Paddy Power Handicap Chase (0-145) Grade B Handicap (2011)

Ask many National Hunt fans what the most competitive race over the holiday period is  and you’ll get all kinds of answers, but my answer would be the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown (3.05).

With that in mind, I wouldn’t be thinking that it’s the strongest race for favourites, and it’s no surprise to see that favourites have won only two of the last 10 runnings. Granted, that’s par for the course in such a competitive event but it suggests that the Willie Mullins trained On His On isn’t great value at 7/1.

The money that’s come for him would usually suggest that he has a serious chance but the Graham Wylie recruit has not run since winning a handicap at Ayr in April – a break of 255 days – having disappointed (although a 40/1 shot) in the National Hunt Chase at the Festival, which is a tough stat to ignore. If any trainer can ready them, it’s Willie Mullins, but giving away the race fitness in this kind of event is a serious disadvantage and it caught out a similar, if not more proven type, in Mullins’s own Prince Du Beauchene when he started off favourite for the Troytown.

The kind of the horse that wins the race is usually aged between 6 to 8 (9 out of the last 10 winners), carries 10-8 or less (8 of last 10, the two exceptions being top weights), had run twice to four times since October, most likely in 1-7 handicap chases – also winning no more than once in that sphere – while also having winning or placed for at the track before.

Step forward Smoking Aces, who was a beaten favourite in the Cork National before landing Batterstown H'cap Chase at Fairyhouse. The way he travelled that day before catching the second suggested he had more improvement in him – he’s lightly raced – and with Tom Taffe having a winner and placed finisher from just 6 runners, he makes a lot of appeal stats wise, while dropping down to a strongly run three miles should be OK for him too.

Next best from this point of view would Becuaseicouldntsee (above left), a progressive and still lightly raced stayer who was runner-up in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham over four miles and ran yet another big race when second in last year’s renewal. Things haven’t gone right since – he fell at the second in the National – but he’s clearly been targeted at this, will turn up fit thanks to a nice pipe opener at Cork over two miles last time out. The 14/1 about him looks a little on the big side, so an each/way punt with the aim of reaching the places can’t hurt.

Groody Hill is sure to be popular after his Troytown effort, although he’s badly in with the runner up Ad Idem and is also trying to break the extraordinarily strong record of 6-8 year olds in this race. I still think he can hold Cross Appeal and the rest from that race though.

Others to be looked at include Rivage D’Or, a strong travelling, unexposed novice who’s been highlighted by Johnny Ward of the racing post, and Sona Sasta, a mud lover who returned with a second to Le Beau Bai -  fancied for the Welsh National - in heavy ground at Chepstow on his seasonal debut.

EXTRA: It appears I forgot that last year's Grand National second Western Charmer was running. After that effort (along with a well beaten but still creditable second to Quito De La Roque at the Punchestown Festival), and then a good warm up over hurdles, I couldn't leave him out of things.

Advice

1 pt each/way Smoking Aces (10/1 general)*

0.5 pts each/way Becuaseicouldntsee (14/1 general)*


0.5 pts each/way Western Charmer (25/1 Paddy Power) 


Paddy Power and Bet365 are going 1/4 the odds for 5 places