European Rugby - 29th December 2012

Having had the pleasure of being at Sandy Park for two Heineken Cup games this season, I’ve got no greater Premiership wish than to see Exeter make the European places once again and the Chiefs can take a big step towards that aim by gaining a first win over Bath in four attempts. Bath were the last team to beat Exeter, but it’s never easy going to the Rec and the Chiefs could easily have won that game but for a late onslaught at a 14 man side which were reeling badly following Dan Hipkiss’s second yellow. Exeter have won their last 5 at home in the League and only went down by 2 points to a Gloucester side riding high in the table at Kingsholm, so are the clear choice here with Bath reeling from a 22-0 thrashing at the hands of Saracens last time out. The handicap of just 5 points is tempting (it would have been overcome on all but one occasion at Sandy Park, and that against Saracens), but the ‘no draw’ second half handicap of 2.5 points is especially tempting given Exeter’s penchant for strong finishes at home (they’ve scored 18 out of 29 tries in the second half), and allows us to avoid the decision on a winning margin (Exeter by 1-12 has come in only against Sacarens at the Park so far and if Bath are as hapless as last week they could get another drubbing once again).

 

Nearer the top of table, Leicester can take a step closer to the top of table with a win against Gloucester, although it might not be pretty with a wet and windy forecast for Welford Road tonight. These two team provided arguably the game of the season when Gloucester emerged 27-21 winners in a pulsating encounter in October, and it would be foolish to expect anything different this time around, although with Leciester having battered the Cherry and Whites’ pack that day – they let in 20 penalties and had just 13 men on the pitch at the end – and the home advantage, they should be able edge a physical encounter. Gloucester have lost just two road trips in the league though, pushing Quins to three points and Saracens to 5, so thee 1-12 winning margin is the one place we go to here, with the 1-5 winning margin market being worthy of interest.

In Ireland, the big provincial derby is a done deal according to bookmaker who give Munster a handicap start in the mid-teens, presumably based upon the 110 changes made from their win over Leinster at Ravenhill. Only Craig Gilroy and Luke Marshall in the backs, and Neil McComb and Robbie Diack in the forwards, are retained from the team which beat Leinster 27-19 last Friday night and that, combined with the home advantage for Munster, should see a only a second defeat of the season inflicted upon Mark Anscombe’s men, but a handicap in the mid-teens is disrespectful and the home side to win by 1-12 looks the best bet.

The other big province – Leinster – have lost their last three games in a row, something that’s not happened since May 2010. However Clermont and Ulster are the best two sides going in Europe right now and a home fixture against Connacht is the perfect tonic for Joe Schmidt’s men, who have the luxury of being able to name a side which still has Andrew Goodman, Fionn Carr, Issac Boss and Heinke van der Merwe despite making 9 changes from the side that lost to Ulster last Friday night. A home win by more than 13 points at 8/11 with Ladbrokes looks to be good value.

Tomorrow, Saracens can keep up their strong recent run of form with a win over Northampton, who may well be reeling from a comprehensive defeat to Harlequins at home last week. The 13 point difffence there was the biggest winning margin between any of England’s ‘top sides’ (Gloucester included) while Saracens have not beaten any of the other top sides by more than the 10 points they beat Saints at their place. At ‘home’ (this is being played at the Stadium MK) one would think there’s the potential for that winning margin to be extended, but a a heavy pitch might keep the margin in the 1-12 zone.

Advice- Aviva Premiership

3 pts Exeter – 2.5 on 2^nd half no draw handicap (4/5 Betfred)

2 pts Leicester to win by 1-12 points (13/8Paddy Power)

1 pt Saracens to win by 1-12 points (6/4 general)

Advice – Rabo Direct Pro12

2 pts Leinster to win by 13 or more points (8/11 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Ulster to win by 1-12 points (9/4 Stan James)  

Istabraq Festival Hurdle 2012

2.00 Leopardstown

Istabraq Festival Hurdle (grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner €55,250

Captain Cee Bee: Not quite the beast of old (Supreme Novices Hurdle winner, Grade 1 winner over fences as novice before reverting) but has shown spark in recent runs and Grade 2 win as good as he’s been in older years; Beaten 12 lenghts by Hurricane Fly in Morgiana Hurdle.

