William Hill King George VI Chase 2011

3.10 Kempton

William Hill King George VI Chase Grade 1 (Class 1) (4yo+)

Advice: 2 pts Captain Chris to beat Masterminded (5/6 Boylesports), 0.5 pt  Long Run - Captain Chris straight forecast (8.51 Bet365) 

Captain Chris: Took his time to get the hang of chasing but made into the leading novice chaser of last year with win in Arkle, followed up by gritty display at Punchestown; Has appeared only once this season, unseating after the last when looking set to win Haldon Gold Cup, and then being held up by training problems; That a worry but if he’s sent here then fitness must be assumed and he promises to improve a lot for the step up to three miles, which is long overdue; Interesting.

Diamond Harry: Brought all of his promise together when winning the Hennessy from similarly unexposed rival, moving like class act and winning in good time(Tendon injury kept him out of Gold Cup); Travelled ominously well in Betfair Chase but had no answers to pressure once things got serious and hard to see him placing today, even if it turns out the run was needed.

Golan Way: Got right back to best after a couple of disappointing shows  when running out ready winner of Future Stars Chase at Sandown; Admirable sort but feeling is he’ll be taken on for the lead and may not be good enough anyway.

Kauto Star: One of the hall of famers of jump racing, his place in the record books confirmed following a hat – trick of King George wins, and two Cheltenham Gold Cups (overall he has 15 Grade 1’s); Brought back the glory days with superb front running display in Betfair Chase, having been prepared to the minute to slam Long Run by seven lengths; Would have every chance if able to reproduce that same performance, although he'll need to match the improved improvement expected from Long Run; Should go well, however.

Long Run: Went from pretender to undisputed champion last term, storming home in King George and Gold Cup with tremendous late pace last year on both occasions; Had started that season being beaten off 158 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, so clear he improves for a seasonal comeback; Well held second behind Kauto Star when making several mistakes in Betfair, and while he should be a far improved horse this time round, it was a worry to see him clouting fences; The one to beat in no uncertain terms though.

Masterminded: Had begun to gain his doubters after spellbinding displays for last two seasons when a poor fourth in 2010 Champion Chase, but seemingly back to best in run up to last year’s festival; Pitching in there when making race – ending mistake in Champion Chase but as good as he’s ever been when cantering all over high quality field in Melling Chase, beating Albertas Run by 9 easy lengths; Well beaten on return at Aintree but had been rushed back for that and comes here off back of win over Somersby, giving 4lbs and running out a ready winner; That form taken a blow due to runner up’s defeat since, and safe to say career best will be needed to win here; No doubting his class and fact that he’s been prepared for it demands respect,  but this does offer a stamina test he hasn’t faced before.

Nacarat: Top class chaser on his day, as he showed when winning Grade 1 at Aintree, but has since disappointed three times and well held in fourth in last two renewals here; Best left.

Somersby: Has long threatened to land a big event, mostly when further than two miles (given that impression since 2010 Arkle); Ran Masterminded to a head in Victor Chandler Chase at beginning of a year but that rival holds the upper hand over longer distances and latest run in the Peterbrough Chase was very lacklustre, although it has been suggested he had breathing issue (tongue); Others convince more here.

VERDICT: What would have been seen as an forgone conclusion at the beginning of the season has developed into one of the potential races of the year. Long Run has had his position at the top of the staying tree challenged seriously by Kauto Star at Haydock and does come here with a lot to prove despite being a Gold Cup winner, but he was beaten in the Paddy Power off just 158 last season, so we know much more should be coming. He might be facing a much better Kauto Star than the one he beat last year, but when on song he’s shown he’s probably the better of the two, given his younger legs, and while just how much value there is in a price of 11/8 is debatable, opinions would change if he was to get any bigger on the day.  Masterminded is a massive threat but the trip represents a big question for him, and maybe CAPTAIN CHRIS can shake up the big two while beating Paul Nicholls's "second string". A poor preparation is a worry, but he finds for pressure, jumps well, and promises to improve for a step up to three miles and offers value at the current prices for a place, especially with question marks over the top three.