Breeders' Cup 2010 - Mile

8.40 Churchill Downs
TVG Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) (Turf) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner $1,079,892 - 11 run

Picks: Goldikova (win), Proviso (each/way)

Beethoven: Grew with every run last year, eventually winning the Dewhurst and was unlucky when shafted in Breeder’s Cup at first turn; Has done well in face of very tough tasks this season and same thing set to happen again without him getting all that close.

Society’s Chairman: Has had 11 stakes starts (outside those restricted to Canadian breds) and only one once, in a weak Grade 3: Second behind Gio Ponti in Shadwell Turf Mile but winner hacked up on the bridle that day and no reversal likely here.

Gio Ponti: Got second win of relatively disappointing 2010 season (in comparison with last year, when he was second only to Zenyatta in this race at Sanita Anita) when cosy winner of Shadwell Turf Mile; That win however signals a return to form and will be massive threat to all here, so one of the big players.

Court Vision: Came a very solid fourth in this last year, and comes into from at this time of the season, as was showed by his win In Shadwell Turf Mile last year and he has repeated the trick in the Woodbine Mile this season; Has won four from seven off break of 6 weeks of more and clearly a decent shot here.

Delegator: Was a high-class performer last year, winning the Craven prior to finishing second in the 2000 Guineas and St James's Palace Stakes, winning the Celebration Mile, coming third in the QEII and respectable fifth in this; Not sure that his win in the Dubai Duty Free Cup on his return from injury last month and unlucky challenge Stakes fourth are all that better and up against it in strong field.

Paco Boy: Top class and well established miler who has embarrassed fields on occasions and looked just as good when landing Bet365 and Lockinge Stakes this season; Didn’t get the best of runs in the Queen Anne (too keen early, and Goldikova was clear before he got out) and while he was making serious ground before finish, he was never truly catching Goldikova; Unable to get out of ground in Jacuques Le Marois, and luckless again when he got no run in Prix Moulin; Just unable to catch Goldikova from car park draw but not sure that was crucial difference as winner would have liked better ground and was always in control; Very good chance anyway.

The Usual Q.T: Winner of 5 from 6 over 1 mile on turf and looked set for big season when winning Eddie Read Handicap, but ran flat against Richard’s Kid in the Goodwood Stakes and easily held by Court Vision last time; This harder.

Get Stormy: Yet another horse who loves a tight oval (won seven of last eight at tracks like this) but soundly beaten by Gio Ponti into fourth and not my idea of great outsider.

Sidney’s Candy: Thrust himself into picture for Kentucky Derby with dominating wins in the San Vicente, San Felipe, and Sanita Anita Derby; Unable to sustain fierce gallop in Kentucky Derby but has come back in pleasing style, failing to give 6lbs to Skipshot before sustaining a ridiculous pace last time out (1m8.9sec for the first 6f); Sure to get easy lead and one of main contenders on the basis.

Goldikova: Has had yet another record breaking season, stamping herself as best European race mare of the last 15 years with stunning wins in the Prix D’Isphan, Queen Anne, Rotschlid, and Foret (ground was way too soft for her against Makfi); Coffin box draw makes it more difficult but she overcame same obstacle in similarly messy race last year and must be the one to beat, even if this race is much better than last time.

Proviso: Has been transformed by switch to trainer/jockey combination off William Mott and Mike Smith, boasting 5 Grade 1 wins out of 7 US Starts, including 4 on the bounce (on a streak of 4 here);Tough, consistent and won’t bow under pressure, so must be given good look considering her form ties in closely with Goldikova.

VERDICT: A good renewal of the mile again, with a Supermare going for history (a common theme at this event), battling her close and ever – consistent rival, and the best male and female miler in the US have joined the party too. Despite all that’s been said, Sidney’s Candy will be near impossible to peg back as he’ll get a really easy lead, and given his fractions set in the La Jolla Handicap. Don’t be surprised if he wins. A shocking draw didn’t stop GOLDIKOVA in this last year, and that was off the back of a defeat in the Foret. It’s ominous that she won a stronger renewal last time, and even allowing for the fact this is a better race, she’s been as good as ever on all but one start, allowing for the fact that Makfi got the better of her on soft ground. Paco Boy and Gio Ponti aren’t likely to be far away but PROVISO was close to Goldikova in France and has improved for her new connections. Have an each/way saver on her.