Hurricane Fly: Lost his title of Champion Hurdler at Cheltenham and felt slightly laboured at Punchestown afterwards but easy to forget he’s been beaten just twice in last three seasons and is still the outstanding choice here; Sure to be given a race when ill-fated Go Native sadly fell at the last in Morgiana; Not sure today will tell us much more about him.

Thousand Stars: Remarkably consistent horse who won his third Grade 1 when winning French Champion Hurdle at Auteil (that having come after his close Aintree Hurdle second two runs previously, along with convincing trial win) but miles below that when fourth on return at Tipperary (might have needed run); Also beaten by Unaccompanied in this last year (for all that he reversed that form with ease in Irish Champion in Jan); Place chance at best.

Tilabay: Impossible to fancy.

Unaccompanied: Game and gutsy winner of this a year ago when overturning Thousand Stars, although way below that form when fourth in Irish Champion a month later; Flat form bodes well for this first start of this season and should give a game account of herself here even if not able to cope with Hurricane Fly.

VERDICT: The fall of the sadly demised Go Native denied us of an opportunity to see what form HURRCIANE FLY is in this season, but he shouldn't need to be at his best to beat Unaccompanied and Thousand Stars, who can fight it out for second. 

Challow Hurdle 2012

2.45 Newbury

Betfred Mobile Sports Challow Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £17,085

Advice: 2 pts Taquin Du Seuil w/o Clondaw Kaempfer (10/11 Ladbrokes)

Awaywiththegreys: Scored twice over hurdles, winning soft ground events well at Aintree (June) and Chepstow in good tyle but third in Aintree handicap was a well beaten one off just 135 and this a big step up in class.

Ballybough Pat: Very progressive since leaving PTP field, winning well at Carlislie from useful runner up and then second in Chepstow Grade 2 and decent handicap here latest (3m, soft); Might have more to offer but couple look better than him today (rated 137).

Claondaw Kaempfer: Looked to have a bright future when winning valuable sales bumper at Fairyhouse in April for Colin Bowe and even more impressive in two starts for Donald McCain, readily beating previous French winner with ease on first start under rules (2m4f) at Aintree and having no problems dropping back to 2m when winning Listed Hurdle at Haydock (gave 6lbs and a 3 &1/2 length beating towards Lineosous, which has him closely matched with Ballybough Pat); Plenty of speed and would handle better ground, but won twice on fairly deep going and this trip no problem, so should play a big hand.

Easter Day: Another who’s unbeaten over hurdles, winning impressively at Fontwell (extended 2m2f) and Ascot (2m6f) where he showed encouraging amounts of stamina towards the end of his race; Can go well here with that in mind, and although he’s never been on heavy, won twice on soft ground; Should go well.  

Lucky Vic: Improved on all previous starts when landing Uttoxeter maiden and Ffos Las novice hurdle in June (soft both occasions) but this a much tougher test and very little substance to his wins.

Taquin Du Seuil: Useful on the flat in France and made strong start to hurdling career when running away with Uttoexeter maiden, and even better was to come when he failed to give weight to My Tent Or Yours at Ascot over 2m on good ground; Coped fine with heavy when easy winner of Grade 2 at Sandown latest (very strong guide to this contest in recent) and leading contender here.

VERDICT: A small but select 6 make for an interesting renewal, with TAQUIN DU SEUIL getting the vote to give Jonjo O’Neil a fourth win in this, on the basis that his form is marginally stronger and that he’s won on heavy ground, even if the Grade 2 he won was weak the level. Donalds McCain’s Clondaw Keampfer is a hugely respected rival though, enough to make our advised bet the 10/11 that Ladbrokes are offering without the favourite (who happens to be Clondaw Keampfer), even though Easter Day’s guaranteed stamina makes him a big threat. 

Premiership - 29th December 2012

Sunderland (11/4) v Tottenham (23/20)

A mixture of extreme fortune and dedicated energy allowed Sunderland to shock Manchester City but Tottenham have far more threat out wide and on the road in general - they average 2.2 goals a game on the road, more than anyone in the league – and have already won 5 away games, which is impressive considering that last it took minute goals from Everton and Manchester City to beat them in games they could feel that they should have won.

