France had been many people’s favourites for the 6 Nations
before the event started but they’re as big as 11/2 for the tournament now
having found all the old demons coming back to strike them once again as they
lost to Italy for the second straight away game; Wales are defending Grand Slam
Champion who have lost their last eight games. Fair to say then, that this is
the definition of a ‘must win’ game for the two sides.
Philippe Saint Andre’s side came into this year’s tournament
as strong favourites for many after an Autumn International campaign that was
easily the most successful of the European nations over the 4 weeks, trashing
Australia and Argentina while easily subduing Samoa with their force of their
pack. A simple look at those performances and one has to wonder how they could
possibly have dropped in performance so badly, but this is a side that is as infuriatingly
inconsistent as any in sport.
The last time that Italy beat France they actually returned to
thrash Wales 28-9 back on home turf in 2011, and there’s a feeling that Rob
Howley’s men – who were just as bad for large parts of their 22-30 defeat to
Ireland – could be in for the famed backlash’. There is evidence to support
this; France bounced back from their defeat to Tonga to beat England in their
World Cup quarter final and have responded well to defeat in the past, but whether
they’re worthy 9 point favourites is very doubtful. France only beat Italy at
home in last season’s tournament, drawing with Ireland and then losing to
England, on both occasions giving starts in double figures at half time.
A similar start against a side with a backline as talented
as Wale’s would spell disaster – both England and Ireland cut France’s defence
to pieces last year – and the lack of width that France displayed last week
would also play right into Welsh hands too considering their blitz defence.
With Fofana still on the wing and Bastaeraud in the centre France are still all
about size rather speed and agility, which will be all well and good if this
Wales backline wasn’t the biggest in European, if not world, rugby. When all is
said and done a start of 9 points looks extremely generous for the Welsh on multiple
evidence but a giant comeback could on bring them within eight points of
Ireland. France on all evidence will be much less incisive at the breakdown 0
with Justin Tipuric likely to have things all his own way at the breakdown if
France’s forwards are as lackadaisical as last week. At the end of the day, the
home side to win by 1-12 points looks to be the best value if unable to trust
the Welsh, although over 39 points also makes appeal – Ireland alone scored 30
against them last week and France were frequent scorers in the Autumn, notably
against Australia and Argentina.
Advice
1 pt France to win by 1-12 points (7-5 Betfred)
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