Breeders' Cup 2010 - Turf

10.00 Churchill Downs
Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner $1,620,000 - 8 run

Pick: Bekhabad (win)

Champ Pegasus: Took full advantage of a ground-saving ride from Joel Rosario to win the Del Mar Handicap and arrived at top level when winning the Clement Hirsch Turf Championship last time out; Improving with every run but this looks like a real tough renewal to make his mark in and big task on.

Winchester: Has remained in good form for trainer Christophe Clement all season, winning twice and hitting the board three other times in six total starts; Just failed to give 3lbs and a beating to Al Khali in the Blowing Green Handicap, an effort that looks all the better considering that the latter named horse was unlucky not to win the Canadian International and that he backed it up with a win in the Turf Classic last time out, beating Paddy O’Prado; Arguably best US turf horse in training and accorded respect.

Telling: Produced career best when winning the Sword Dancer at 33-1 last year and best effort since is a repeat win in very; That was a renewal lacking in quality (same with last year’s) and good runs are few and far between based on past year’s record.

Debussy: Taken form to a new level this year with win in the Huxley Stakes, followed up by Arlington Million success over Gio Pont; Sensational ride by William Buick helped matters a lot (as did very strong pace);Ran a great prep when third in the Champion Stakes and value outsider for this.

Al Khali: Shaped like the best horse in the race but far when a dreadfully unlucky fourth in Canadian International last time, failing to get a run on the inside and travelling over the track for the last 2 furlongs; That was very eyecatching run buy opposition here miles better and while he’s a value overlay, will be finding it much harder here; Strong pace suits.

Workforce: Made highly promising start to career when 6-length winner of 7f maiden at Goodwood on only start, quickening through from rear; That showed immense promise but nothing like how impressive he would be when breaking track record to win Derby by seven lengths; Flopped ever so badly in King George but right back to best when winning Arc under fantastic training and riding performance from Stoute and Moore; For all that he’s best horse in the field, he has a tendency to run up really light (various reasons) and concerns must be had about fact both big race wins have come after break of 2 months, and he must have taken lot out of himself with win in the Arc win on heavy ground. – Non Runner.

Bhekabad: Has always been held in high regard by connections and showed immense promise when unbeaten in three races at two, finishing last year with a comfortable victory in the Group 3 Prix des Chenes at Longchamp; Has been steadily progressive this year, battling with close rival Planteur in winning Grand Prix De Paris and Prix Niel (key form trial, produced many winners of this); Improved on that and unlucky to come fourth in Arc (behind Workforce), as he was a close 8th when tightened up and had nowhere to go 2f out, before being switched inside and running on when short of room 1 1/2f out; Every chance here with clear run and won’t be found wanting for speed or stamina.

Dangerous Midge: Seemingly talented but erratic customer, (successful on 5 of 10 starts on racecourse) who looked horse with a major future when landing handicap easily on seasonal debut; Disappointed the next twice but one of most impressive handicap winners all year when dotting up in Old Newton Cup; Ebor didn’t suit but confirmed himself group class when romping home with Newbury Group 3; Not to be underestimated as he will love the strong pace although he still has a lot of improving to do.

VERDICT: A good renewal of the Turf as ever, with the Europeans seemingly holding the upper hand with Gio Ponti having gone to the mile and Paddy O’Prado to the Classic. Workforce will win if he repeats his Arc effort, but we have already been in this situation once where he bombed in the King George after romping home in the Derby. He had a month to recover from that, but he still bombed in the King George and he had to work even harder to win the Arc, all in heavy ground. He’s good enough but this will be the toughest test of his career. With a clear run, BEKHABAD would have gone very close in the Arc, and having not had a hard race to finish fourth, he has a very good chance of reversing form with Workforce. Dangerous Midge is trained by a master in Brian Meehan and shouldn’t be underestimated, although he still has a lot of improving to do.