Advice: 2 pts Tottenham (23/20 Coral)

Aston Villa (7/5) v Wigan (9/4)

Aston Villa have lost their last two games by an aggregate of 12-0 but it’s important to remember that those came against the third and fourth best teams in the league and that they had been unbeaten for a month before that. However, they’re still vulnerable at the moment and if they defend as badly as they did against Tottenham then Wigan – who played well against Arsenal and Everton – can take advantage.

Advice: 1 pt Wigan (9/4 general)

Fulham (23/20) v Swansea (11/4)

Fulham are thoroughly opposable at odds against given that they’ve won just once since October and failed to score in four of their last 7. Swansea look a better team this season than last and are tempting at 11/4, but the absence of Michu – without his goals the Swansea would be in 16^th – just tempers enthusiasm for the straight win. However the 8/11 on them with a goal start (effectively a double chance) is appealing given how they dominated against Reading at the Madjeski and held Manchester United.

Advice: 2 pts Swansea +1 (8/11 general)

Manchester United (1/3) v West Brom (10)

Manchester United were at it once again when coming back at the death to beat Newcastle but a similar performance against West Brom could leave them in a lot of trouble. The Baggies were lucky to win at QPR last weekend but if enough gaps are left open the Steve Clarke’s side can fancy yheir chances of at least getting on the scoreboard, even if United get through in the end.

Advice: 1 pt Both teams to score and Manchester Utd to win (7/4 Ladbrokes)

Norwich (11/2) v Manchester City (8/13)

Manchester City have been below par for a good while and once again look vulnerable for a side that has won just 4 games on the road in the league this season two of those requiring last minuit winners and one of those coming against a side currently in 18^th. There were worries that Norwich would go down after a desperately poor run of form to start the season but Chris Hughton has seemingly worked the oracle judged upon a 10 game unbeaten run which saw them beat Arsenal and Manchester United and there’s no discredit in defeats at West Brom (who have an exceptional home record) and against Chelsea, who have been on fire of late. Chris Hughton’s men can spring another small upset, or at the very least stay in a one goal Asian H’Cap.  

Advice: 3 pts Norwich +1 on Asian H’Cap (8/11 Bet Victor)

Reading (19/10) v West Ham (13/8)

Reading drawn all five of their matches at home to teams outside the top seven while West Ham have scored just five away goals this season, fewer than any other side. The draw looks to be the best bet.

Advice: 1 pt Draw (12/5 general)

Stoke (5/6) v Southampton (4)

Stoke put in their most impressive performance of the season when beating Liverpool 3-1 and a repeat of that would be enough to see them stop Southampton’s recent better run of form. However Nigel Adkin’s side have shaped up at the back, conceding less than two goals in each of their last eight matches. A narrow home win is the best bet.

Advice:  1 pt Stoke to win by one goal (11/4 Bet365)

Lexus Chase 2012

3.00 Leopardstown

Lexus Chase (grade 1) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner €93,000

Advice: 2 pts place Tidal Bay (8/11 Bet Victor)

China Rock: Has his fair share of niggles for on with so much talent but brilliant training saw him come back to best to win Punchestown Gold Cup in second Grade 1 race of the week for him; That a much weaker race than this and first run since so passed over.

First Lieutenant: Relatively poor first season chasing but improved hand over fist for good ground and three miles when second to Bobs Worth in RSA and given good ground and galloping track, once again showed his best when fantastic front running third in Hennessey (famously put in giant leap at third last); Could be even better than that if less use made of him but bit to find with the principals, and far worse off with Tidal Bay today.

Flemenstar: Beaten just once over fences on debut but looked like a potential great on other occasions, destrying Grade 1 fields as a novice in Irish Arkle here and Powers Gold Cup before biggest possible notice that he could be Gold Cup player when demolishing Sir Des Champs In John Durkan; First try at 3m but trip should be no problem and worthy favourite for all that runner up last time has far more in his favour.

Hidden Cyclone: Fairly remarkable to think that he’s had just the 11 rules start, only four of those being over fences; Only defeat over bigger obstacles came to Sir Des Champs in Grade 2 over 2m4f last year and while that was comprehensive, he wasn’t right at the time and is a better horse now judged by two impressive wins over a lesser distance; Can go well.

