Thursday, 15 December 2011

Today's Racing - 16th December 2011


After another week full of Cheltenham clues, some harder to read than others, we end up with our highlight meeting for the week, which I can gladly say is at Ascot, one of the top class dual purpose tracks in the country.

As with the flat, it really tends to be a big yard’s track, and Paul Nicholls will be looking to get off to a flyer with Rocky Creek, well regarded by many before his odds on defeat at Exeter on his seasonal debut. That should see him improve enough to take a race but this isn’t a gimme and he could well be sent off at a very short price – He went off 8/11 for his debut – and he might shape the race for a bit of value.

Just how big Hadrian’s Approach will be is open to debate but there are a lot of good signs about him from the point to point field, where he ran and won just once over three miles – which stands him in good stead for today’s trip. The form has been boosted since, with the runner up going onto win at Galway under rules, and the fourth coming second and then winning, along with the fifth.  Coming from a yard in good form (Nicky Henderson) and for owners (Mr & Mrs R Kelvin Hughes) that know good prospects on all known evidence, and if ready to run., he should make a bold bid to get his rules career of to the best possible start.

There are other dangers too, like Fighting Flynn – who made plenty of late ground at Lingfield and should shape a better horse for the experience (along with some more distance) – Denail Highway,  - A once raced bumper winner who shaped as if he’d make a stayer when winning over 2 miles at Uttoexter – and Irish pointing winners The Druids Nephew and Winning Habit.
Handy Andy (Joe Tizzard,left) jumps the last flight and beats Our Father (Timmy Murphy) in the novices' hurdle<br />
Newbury 4.3.11 Pic:Edward Whitaker


There wasn’t a 10 to follow from the Vic Page this season – something that may well be rectified in a special of some kind – but if there was one, Our Father would have made the list with ease and a current price of 10/3 for his seasonal and handicap debut already suggests that there’s good vibes about this useful looking son of Shantou.

A deeply impressive winner of his hurdling debut, in a race that has since worked out well for the grade, he was beaten twice after, although both times he was carrying a penalty and on the last occasion it was evident that some physical growth would do him good. A few months off should help him in that regard and his form is already good anyway, so all seems set for a bold show.

The other two at the top of the market are copycat types, with Sir Du Bearn attempting to make some ground over hurdles after being slammed by Nadiya De La Vega on his one and only UK start over fences at Warwick (now 395 days ago). That form has since been franked by the winner and maybe a step up in trip will suit, given that his hurdles win came over 2m2f, and it would be no surprise at all to see him go well here. The same can be said of Dancing Dude, although there’s a real feeling that he got away with his attitude last time and in this sort of company it could well prove costly. If all three market leaders were to disappoint then Mighty Monty and Shuil Royale would be the first ports of call, although Spotlight’s Richard Austen should be respected when saying that Lightening Strike has a lenient mark.

Advice

1 pt win Hadrian’s Approach, 12.45 Ascot

1 pt win Our Father, 3.05 Ascot (7/2 Totesport, Betfred) 

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