Breeders' Cup 2010 - Sprint

6.30 Churchill Downs
Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1) (Dirt) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner $1,079,892 - 12 run

Picks: Big Drama, Cash Refund, Wise Dan (all each/way)

Big Drama: Has been second in his last 2 races but no shame at all in losing out to Here Comes Ben in the Forgo (strongly run seven furlongs) or Majestic Perfection in the Alfred G.Vanderbilt Handicap; Major chance here and had hacked up on previous 2 starts, so the one to beat.

Girolamo: Clear – cut winner of Vosbrough Stakes and ran the fastest race of his career in doing so, a race so taking that he had to wait 12 days for a workout (and even then, a small one over 3 furlongs); No doubting his class and good enough to make big impact but well behind Big Drama in Forego and needs much much more.

Wise Dan: Lost debut but taking giant strides with every start, recovering from rough trip to get up in cosy style last time (Phoenix Stakes) and more to come seeing as he rung badly right; Could well be good enough to take another significant step forward, and not underestimated.

Hamazing Destiny: Has lost all seven on the stakes races he’s ever run in, running unplaced in all four that held Graded status; Hard to recommend even though he likes the course and distance here.

Smiling Tiger: Very impressive when getting better of strong pair in EZ’S Gentleman and Supreme Summit in Ancient Title Stakes last time out; Has never raced on dirt but been working like he’ll take to it, and not to be dismissed.

Pashito The Che: Won or was beaten half a lengths in less of in 13 of his last 14 starts since joining Scott Lake; Yet to run at graded level but clock says she has a big shot here, if you can his time by the book.

Kinsale King: Has been transformed by switch to Carl O’Callaghan Stable, winning 4 out of 6 starts (all off a 5 week break or longer); Ran third in the Golden Jubilee on his sole defeat and not worth looking into July Cup; Has a shot here if OK to run on dirt.

Cash Refund: Has looked set for big things winning his first 5 starts over 6 furlongs, best of which was a 7 lengths romp over this course and distance; Had training issues which saw him run below form in his next two; That makes him serious horse considering that he was only 11 lengths (giving 4lbs) behind Majesticperfection and only beaten four lengths behind reopposing Riley Tucker (again, giving away 4lbs in weight); Back on level terms with Jon Velasquez on board, and looking like he’s back to his best on work times, one to fear at big price.

Supreme Summit: Has some good form to his name but been well beaten by Kinsale King and Smiling Tiger last time; Closer to the forefront than many would think here as he’s entitled to just turn around form with Smiling Tiger but has been unplaced on both dirt runs.

Riley Tucker: Looks only useful on the form but has posted a 3 digit Beyer this year when beating a couple of today’s rivals over course and distance ; Been primed specifically just for this and had an easier race than winner Girolamo in the Vosbrugh last time; Not to be discounted as likely to peak today.

Atta Boy Roy: Record is one of sheer consistency and nothing else (has won 10 of 16 dirt sprints and run second of 5 of his losses); Well in based on his 2 length loss to Riley Tucker (gave 6lbs) and 4 lengths second to Majesticperfection) (giving an eyewatering 7lbs); Should be lumped in but has always needed an contested lead and simply won’t get it; In running proposition if he’s got soft pace but unlikely.

Warrior’s Reward: Nearly unbeatable when fresh (has won four from 6 on dirt after breaks of 6 weeks or more over a mile or less); Has lost all 9 times he’s been asked to return quicker and same case here.

VERDICT: An open renewal of the sprint which isn’t lacking in good/fast/progressive/solid horses, although it would have been great to see Majesticperfection and/or Directly Mine take their chance. As this is only the second race on the card and stronger chance will come, I’m going for small stakes each/way on the three selections. It’s going for the obvious but BIG DRAMA should take a lot of beating in their absence and is closer to Majesticperfection than the form suggests. CASH REFUND was set for stardom until injury intervened; He can go close off a break while WISE DAN is worth a chance even though older horses are favoured.