Totesport.com Becher Handicap Chase 2010

1.45 Aintree
totesport.com Becher Handicap Chase (Listed) (National Course) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £56,330

Picks: Maljimar & Merigo (each/way)

Notre Pere: Was a top class staying chaser around 2 years ago, when he won the Welsh National in 2008 and the Gold Cup at Punchestown the following spring; Below par all of last season but mark has dropped to very workable one and shaped well over inadequate trip on reappearance.

Gullible Gordon: Was a useful hurdler and has been making more progress over fences of late, coming here on the back of a career-best effort when beating Ballyvesey with ease at Wincanton last month; This is harder and does need to take to the fences, so up against it although improving.

Maljimar: Has always threated to land a top handicap chase, coming closest in the 2009 William Hill Trophy when just ground down by Wichita Lineman in the last strides; Had relatively good season last year and was going well when falling at Becher’s second time round in the National; On same mark here and every chance.

Whatuthink: Good hurdler at his best, his best effort a World Hurdle third; Looked like he had a future at this level when third in the Irish National and good chances with 7lbs claimer on board if running to that level but this is tough race and possible jumping concerns.

One Cool Cookie: Has come no better than well ebaten fifth in past 5 runs and hard to see where he’s going to find the form from; Front running could light him back up though, as he is a prominently-ridden sort who is versatile in terms of trip and ground,

Meanus Dandy: Improved a lot for first time blinkers and fitness when landing the Badger Ales Trophy with improved attitude and good round of jumping; Major claims on that performance but he has never won on anything slower than good and he’s up 12lbs in a much better race.

Merigo: An excellent handicap chaser on his day, as he showed when winning the Scottish National by 9 lengths on his final starts last season; Major claims on that form and recent hurdles run should have sharpened him up, so every chance here.

I’moncloudnine: Has won 5 times over fences, the last of those coming off a 10bs lower mark; Is 12lbs better off with Meanus Dandy from their meeting last time, but that was for a 22 lengths beating and this is a stronger race in general.

Hello Bud: Has become a National specialist of late, winning three including the Scottish one in 20008/9, and then running a career best to come fifth in the Grand National last season; Has now dropped to a mark 7lbs lower, and rates the best handicapped on that evidence.

Irish Raptor: Has the form to win this on his best day, as he’s lower than when winning the Topham Chase but is 66U in this and doesn’t seem at the peak of his powers anymore.

Newman Des Plagues: Returned in fine heart when rallying back to record game victory at Carlisle, beating odds on shot by 5 lengths; 10lb rise for that seems just about fair but hard to know if he reproduces that effort; Better race today.

Midnight Gold: Has been in good heart this year, winning over 3m at Ffos Las in April and June and adding placed efforts Bangor and Ffos Las to that; Looked amiss when pulled up last time and in any case, ground may be too slow if back to best.

Minister Shadow: Has been running well of late (apart from Eclipse at Perth 2 starts back) and came back with a solid Carlisle second, although he’s 5lbs higher for that (only a 2 lengths defeat; modest race) and needs more having not won since landing a brace of novice chases in 2007/8.

Royal Rosa: Ran good races on all completed races last year, coming third in this race off a 5lbs higher mark; No wins since 2006 but has been running well of late and made pleasing reappearance here last time out, and should be fitter on a course he likes.

Pak Jack: Is a safe jumper and will get round (placed 4 times over these fences alone) and does come here 6lbs lower than when 5th in the Topham Chase, but weak finisher and stamina has to be a worry.

Ballyvesey: Lost little in defeat behind Gullible Gordon at Wincanton but well beaten in smaller event and tough task on ground slower than ideal, from out of the handicap.

Au Courant: Is miles lower in the handicap then when well beaten in Topham or promising third behind Big Fella Thanks and Pasco at Newbury, but has shown no encouragement in 3 runs since leaving Nicky Henderson's yard and stamina to prove.

VERDICT: A key National Trial which is usually won by an 8-10 year old with strong stamina & sure footed jumping. The horses who appeal most to me for the National at this stage are MERIGO and MALJIMAR, both classy horses who are sure footed jumpers and have excellent stamina. Merigo looked tailor made for this when romping home in the Scottish National, while Maljimar has always threated to land a huge pot in this sphere. Somehow Hello Bud is 7lbs lower than when running a bold fifth in the National last season, and he’s the best handicapped horse in the field on that basis, making him the alternative should either Merigo or Maljimar be dropped. Despite useful up and coming horses in the shape of Gullible Gordon and Meanus Dandy being around, the main threat is probably Notre Pere; He’s a class act and he won the 2008 Welsh National off 1lb higher than his current mark of 151, not to mention the fact that he will be well suited by forcing the pace and revels in soft ground.