Hennessy Gold Cup Chase 2010

3.05 Newbury
Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £99,768

Pick: Pandorama (each/way)

Denman: Outstanding Gold Cup winner of 2008 who had heart trouble which has kept him to slightly below par performances since then; Put in one of the outstanding performances of modern times to win this last year off a mark of 174, producing outstanding jumping & front running display; Form has dipped below par since then which would give worries about an 8lbs higher mark but has had his excuses for that and this test should suit down to ground with rider that knows him on board (Sam Thomas); the one to beat.

Neptune Collonges: Has been rather underrated in presence of Denman and Kauto Star, having come third in Gold Cup behind Denman and excellent second behind Kauto 2 years ago when last seen; Has dropped to a mark 10lbs lower than when third in the Gold Cup and best handicapped in field f he runs to full form; Not out of the question given that Paul Nicholls produced opposing Taranis to win Cotswold Chase from 3 years off, and major player.

Taranis: Horse of immense quality, as he has won the Ryanair Chase and the James Nicholson Chase, both coming nearly 4 years ago, and was brilliantly produced to land Argento Chase from a 3 year layoff; Races off a mark of 160 for that but well up to that standard and should run another big race.

Madison Du Berlais: Was an absolute revelation 2 seasons ago when winning this very race (off a 12lbs higher mark the Levy Board Chase (beat Denman by 23 lengths ) and Totesport Bowl;Hasn’t been in the same form since due to a mark of 169 but ran creditably on all occasions since and warmed up for this with a good second at Exeter; Could be miles well in off 158 and light-weight set to suit.

Silver By Nature: Did nothing but improve last season and won Blue Square Gold Cup in tremendous fashion by 15 lengths; Was suited by absolute grind that day and this much tougher, so has it all to do.

Barbers Shop: Rapid improver and made huge strides on his way to fishing seventh in the Gold Cup 2 years ago; Although he wasn’t disgraced on that occasion, it did raise stamina doubts that were hardly put to bed when fourth in Hennessey; Ran well enough again when third in King George but his Ryanair run was disappointing (pulled up in Punchestown Gold Cup);Did nothing when seventh in Charlie Hall Chase and hard to fancy here.

Carruthers: Impressed with his easy front running victories as a novice, running creditably in RSA Chase when bad mistake put paid to his chances 3 out; Went on from that last season, coming fourth in Gold Cup and second in Totesport Bowl; Needed run badly at Ascot and while he will do better there, lot of competition on for the lead which will diminish his chances
The Tother One: The Tother One: Quickly made up into very smart chaser after a lay-off, coming arguably unlucky second in Badger Ales Trophy and behind The Packadge at Cheltenham; Ruined his chances by jumping badly a lot last season and while he made an excellent return last month, he was well weighted to do so and this is a lot tougher although 5lbs claimer Ryan Mahon will help him a lot.

Diamond Harry: Only beaten by Miakel D’Augenet as a novice hurdler, and slammed Burton Port giving him a stone in weight over brush hurdles; Quickly turned to chasing after coming solid third behind Big Bucks in Long Walk (rescheduled) and impressed majorly when winning on his debut, but made mistakes in scrappy win here, before error strewn round in the RSA Chase saw him pulled up; Easy to pick faults in jumping but he has only run over fences three times and the RSA likely came too soon for him; On very favourable mark and could take hand if jumping holds up.

Weird Al: Unbeaten over fences, having marked himself down a major RSA Chase candidate before injury with 2 impressive wins at Cheltenham before winning Towton Novice’s Chase; Came back from injury to dead heat with Little Josh in excellent run considering that he was running over a trip too short (2m4f) and was giving 6lbs to the Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Little Josh; Every chance here.

Burton Port: One of most progressive and probably underrated novice chasers last season winning 5 times (including the December, Reynoldstown and Mildmay Chases) and coming second in the RSA Chase; Was given a mark of 158 for his Reynoldstown Chase win so technically well treated off 152 but he will have to be very food to win off that mark.

Dream Alliance: One of fairy-tale stories of last season when winning the Welsh Grand National after long lay-off (had stem cell treatment); Unable to progress from that after rise in weight however, and this likely to be too good for him.

Big Fella Thanks: Having finish sixth in the race as a novice, was aimed steadily at the Grand National all last year, picking up the Greatwood Gold Cup as a bonus; Came fourth in the National itself with excellent run, after which he left Nicholls yard; Made pleasing return on debut for Ferdy Murphy when only just failing for fitness when passed late on by Hey Big Spender at Carlisle (had cruised to front rather easily, and 3 lengths clear); Should be mush fitter for this and this race should suit down to the ground.

Hey Big Spender: Was really going places last year and romped to wins here (over Fistral Beach) and Cheltenham on Trials Day; Didn’t quite go on from that after unseating in the Jewson (Fell behind Mad Max at Aintree), so really good effort to win at Carlisle on his return; Has the talent to do well this season but this might be a step too far.

Pandorama: Winner of 8 from 9 starts over rules, the only defeat coming to Ballymore properties winner Mikael D’Haugenet over hurdles; Unbeaten in three last season as a novice chaser, simply running away with the Drinmore Novice Chase; Made much harder work of landing the Knight Frank Novice Chase but jumped well in main and did very well to get up and beat RSA Chase winner Weapon’s Amnesty after mistake at last; Light weight will suit and should go well here, so one of major players.

Razor Royale: Always been there or thereabouts at this level and landed Racing Post Chase last season before good fourth in Scottish National; Better than result at Cheltenham last time out but 10lbs out of weights.

Hills Of Aran: Looked useful over fences (won both starts over fences in 2009/10, and looks to have retained most of his ability judged on last 2 hurdles runs but this not race for him.

VERDICT: As good a Hennessy as we’ve seen in recent years, with an established Gold Cup winner going for a historic third triumph up against 4 second season chasers of the highest class, and 2 established chasers with high class form. Everyone in racing will benefit if Denman wins for a third time and we’ll all be cheering him on, but 4/1 is a bit short given that he’s 8lbs higher than last year. Given that PANDORAMA beat the RSA Chase winner Weapon’s Amnesty I’m surprised he’s not shorter than Weird Al, Diamond Harry & Burton Port, despite their obvious ability. Weird Al ran an excellent race considering that he was running over a trip too short (2m4f) and was giving 6lbs to the Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Little Josh. He would have won if fit and rates a big threat. Diamond Harry has a brilliant record fresh and rates a major player. Burton Port isn’t flashy or hyped but he’s good enough to take this. One worry is that he hasn’t met Pandorama, Weird Al and was trashed by Diamond Harry getting a stone in weight. He’s improved since then but he meets Diamond Harry on bad terms here given that race. You have all that and then 2 high class older chasers in the shape of Taranis and Neptune Collonges, who are both feasibly weighted. Neptune Collonges is at least 8lbs well in if fit, but it’s hard to imagine him being straight enough despite Paul Nicholls having brought Taranis back from a similar lay – off. Hey Big Spender & Big Fella Thanks are 2 very promising horses to be followed but today’s test might be too much. An outsider that may have been ignored is Madsion Du Berlais, who will love running off a low weight, and gets in off his real mark.