Midnight Chase: Improved 36lbs in the space of just a season when fifth in Gold Cup behind Long Run and to his credit did beat Tidal Bay (different horse now) giving him 6lbs in Argento Chase (then seventh in Gold Cup) ; Return behind Silviniaco Conti a good one but others make more appeal here.

Pandorama: Only Mikael D’Haugenet got the better of this one as a novice hurdler and unbeaten in three as a novice chaser, running away with the Drinmore Novice Chase before beating none other than RSA Chase winner Weapon’s Amnesty; Gold Cup on cards after romp in this two years ago but didn’t handle the faster surface there and not run since; Classy but can only be watched.

Quito De La Roque: Very good at his best, winning inning four from five novice starts including Grade 2 at Aintree and same Grade 1 at Punchestown Festival that Sir Des Champs won; However not quite delivered on that promise since and very disappointing in Listed company at Aintree latest; Suspicion is that he needs a right slog.

Sir Des Champs: Arguably the best of a vintage crop of novice last year, going 5-5 over fences mooth win at the Cheltenham Festival (2m4f, good) which promised more for this year, notably when stepped up in trip (only once run over 3m in non – event that was the Growise Champion Chase at Punchestown Festival); No match for Flemenstar in John Durkan but very much caught cold in terms of fitness and will be seen to much better effect over this trip, while the ground today should suit him far more than the very deep surface that he faced earlier this month; Big chance today.

Tidal Bay: As quirky as any horse in racing but top class when he consents and may be mellowing with age now, as he showed when romping away with Bet365 Gold Cup (3m5f, soft, but ground not an issue) off top weight (154) on last start of last season an good sign when winning Grade 2 hurdle easily on reappearance; Potentially even better than that when second in Hennessy under top weight, well beaten by Bobs Worth but giving him 6lbs, with First Lieutenant well behind; That form gives him terrific chance here for trainer who has won this twice in recent years.

VERDICT: One of the strongest renewals in memory of this race, with two of Ireland’s best Gold Cup prospects for some time going ahead. Flemenstar is a worthy favourite for whom there should be no questions over the trip, but Sir Des Champs will be a different proposition over 3 miles with the run under his belt and the better surface to boot. In any case, both will be challenged hard by TIDAL BAY, who’s Hennessey second is one of the best performances by a staying chaser this season on ratings and with his mental issues looking to have been restrained, the 8/11 offered on him filling a top 3 spot with Bet Victor looks to be excellent value. It’s a mark of the quality of this race that horses such as Hidden Cyclone and First Lieutenant are not generally expected by the market to play a leading role. 

Topaz Novice Chase 2012

2.25 Leopardstown

Topaz Novice Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner €48,750

Advice: 1 pt win Back In Focus (11/8 Bet Victor)

Aupcharlie: Really promising third in the Cheltenham Bumper of three years ago and while he wasn’t all that over hurdles, opened new route over fences with fantastic round of jumping to take beginners chase at Gorwan Park in superb style; Should go well here upped in trip and looked a natural over  his fences first time out.

Back In Focus: Only the five runs under rules but showed huge engine and major potential when beating Court In Motion by 6 lengths with ease in 3m Haydock Grade 2 (heavy); Presumably not back right when he was absent for 15 months after running on fast ground in 3m Grade 1, but showed what he’s all about again when winning on chasing debut by 33 lengths; Made to work much harder for his win in Punchestown Grade 2 over Lyreen Legend but step up in trip should help (looked much the better as he went on) so the one to beat here for all this ground will be quicker and more demanded of him; Should go close.

Benefficent: Former point winner  who sprung 50/1 shock in Deloitte Novice Hurdle last year (exposed since) and best effort since when second in Newbury Grade 2 (unlucky to get one on the line by smart runner up, to whom he was giving 3lbs) but hardly ideal preparation to have been running over 2m on Wednesday; Much more needed.

Cootamundra: Already showing great deal of potential over fences, going well in a close fourth when falling in Grade 3 on debut and then performing with credit when second to Oscars Well at Navan; All this looked even better when you consider that he peaked over 3m as hurdler and can outrun his price.

