Breeders' Cup 2010 - Juvenile

7.55 Churchill Downs
Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (C&G) (Grade 1) (Dirt) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner $1,079,892 - 10 run -

Pick: Boys At Tosconova (win)

Biondetti: Has been faultless in winning his three starts so far, showing endearing girt to scramble home in Premio Gran Criterium; Easy to crab the form but well worth remembering that stable had near exact contender in Vale Of York, who was second in the same race last year; Needs a realty strong pace to have a decent chance but not discounted and stable sent out Vale Of York to beat an imperious looking 2 year old in Lookin At Lucky last year.

Boys At Tosconova: Has made remarkable progress in only 3 runs, coming a tenderly handled second before romping home in maiden special weight; Really impressed with what he did in the Hopeful Stakes last time, running a time of 1m 23.27 under only a hand ride; Could have doubled/tripled his margin and major player here; Good enough to win most juveniles on that basis, although this is no ways race (more than 4 Grade 1 winners); Major player.

J.B’s Thunder: Has made a good impression in first 2 starts, taking a turf maiden in easy style from Santiva before a convincing success from the same rival in better style; Made all to win both races but big worry that he won’t handle the dirt or match very fast rivals for speed.

JP’S Gusto: Rose up through the California juvenile ranks when winning four major sprint races in a row, ending that streak with commanding victory in the Del Mar Futurity over Jaycito; Patently failed to stay when caught by that rival in the Norfolk Stakes; Will be forced to go even harder here and that is big worry.

Riveting Reason: Has done himself proud on last 2 runs, coming third behind Jaycito and JP’S Gusto in Grade 1 events the last twice; Worry is that he’s yet to run on dirt or win and has it tougher than ever here.

Stay Thirsty: Ran away with a maiden at Saratoga and then clocked an excellent time when second in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga: Fully deserves his chance here but the winner had a tremendous amount in hand and hard to recommend a reversal of form; Good runner for Pletcher Stable.

Uncle Mo: Has run twice and won twice, producing two of the most impressive juvenile displays of the year in winning his maiden by 15 lengths and winning the Champagne Stakes in near record time; Has forced pace on all starts (had to burn off longshot for the lead last time) and notable that he will have to deal with more yet more competition for the lead from better horses; Major player.

Murjan: Has raced and won three starts in Peru, and accorded respect on the fact that he’s raced and beaten 3 year olds in Peru, taking the 2,000 Guineas there when the runner up veered across the path; Not the worst outsider and of considerable interest; Hard to assess.

Rouge Romance: Big improver who’s taken big step forward with every single run, powering form last to first in Grade 3 on turf last time; Easy to dismiss but very shrewd trainer thinks he’s as good on dirt (backed up by pedigree); Another one with a chance but hard to really recommend.

Jaycito: Massively imposing colt who simply didn’t have enough track to use when storming home for second in the Del Mar Futurity (behind JP’S Gusto); Revered form with that rival in the Norfolk and player here if handling the dirt, and he’s bred to do so.

VERDICT: Hard to remember a better juvenile run for a long time, with every horse having it’s merits. Even with the best 2 juveniles this year in attendance, it would be foolish to assume that it’s a 2 horse race with 3 other Grade 1 winners in attendance. That said, it’ll be extremely hard to get Uncle Mo or BOYS AT TOSCONOVA beat, with the latter getting the vote as he’ll love the extra distance and may just have the tactical edge, with his main rival having good rivals for the lead. Jaycito had J P's Gusto and Riveting Reason behind when proving his stamina for this at Hollywood, and will go close if handling dirt (bred to) while Murjan has beaten the best 3 year old his country has to offer, so deserves respect on that score. Special mention is given to Biondetti who actually holds better form than Vale Of York, who beat the Champion 2 year old in this last year.