After another week full of Cheltenham clues, some harder to
read than others, we end up with our highlight meeting for the week, which I
can gladly say is at Ascot, one of the top class dual purpose tracks in the
country.
As with the flat, it really tends to be a big yard’s track,
and Paul Nicholls will be looking to get off to a flyer with Rocky Creek, well
regarded by many before his odds on defeat at Exeter on his seasonal debut.
That should see him improve enough to take a race but this isn’t a gimme and he
could well be sent off at a very short price – He went off 8/11 for his debut –
and he might shape the race for a bit of value.
Just how big Hadrian’s Approach will be is open to debate
but there are a lot of good signs about him from the point to point field,
where he ran and won just once over three miles – which stands him in good
stead for today’s trip. The form has been boosted since, with the runner up
going onto win at Galway under rules, and the fourth coming second and then
winning, along with the fifth. Coming
from a yard in good form (Nicky Henderson) and for owners (Mr & Mrs R
Kelvin Hughes) that know good prospects on all known evidence, and if ready to
run., he should make a bold bid to get his rules career of to the best possible
start.
There are other dangers too, like Fighting Flynn – who made
plenty of late ground at Lingfield and should shape a better horse for the
experience (along with some more distance) – Denail Highway, - A once raced bumper winner who shaped as if
he’d make a stayer when winning over 2 miles at Uttoexter – and Irish pointing
winners The Druids Nephew and Winning Habit.
There wasn’t a 10 to follow from the Vic Page this season –
something that may well be rectified in a special of some kind – but if there
was one, Our Father would have made the list with ease and a current price of
10/3 for his seasonal and handicap debut already suggests that there’s good
vibes about this useful looking son of Shantou.
A deeply impressive winner of his hurdling debut, in a race
that has since worked out well for the grade, he was beaten twice after,
although both times he was carrying a penalty and on the last occasion it was
evident that some physical growth would do him good. A few months off should
help him in that regard and his form is already good anyway, so all seems set
for a bold show.
The other two at the top of the market are copycat types,
with Sir Du Bearn attempting to make some ground over hurdles after being
slammed by Nadiya De La Vega on his one and only UK start over fences at
Warwick (now 395 days ago). That form has since been franked by the winner and
maybe a step up in trip will suit, given that his hurdles win came over 2m2f,
and it would be no surprise at all to see him go well here. The same can be
said of Dancing Dude, although there’s a real feeling that he got away with his
attitude last time and in this sort of company it could well prove costly. If
all three market leaders were to disappoint then Mighty Monty and Shuil Royale
would be the first ports of call, although Spotlight’s Richard Austen should be
respected when saying that Lightening Strike has a lenient mark.
Advice
1 pt win Hadrian’s Approach, 12.45 Ascot
1 pt win Our Father, 3.05 Ascot (7/2 Totesport, Betfred)
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