Dedigout: Best of these over hurdles last season, coming third in Grade 2 and then winning Grade 1 at backend of season at Punchestown Festival; Impressive destruction of susbeqent winner at Punchestown on chasing debut augured well but smashed out of sight by Arvika Legionnaire  n Drinmore; Gave exceptional winner far too much of a lead that day and stepped upto 3m, real contender here.

Mount Benbulben: Major potential as novice hurdler last season when impressive Grade 2 winner (then beaten by Boston Bob, who has won all but one start since), and forgiven no show at Cheltenham Festival (too keen); Didn’t have the pace for 2m on chasing debut and then fell but impressive win last time out a reminder of his talents and considered.

Pride Of The Artic: Rapidly progressive through the summer months, completing chasing four timer with victory in Tipperary Grade 3 but that came all the way back in October and thrashed by Dedigout when fourth in the Drinmore.

Texas Jack: One impressive win over fences but didn’t go on when having looked very good as novice hurdler and easily beaten into third in Drinmore.

Tofino Bay: Smart hurdler when he put his mind to it (comprehensive win at Punchestown Festival his best success) and already bettered that over fences when taking Troytown Handicap Chase on just his third start over big obstacles in desperately heavy ground; Had to show plenty of heart to do win there but

Tusa Eire: Little chance on all known form.

Jenari: Had looked set to become disappointing over hurdles but put that right when relishing the step up in trip to land Grade 2 in good style, and going well when falling in Grade 1 over 2m4f at Punchestown in the same race which was won by Dedigout; Impressive return and chasing debut at Naas (beat Mount Benbulben) and while he’s been poor twice since, choice of McCoy over the Westerner Boy and worse horses you could take a flyer on.

Lyreen Legend: Revelation over hurdles last season (won Grade 2 event in clear cut style, second in very strong event in same Grade/trip) and then third in Grade 1 behind Dedigout; Looked just as good over fences when making classy debut but well beaten by Back In Focus and this extra trip only to that one’s favour.

The Westerner Boy: Went to the front and just didn’t stop jumping when thrashing Grade 1 winner Marasonnien and Navan; However that one’s form is dubious and others preferred here.

VERDICT: A strong renewal with plenty having chances, although the class acts look to be BACK IN FOCUS and Dedigout. Willie Mullins’s charge looked to be in trouble two out at Punchestown when Lyreen Legend moved up but fought back courageously and will be more suited by the step up in trip than any of the field here and can pass his toughest test. 

woodiesdiy.com Christmas Hurdle 2012

1.25 Leopardstown

woodiesdiy.com Christmas Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner €26,000

Advice: 6 pts place Monksland (4/6 Paddy Power), 1 pt win Monksland (4/1 general)

Zaidpour: Built upon novice campaign in style last year when winning first four races (Champion Hurdle too good for him on quick ground) but exceptional record on soft or worse and first Grade 1 win came in style in Hatton’s Grace on seasonal reappearance; 2lbs Grade 1 penalty to carry but record on soft exceptional and so is record outside Grade 1 company’ Winner over distance and the one to beat on form.

Monksland: Impressive novice hurdler, marking himself down as one to follow with impressive win in Slaney Novice Hurdle followed by third in Neptune Novice Hurdle at the Festival; Been just as good this year, overcoming mistake at last to win Grade 2 hurdle easily on debut and making smart late headway to come second to Zaidpour in Hatton’s Grace; Looks set to thrive over 3m and now 2lbs better off with him as well, so should go close.

Owega Star: Top attitude shown at the end of Navan Grade 2 when finding enough to beat Maller Tree, although not gone any further than 2m4f and looked second best to the favourite when he fell (no match for that rival the time before); Others make more appeal.

Rigour Back Bob: More than enough class to get involved, 5^th in World Hurdle of 2011 (nothing was finishing faster on that occasion, and has been second to Voler La Vedette at Navan and third in this race beforehand) and two runs since falling at Punchestown have been more than good enough to give him form hand; Interesting.

Whatuthink: Took advantage of presumably very below par Voler La Vedtte and excellent ride from Tom Doyle to when running out ready and surprise winner of Lismullen Hurdle; Tried to do same without success last time out and ended up 45 lengths behind Owega Star.

