Breeders' Cup 2010 - Dirt Mile

9.20 Churchill Downs
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner $539,946 - 12 run

Picks: Here Comes Ben (win) , Hurricane Ike and Thiskyhasnolimit (each/way)

Dakota Phone: Benefitted from patient ride when gaining hard fought success in San Diego Handicap; Has since run well in Pacific Classic and Goodwood Stakes (third both times) but hard to see him going two places better, as he didn’t look unlucky on either occasion; Has a record that says I don’t like dirt.

Tizway: Really suffered badly late on for chasing a scorching early pace in the Japan Cup Dirt (over 1m1f) but has put in great efforts since, dotting up in Aqueduct Claimer, finding only Musket Man and Quality Road too good in Metropolitan and romping home in Grade 2 Kelso by 5 lengths from Cool Coal Man (reopposes); All five of his wins have been off 6 weeks plus, and coming off a break that’s shorter (as he does here), he’s lost all 5.

Aikneite: Won well on debut before getting well beaten on his first Grade 1 start in the Three Chimneys (Ran with credit) behind Dublin; Held in several runs in Graded company since and yet to show he´s really good enough for a race like this.

Mad Flatter: Won the Spend A Buck handicap last time with suprising ease after sitting from the front early (broke very well) and leading all the way; Concern is that this race is stronger, he will face more competition for the lead, he was getting 6lbs from the odds on fav last time, and every tie he hasn’t lead early he hasn’t won.

Aikneite: Won well on debut before getting well beaten on his first Grade 1 start in the Three Chimneys (Ran with credit) behind Dublin; Held in seven runs in Graded company since and yet to show he´s really good enough for a race like this.

Here Comes Ben: Has come from relative obscurity to being one of the favourites for this, landing the Forego Stakes in devastating style last time out, beating high class field (Vineyard Haven and Big Drama behind) with a storming late run; Speed and stamina no problem but has only won one from seven in fields bigger than five (admittedly that win was in Grade 1 Forego); Massive chance if staying and handling field here, because Churchill Downs hold no fears for him.

Gayego: Should have won the Sprint here last year, but for being shoved and trapped up the inside rail; Hasn’t been overly impressive with his runs since, ending up well beaten in Golden Shaeen (Dubai) Triple Bend Handicap, & Alfred G Vanderbilt Handicap; Won easily in good prep race last tie and should go well (second in the equivalent race on dirt at Nad Al Sheba last year), but can be taken on.

Thiskyhasnolimit: Will love this trip, (has won all four times he’s run from 6f to 1m on tracks that are up to 1m round, like Churchill Downs) and comes out very favourably if his second to Lookin At Lucky can be read literally; Unwise to do so, but worse each/way bets to be had in very open race and comes here from right stable to be winning.

Crown Of Thorns: Amazingly versatile horse who has only run twice since coming a close second in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint; Made pleasing return in Pat O’Brien Stakes (would have won for lack of fitness; Given lot to do) and rallied hard behind Richard’s Kid in the Goodwood Stakes; Is switching to dirt for the first time, and that’s a huge worry; Will go close if adapting although he hasn’t won since February 2008.

Hurricane Ike: Only win from 9 starts since maiden win is a confortable beating of Aikenite over course and distance (sloppy track) in the Cliff’s Edge Derby Trial; Has run two excellent races since considering he aggravated leg injury that day and odds of 25/1 with Churchill Downs specialist Calvin Borel look big.


Morning Line: First reserve but would have to be accorded respect as likely runner (this first preference over Dirt Mile) having beaten First Dude on Stakes debut which is a good solid line of form; Latter named horse may have been over the top but he looks seriously progressive and is given respect, despite needing to improve again.

Mine That Bird: Has fallen a long way since his Kentucky Derby win, even allowing for the fact he chased the Triple Crown very hard and has been given some very though tasks since; Hasn’t won for his new trainer yet but 2 of those were near impossible tasks (Whitney and Woodward) ; Wouldn’t be worst shock in BC History but it does seem unlikely.

Vineyard Haven: Consistent and classy “sprinter of sorts” (won 5 out of 10 lifetime starts , and four Grade 1 wins in them);Has suffered two worrying defeats though, one when he fell to pieces after setting easy fractions in Cigar Mile (last year) and also in Forego Stakes, when well beaten by Here Comes Ben; Has it all on from stall 12.

Cool Coal Man: Seems like a solid but unspectacular horse but this is much tougher than the Grade 2 Kelso Stakes and needs a small field to be seen at his best (form in figures blow graded class with less than 8 are 21111111122);Blanked in 15 other tries at all conditions.

VERDICT: The best renewal of the Dirt Mile yet, which is no surprise as it’s being run on proper dirt for the second time (had a 2 year hiatus at Sanita Anita and Monmouth was sloppy on the opening year). It’s a wide open race, with Crown Of Thorns, Tizway, Gayego, Morning Line, Vineyard Haven and HERE COMES BEN holding big chances. The latter is given the pick as he beat the best field by far of these when landing the Forgo last time, but there’s always a vulnerability with the favourite for such an open race and there are 2 very good each/way chances in the shape of THISKYHASNOLIMIT and HURRRICANE IKE, who have run some good races this year.