7.15 Churchill Downs
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 2) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner $539,946 - 15 run
Pick: Chamberlain Bridge (win)
Chamberlain Bridge: Has won half of this thirty starts and really should be unbeaten here, as he got badly squeezed coming round the turn and too late when desperately unlucky second to Silver Timber earlier this year; Has won 5 of 6 starts in these conditions (should be 6) and had ideal prep for this last time when forced 5 wide when fourth behind rivals last time; Will like a furious gallop and should get it.
Central City: Has twice been nabbed late by Silver Timber over 5-6f this year and it’s very likely that he’ll be pressed for the lead, so unlikely to get home.
Stradvinsky: In the form of his life this year, having taken a Grade 3 after winning three claimers in a row and then finish a half-length third to Chamberlain Bridge; Won 6 from 9 at this trip and run close in 3 losses, but as a front runner the feat is he’ll be taken on way too hard.
Unzip Me: Looks very promising when you see that she has won seven of last eight starts, but those wins were all against fillies, and her sole loss was against males in an ungraded stakes (came third); Tearaway front runner who will be too hard pressed, especially in this company.
Silver Timer: Had a good year last year (Gained a double in allowance company and took the Jaipiur at Belmont before running cannonball very close in the Commentator Stakes, with a defeat of decent sprinter Mr Nightlinger in the Woodford Stakes); Didn’t quite stay the extended trip of this last year but has won 5 Graded stakes and beaten rivals Central City, Due Date, Ravalo, and Chamberlain Bridge, (latter in conspicuous circumstances); Major player.
Waveline: Looks held on her second to Unzip Me last time, as that rival has been beaten by better horses since and reopposes.
Bridgetown: Flattened out badly in the Nearctic Stakes last time at the 300 yard pole, which is worrying given he’ll have 5 our 6 pressing him to lead here; Worth a look on his three front running wins but this race much better.
Quick Enough: Ran California Flag to a photo in a minor stakes race 2 runs back but he was getting 6lbs for him that race and he’s not as good over this trip; Seemingly improved/ran to same level of form last time when taking weakish Grade 3 and lot more on here, even if he probably will get involved.
Rose Catherine: Is six from 6 in Turf Sprints, and never been fully extended at any single time; All those starts against fillies and mares but puts her fields away in style of superior horse and has left energy to spare on every occasion; From right yard to do so and looks strongest of pacesetters.
Due Date: Yet to win race over $50,000 in eight tries and best left alone.
Grand Adventure: Is five from eight over 6&1/2 furlongs to 1 mile but never scored below 6f (had 5 tries at it);Has achieved a very good level of form this year though, running close competitor Silver Timber of a neck over 5&1/2, and searching gallop will suit.
California Flag: Won this as favourite last year after convincing all the way success in the Morvich Handicap, leading from start to finish all the way and followed up in same way in this event; Not as good at this trip though, and won a minor stakes race 2 starts back but ran a flat race last time and hard to know what to make of him.
Tropic Storm: Has only one win in four tries at this distance and even more worryingly the stewards awarded him the race; Has raced the first 3 in 5 graded stakes over longer trips, including a Grade 1; Has stamina to last off the front end but possibly lacking in pace.
Canadian Ballet: Attempting to beat males for the first time in long career but better mares than her in this field and only here because 7f of F&M Sprint is too long.
Yield Bogey: Looks outclassed.
VERDICT: A glut of front runners will make this a paradise for the late coming types, assuming they get gaps. 2 of the most likely to profit from this are CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE and Silver Timber, with preference for the former as he has looked unlucky not to beat the latter on more than one occasion this term.
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