Folsom Blue: Struggled on return considering what a smart novice he was last term but better effort when trying to give 10lbs to a very useful sort at Thurles last time; Still has a mountain to climb in this company.

So Young: Began to regain the spark that had seen him sent off just 2/1 for 2011 Neptune Hurdle (third) in three wins last season before Cheltenham Festival; Beaten easily in Hatton’s Grace and hard to fancy him.

Maller Tree: Impressive on return at Naas in conditions hurdle, but unproven over any more than 2m4f and then no match for Owega Star latest; Others make more appeal.

Voler La Vedette: : Class act of the field based on her win in this last year, as well as her seconds in Championship 3m hurdles at the end of last season at spring festivals (had Big Bucks in solitary moment of trouble) but been shadow of that this season (breathing problem potentially to blame), leading to the last in Hatton’s Grace before being well beaten; Others make more appeal here although market move would be significant.

Weapon’s Amnesty: Would be able to pick these up and carry them if here in the form that saw him romp the 2010 RSA Chase (Burton Port and Long Run in behind and well beaten); Tremendous shame he’s been out for three years and could only really be watched unless there are signs of something different.

VERDICT: Following his convincing win in the Hatton’s Grace, Zaidpour deserves respect and is the one to beat, but MONKSLAND looked like he’d really improve for a step up in trip and gets that today with the added benefit of a 2lbs pull for a 2 and half-length beating, so is the value at 4/1 to overturn that form, with odds of 4/6 for a top three finish looking like a strong bet. A back to form Volder La Vedette is a huge threat but there’s no way of being able to trust her on this season’s form and even if back to her best, our choice is a strong one. Another fascinating angle to the race is added by the return of one-time Gold Cup hope Weapon's Amnesty. 

Paddy Power Dial-a-bet Chase 2012

1.25 Leopardstown

Paddy Power Dial-a-bet Chase (grade 1) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner €65,000

Advice: 1 pt Sizing Europe – Big Zeb straight forecast (8.23 Bet365), 1 pt Big Zeb w/o Sizing Europe (7/2 general)

Big Zeb: Veteran of 2m chasing game who has 6 Grade 1 wins, last of those archived in this race a year to the day (retaining title for the second time) and showed a lot of old spark when second (admittedly well beaten, but still second) to Flemenstar in Fortia Chase; Shouldn’t be able to cope with Sizing Europe (well down in head to heads) but can run with credit.

Edgardo Sol: Capped spectacular first season in UK with emphatic handicap chase win at Aintree by 14 lengths (now rated 150 over fences which still gives him a lot to do); Good return to hurdles when second in Newbury Listed handicap Hurdle but doesn’t look good enough.

Foildubh: Consistent sort, if not short of top class; Steady rise through taking big 2m5f race at Leopardstown looking unlucky when coming down in bid to take similar race next time out; Winner of a handicap hurdle and a handicap chase this year but not upto this standard.

Forpadydeplasterer: Amazing to consider that his latest win was his first since 2009 Arkle; Not quite the same horse he was then and trashed by Sizing Europe on their last meeting.

Rubi Light: Exceptional front running chaser at his best over intermediate trip on soft ground, as he showed when trashing rivals in 2m4f chases on two occasions last season; Very disappointing when unable to raise a gallop in John Durkan this year but badly wrong afterwards (infected lung); If back to his best, could take a big hand, but this trip shorter than he wants so would be out in front.

Sizing Europe: Lost his Champion Chase crown by fairly narrow margin (to high class horse in Finian’s Rainbow) but not after two brilliant performances, first in Tingle Creek and then in Tied Cottage Chase, and won yet another Grade 1 in gutsy style at Punchestown Festival; Looked as good as ever in two wins this season and shouldn’t be beaten here.

Blazing Tempo: Plenty of ability as her numerous wins show (including Garde 2 Normans Grove Chase) but well beaten in Hilly Way Chase latest and this a lot tougher.

VERDICT: SIZING EUROPE is a class apart on paper, with none of his rivals in the 160’s on official ratings and even then being held on form or needing further, he’s safe acca/banker material. Big Zeb, who’s second placed effort in the Fortia Chase now looks even better with Flemenstar’s John Durkan romp, can follow him home with Rubi Light coming back after a lung infection and Edgardo Sol having some to prove in this company.