On twitter today, a systems guru told me something: “When it rides soft it's essential they act on it and are fit enough to see out the trip”,
and another tweeple replied: “Nick Millard's mantra… most important thing aboutform is the ground. I should listen to it more often. ;)” – With most of the
races yesterday being dominated by horses with good form and a preference for
soft ground, that saying rung true and given the wintry conditions expected
overnight, it’s likely that the ground will be just as testing.
Haydock’s Tommy Whittle Chase (2.45) usually tends to be a slog in
any case but this year make sure you’ve got a soft ground lover on your side,
and where better to start than Wymott (left), who has three wins ranging on soft to
heavy ground, including a Grade 2 over hurdles. That day he beat Wayward
Prince, who has since gone onto win twice over fences (also in Graded company),
Kennel Hill and Adams Island, who have both won since then.
Wymott himself made a perfect start to fencing this year,
beating a useful field with ease at Bangor and then winning strong events at
Exeter (next 4 home have since won) and once again at the same track before
being pulled up in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham (but injured himself there); He got
a drop of 4lbs in the handicap for that, and was sent to the Hennessy with high
hopes only to be caught out wide and possibly lacking for fitness on ground
that carried a lot of zip, for a horse that is best on soft ground according to
trainer Donald McCain, who told the Racing Post: "I'd be more than happy
to run him on good ground, although good ground at Newbury does bother me a
little bit”.
With that run under his belt, his chances are so strong that
even a short best price of 7/2 can’t put me off right now. Another horse who I
think has his chances enhanced by today’s race conditions is Cape Tribulation,
officially rated 155 in his prime over hurdles before switching to fences,
which brought mixed results last season although he got within two lengths of
Wayward Prince at Wetherby on good to soft ground, his standout performance
came on soft ground when romping away with a Grade 2 novice hurdle on soft
ground.
His connections also felt that he needs some cut underfoot
to show his best, as shown but this quote given before the Paddy Power Gold Cup
(he didn’t run); "We would love to run Cape Tribulation in the Paddy Power
but he would need proper good jumping ground to take his chance. He is in great
form but he is just a better horse with some give underneath.” – He gets his
ground today and could outrun odds of 9/1 with a nice pipe opener under his
belt in a useful handicap hurdle at Haydock which has seen Sa Suffit and Benny
Be Good already run excellent races in handicap chases, while Reindeer Dippin
and Knockara Beau have since run respectable races in second.
Going to Ascot, and Renard might be able to stretch his winning
run to four in a row in the 1.25 for Veneita Williams, who is aiming for a
third win in 5 years for this event. She had the progressive Rileyev entered
before leaving Passato in the race, which suggests he’s thought of pretty
highly and despite an 8lbs hike, he’s slected to make the 4 timer, with soft
ground to his advantage – something that can’t be said of Passato and Lancetto –
while Tara Royal may need the run badly, which leaves him with Polieto and King
Edmund to beat.
Advice
2 pts win Wymott, 2.45 Haydock, (7/2 general)
1 pt each/way Cape Tribulation, (9/1 general)
1 pt win Renard (3/1 Paddy Power, 11/4 general)
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