored inside centre. These changes, along with the return to the side of
Tomas Domingo and Yannick Nyanga, should bring an improved penetration and
threat towards the attacking side of their game and make the contest
competitive, but France’s away record in the 6 Nations does not make for
impressive reading – they’ve beaten just Scotland since winning 22-25 at
Ireland two years ago, and their record against England is even worse. Since
the turn of the century on English soil, Les Bleus have lost 6 of their 8
matches on English soil – one of their wins being a calamitous 18-17 win where
Charlie Hodgson and Olly Barkley missed six penalties and a drop goal between
them.
A seven point handicap on this year’s form
would is more than fair – France have failed to cover that margin in 7 of the
last 9 matches between England and France at Twickenham (which stretches back
to 1999), although 3 of those 7 were by exactly 8 points. Of all the matches
between the two in the last 5 years, only 6 out of 10 have been decided by more
than 12 points, and with an improved French performance in mind, that might be
the way to go; As a supplement, the remaining 8/11 on England leading at half
and full time also looks worth backing, when you consider that England have led
at half time in 6 of their last 7 home games, while France have led only once
at half-time in their last six games in the Six Nations.
Advice
4 pts England to win by 1-12 points (11/8
general)
2 pts England/England (8/11 general)
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