There can’t be many tams having a worse year or preparation
for the 2015 World Cup than Australia but they can give themselves some respite
from a year of total failure with a win against Italy in Turin.
Last year the Wallabies came on a high, having just turned
over hotly fancied England with a bare bones squad before going onto win the
rest of their tour games including this one after going 22-6 in the first half
before a collapse after the break which saw them close to within three points
at the final whistle in a game that could have seen Italy beat Australia for
the first time in their history.
This time around however, circumstances have changed rather
dramatically. Italy’s fourth in the 6 Nations this year was their best ever
finish and showed the benefits of years in the competition – along with the
Heineken Cup - and the patient work of Jacques Brunel and his side since taking
over.
Australia meanwhile, haven’t been able to buy a win in 2013.
Robbie Deans’ finally left his shaky position as head coach after their final
test trashing at the hands of the Lions after what had been a close series, but
Ewan Mckenzie’s new era simply hasn’t materialized terms of results. Three
defeats against the All Blacks were to be expected, but their thrashings to
South Africa – notably the 38-12 romp at the Suncorp stadium where they’d
pushed the Lions so close in the summer – were disconcertingly one sided and
they scraped past Argentina on home soil before going to South Africa for the
return fixture. While Mckenzie’s tried his level best to implement the
attacking style that led his Reds side to the 2011 Super Rugby title –
something that worked to perfection when Australia trashed Argentina 54-17 and
then scored 33 points against New Zealand in the third Bliesdoe Cup encounter –
the failings of the pack, Australia’s Achilles heel, have not been addressed
and they look worryingly underpowered in all areas of the forward game. Will
Genia was sensational at times during the Lions series in the summer but has
been suffering behind his retreating pack and was marginalized by a suffocating
fringe defence and lack of time and quality ball last week.
Italy’s pack has always been their strong point and now
looks better than ever after 13 years in the 6 Nations, and Australia’s
performance against England, where they had much the better of the first half
in ball playing terms and went in with a sizeable lead, was extremely worrying
in that regard as yet another second half collapse (they’ve been outscored
after the break in 8 of their 13 tests this year) saw them go down limply with
a catalogue of errors -20 missed tackles, 12 penalties, two free-kicks and 17
turnovers were conceded last week in London.
It’s tempting to recommend Italy with a start of 10 points
on the handicap but their win against Ireland on the final day of the 6 Nations
came against a decimated side reeling from their worst championship of recent
memory and also to remember that England’s second and winning try from Owen
Farell had a good case for being called for obstruction – and Mike Brown’s
catch for the counterattack that kick-started the counterattack for the first
try (an opportunistic finish from Chris Robshaw after a chargedown) was out of
bounds. Mckenzie’s men took advantage of their cohesion – having been on the go
since the Lions tour in the summer – to take a large lead over England, just
like they did in the summer. A half time handicap of 5 is tempting, possibly
moreso than the 10 point overall handicap given the Wallabies’ second half
weaknesses and their strong start last week.
Advice
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