Saturday, 2 November 2013

Breeders' Cup 2013 - Turf

10.22 Santa Anita
 Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)
Winner $1,144,200

Advice: 2 pts win The Fugue (2/1 888Sport), 1 point win Point of Entry (6/1 Coral, Ladbrokes)

Vagabond Shoes: Has improved a lot stepping up to middle distances over here(ex-French) second to Indy Point in a Grade 2 latest on 4lbs worse terms (over 10f, this course), but this demands yet more of him against prime turf horses in the Nation and don’t think that will be enough.


Teaks North: Only eighth when this was run at Churchill Downs in 2011 and behind Indy Point and Vagabond Shoes latest; Hard to see him getting too involved.


Twlight Eclipse: Getting 4lbs from Big Blue Kitten when he was second in Sword Dancer Invitational, and no answer to Little Mike and Real Solution as well latest when in fifth; Hard to make a case for him based on that.


Little Mike: Shock winner of this last year when some would argue that he was lucky that Point of Entry didn’t get his run until he did; Looked as if that was a fluke afterwards in two runs at Metydan but better returned to US and game as a pebble to hold off Big Blue Kitten in deep stretch at Belmont latest (again runner up got trouble); That said, nature of this course suits few better and likely to get the uncontested lead out in front that he wants.


Skyring: Since been put in his place behind Blig Blue Kitten after he got better of Wilcox Inn in 1m1f Grade 2 at Pimlico.


Tale of a Champion: No show latest when bidding to follow up his Hollywood Park win and not sure that he’s upto this.

The Fugue: One of the unluckiest losers of the meeting last year when caught in a pocket behind Zagora and unable to escape in the Filly and Mare Turf; Since improved, left with too much to do in Prince of Wales’s, sick horse in Eclipse, and then much the best in Yorkshire Oaks and Irish Champion Stakes when sharp turn of foot took her to victory; Convinced she’s the best here but key is getting the gaps to show in in what is always a slowly run race around here, although William Buick has 12 furlongs to get a position and stall 7 is a nice one.

Point of Entry: The undisputed top 12 furlong performer in US, with 5 Grade 1 successes to his name, and may well have won last yea’s renewal had he not been snatched up on the rail early on last year (catching Little Mike with every stride although always too late); Worry that his cannon-bone fracture has held him up but recent workouts say that he’s ready and has to be a big player this time around.


Indy Point: Triple Crown winner in Argentina before second in Carlos Pellegrini (the Argentinean Arc); One of few with successes abroad (had disappointed badly as favourite in Arlington Million before Grade 2 here latest) but this asked a whole lot more of him for all that he’s respected.


Big Blue Kitten: One of America’s top turf horses this year, having won United Nations Stakes at Monmouth (Teaks North second) and then Grade 1 Sword Dancer with sweeping late runs before unlucky second to Little Mike (should have won) at Belmont; Can go well again here for all that lack of pace not to his benefit.

Magician: Easy to forgive his no show in St James’s Palace (never right beforehand) and didn’t look as if 12 furlongs would be a problem when romping away with Dee Stakes at Chester before his Irish 2,000 Guineas win (also comprehensive); Worry that he’s not been seen since however.

Real Solution: Ex Italian who was behind Point of Entry in Belmont Grade 1 before being awarded Arlington Million; Close up behind Little Mike and Big Blue Kitten latest when he looked the winner for a few strides but was passed late and while respected for these connections, others make more appeal.



VERDICT: The same conditions that conspired to beat THE FUGUE in the Filly and Mare Turf last year are a threat but John Gosden’s filly has been even better since and can make amends with a great post draw that should allow William Buick to get a good run and The Fugue to make amends for last year. The home team is a strong one though, and I couldn’t not save on POINT OF ENTRY, who was unlucky not to beat Little Mike last year and if fully fit following a long absence, will take the beating.

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