Breeders' Cup 2010 - Classic

10.45 Churchill Downs
Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) (Dirt) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner $2,699,892 - 12 run -

Picks: Zenyatta (win), Blame (each/way)

Quality Road: Seen by many as star three year old in waiting when winning Fountain Of Youth Stakes and Florida Derby, breaking track record in the latter; Did nothing to dispel that belief when winning the Amsterdam Stakes and looked set for a big run in last year’s Classic before getting self-worked up at gates; Has fulfilled expectations to full this season with brilliant wins in Donn and Met Mile handicaps, winning 1 by 12 lengths and posting a 121 Beyter, the highest for a mile event since 2005; Efforts like those give him leading chance here but failed to give weight and a beating to Blame in Whitney Handicap, a worrying defeat conserving he lead over 9 furlongs and failed; Back on track in Woodward (won easily) but will have to go full pelt for 10 furlongs today and hold off world class horses.

Paddy O’ Prado: Ran a huge race in the Kentucky Derby to be third and that form automatically entitles him to be given a decent look; However wasn’t up to the Preakness and even though he’s been in good form on Turf since, suspicion is that if he’d have stayed 12 furlong, he would have gone for the Turf (second preference).

Haynesfield: Actually holds a very progressive profile (6 wins from 8 starts) and had a 4race winning streak broken by Blame; Amazingly managed to turn around an 11 length deficit when romping home in Jockey Club Gold Cup last time, but sedate early/middle fractions made race a non event and will have a lot tougher today on the front end, so has it all to do.

First Dude: Probably better than he showed when fifth in the Florida Derby and was only 1l behind Paddy O´Prado in the Blue Grass on synthetics; Continued improvement when setting a hot pace and still lasting out front in the Preakness, only to be beaten by Lookin At Lucky; Did his usual thing again when leading until last 110yds in Belmont and grabbed third on line in Haskell Valiant third in Haskell but looked as if he’d had one race too many when second in the Pennsylvania Derby (lost to a Stakes debutant).

Blame: Had won his last 5 on the bounce before his eclipse when well beaten second behind front runner Haynesfield in the Jockey Club Gold Cup; That disappointing but unsuited by sedate pace that day (allowed Haynesfield to dominate) buy much better judged on superb effort s earlier on, especially when beating Quality Road in the Whitney; Will love the strong pace set and major player.

Fly Down: Although he flopped badly on first graded start he has improved a ton since, trashing Belmont winner Drosselmeyer, making him look unlucky to get beat given his ride that day; Disappointed in Jim Dandy but given lot of ground to make up, snatched up on rail late on; Showed his best side when second in Travers, but swiped aside when third in Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Musket Man: Ever consistent horse who has an impeccable consistency, having been in the money every single time he’s run; Railed gamely but still disappointing that he couldn’t win the Monmouth Cup last time; Efforts like that make him outsider but efforts like his second to Quality Road and third behind Quality Road and Blame make him a value bet; Percentage call is to leave him with the field looking this deep.

Zenyatta: Goes for this race looking for History, having kept a 19 – 19 streak going since her incredible win in last year’s renewal with stylish wins in the Santa Margarita Invitational, Apple Blossom Invitational, Vanity Handicap, Clemet L Hirsch Stakes and Lady’s Secret Stakes (same race she prepped in last year); Reptedly training just as well (if not better0 than last year and holds every chance for making history with a strong pace to aim at; Toughest task yet but the one to beat.

Pleasant Prince: Fairly romped home in the Oklahoma Derby last time out but has consistently proved cut below top 3 year olds this season; Tough runner but this probably asking too much of him.

Etched: Very lightly raced for a 5 year old, having won 7 of 9 starts from 2007; Probable career best when he held off the closing charge of odds-on favourite Musket Man to win the Monmouth Cup for second year in a row; Still on the upgrade but this may be rise that’s way too big for him.


Espoir City: Japan’s top dirt horse, who prepped for this with a second in the Mile Championship Nambu Hai in Japan (a race he won last year); Was on a 6 race winning streak beforehand, which included a win in the Japan Cup; Has handy running style, good form and quality attitude but trip may be his undoing in such a hot race.

Lookin At Lucky: Super talented horse as has been shown by his 4-5 record as a 2 year old but met with trouble on four of his next 5 starts since, notably when sent off favourite for the Kentucky Derby, only to lose his chance when squeezed up against the rail, having started from unfavourable inside stall; Showed what a class horse he is when cards fall right in Preakness & Haskell, both runs that would give him a major chance here; Injured after that but ran great comeback effort at Hooiser Park and big run coming here.

VERDICT: One of the best renewals of the classic in modern times with a supermare attempting to go 20-20, A tough, consistent, horse in America’s top 3 year old, and three top quality older horses, one who has won four from his last 5, and the other having posted a 125 Beyer in one of his 4 wins this season. This will be the toughest test that ZENYATTA has ever faced but it was the same last year and she swept aside the whole field to become the first filly to win this race. She will have one of the strongest paces all year to run at and she seems to be training better than ever. She also can handle dirt. I can find nothing wrong with Lookin At Lucky, a tough high class 3 year who’s very flexible regarding running styles and will have been trained to the minute by Maestro Bob Baffert. Haynesfield posted a great effort when he romped home in the Jockey Club Gold Cup but soft fractions helped at the start and the middle of the race and I’d fully expect Blame to overturn form. In any case, he will have to go head to head with the beast that is Quality Road for the lead, and while I expect Quality Road to run huge, his failure to stay will prove his undoing. Don’t forget about quality horses like Musket Man or Gio Ponti as value overlays or place shots, if you can’t decide on a winner. The place pick is BLAME.