Sunday 21 November 2010

Ladbrokes Troytown Chase 2010

The Ladbrokes Troytown Chase is one of the top handicap chases all year in Ireland, although it’s generally a very messy event, with most of the contenders unable to come in off the back of a good run.

Based on the stats you’re looking for a horse aged 7 or 8, carrying 10-9 or less, officially rated 118 to 138 that finished in the first 4 on last completed outing, ran in the last 30 days, has won over 2M 6F+, is a Course winner, has run in 4 or fewer handicap chases (and won no more than ), Contested a graded chase and is a Second season chaser priced 10/1 or below.

As a 7 year old that won last time out running off a mark of 127, GOT ATTITUDE hits more trends than most and makes the most appeal of those left after trend shifting. He put up a good battling performance when we won at Galway towards the end of October and he shouldn't have any trouble with the heavy ground whilst a stiff track like Navan should bring out his best.

The only other that makes real appeal is ACROSS THE BAY, who looked a bright chasing prospect last term, winning on his debut in this sphere at Naas in February and has come runner-up on both completed starts since, including in a Grade 2 last time out. He’s still unexposed and can go well here.

Of the others, Arbour Supreme is of major interest but 2008 winner Notre Pere was the only horse in the past 10 years to win carrying more than 10-9 and he subsequently won the Welsh National and the Grade 1 Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup, a stat which would also take out Moskova & Siegemaster.

Hold The Pin, Jack The Bus, Will Jamie Run, and Lochan Lacha are all too old according to trends, while I think that Glenquest is an overrated favourite and For A Finish hasn’t beaten anything of real note in his last 2 wins and maybe just so high in the market because he’s won his last 2.

Recommendations

1 pt each/way Got Attitude (10/1 William Hill, Skybet)

1 pt each/way Across The Bay (12/1 William Hill, Skybet, Bet365)

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