5.50 Churchill Downs
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (C&G) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner $539,946 - 13 run
Pick: Master Of Hounds (win)
Typhoon Slew: Tired very very badly when beaten by Soldat two runs back so can’t be backed in this, which is a better race.
Deciphering Dreams: Won a maiden restricted to New – York Breds but was then beaten into third by Air Support and Soldat in the Pilgrim Stakes; Needs to pull out a real rabbit out of that hat to reverse the form and win this.
Manotba: Put straight into Novice Stakes on debut and has followed a typical path of progression for a runner from that stable, winning a maiden in goods style and lengthening really well from two decent rivals last time; Will take another step up today and contender.
Air Support: Squeezed out at the start and ran green when fourth to Soldat in the Pilgrim Stakes 2 starts back; Showed merit of experience when squeezing out that rival (still closely matched); Stronger the pace the better for a middle distance type and not easily discounted.
Master Of Hounds: Has turned into a typical late developer, and good one at that; Gave the now confirmed as top class Roderic’ O ‘Connor too big a lead when second to runs back and got squeezed up at the wrong time in Racing Post Trophy last time out; That form gives him big chance here and every chance he’ll like the intensity of the races.
Utley: Confirmed decent debut impression made on debut when landing 7f Doncaster maiden in workmanlike style; Chased a very strong pace in very strong renewal of Prix Jean Luc last time and while he comes out with credit from that, he did fade late; Many comparisons will be made with last year’s winner Pounced but he was second in that race; Comes here with every chance.
Willcox Inn: Broke his maiden on dirt before beating beaten only a short distance in a Group 1 on Polytrack last time; May not need to do a lot to feature although turf might be a question mark.
Banned: Hard to assess because he hasn’t been asked to run at top speed in two very impressive wins so far, being shown the stick only once; Condition’s race or maiden races opposition long way below what’s seen here, but looks well up to it and not an awful lot between top and bottom tree of American turf juveniles.
Soldat: Won the Pilgrim Stakes in great style, beating Deciphering Dreams and Air Support convincingly but had from reversed decisively when beaten last time; Faded quickly that day and could be caught for pace again.
Madman Diaries: Ran over nothing but 6f or less in 5 lifetime races; Will he settle enough to last the trip and if so, good enough?
Rough Sailding: Beaten a length by Major Gain and a weakish renewal of the Washington Futurity and didn’t cover himself in glory (for all that he was stepped up big time) when a lengths behind that horse as the pair were beaten 10 & 11 lengths in Dixiana Futurity last time out.
Humble And Hungry: Broke maiden last time out but not with as much class or promise as some others in this field and looks to be up against it.
Pluck: Would be unbeaten in 3 turf starts if not for greenness stopping him getting there in minor stakes race (got disqualified for bumping rivals); Managed to win despite being green last time but needs a lot more here.
VERDICT: John Gosden’s record means that Utley should be accorded the utmost respect but last year’s winner (Pounced) did have better form going into the race while he did fade late on. That said, he chased a really strong pace with good rivals on fast ground and is a major player. Air Support looks like the most likely of the home contenders but Banned is unexposed and Willcox Inn has better form than most, at a big price. MASTER OF HOUNDS has drawn well in stall 5 and has bumped into some very good juveniles at home this year. He’s improving with every run and should take all the beating, if getting a clear run.
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