Breeders' Cup 2013 - Classic

Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) (Dirt) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner $2,860,500 - 11 run

Advice: 1 pt win Mucho Macho Man (4/1 general), Will Take Charge (12/1 general), Palace Malice (10/1 general)

Last Gunfighter: Won seven of nine since being moved to Chad Brown by no Grade 1 successes for him in that time and flat behind Flat Out, Ron The Greek and Palace Malaice in the Jockey Club, his first try at this trip; Easy to look elsewhere.

Paynter: Looked a serious horse when running out an easy winner of the Haskell Stakes (has been a Belmont Stakes winner time before that) but brushes with deather through severe colic and laminitis blighted him; Credit that Bob Baffert has him back at all but Grade 2 second to Mucho Macho Man was a top effort can can do better still (carried wide 2 furlongs out) and interesting for all that Mucho Macho Man looked to have his number.

 

Planetur: Has got plenty of polytack form but never ran on dirt and no breeding suggests it would suit; Shocker at Longchamp last time after Group 3 success at Windsor and while he’s a useful horse, looks overmatched before even taking on the surface.

Moreno: Very smart 3yo, wide margin winner of  Dwyer Stakes before third to Palace Malice in July at Saratoga; Closely matched with Will Take Charge on two recent runs in Travers (set favoured pace for himself) although margin much more comprehensive at Parx latest.

Declaration of War: Bred for dirt (by War Front and dam a triple dirt winner) and broke maiden going 9 furlongs on sand surface at Deauville for jean Claude Rouget; Has fulfilled full potential for Ballydoyle this season, winning Queen Anne Stakes but improving with every start since, culminating with hardfought, game, Juddmonte Stakes win; If takes to surface, no reason that he can’t put up a massive showing.

Mucho Macho Man: Fort Larned slipped clear on the final turn and stayed clear by half a length in last year’s classic, and then posted some rather lacklustre efforts (ran below best every time since) until romp over 9 furlongs around this very course with Paynter well beaten in second; With more front end speed likely here closing could be even better and has to be considered and given a big chance of turning around the form.

Fort Larned: Broke best, got to the lead, kicked clear when others napping around the turn and never caught in last year’s Classic, with only Mucho Macho Man able to come close; Been very on and off since then, destroying field in Stepehen Foster before disappointing at Saratoga; Theory that he’s best backing up his runs so win at Churchill should have put him spot on for this and must be considered for all that it’s unlikely that he gets a generous

Palace Malice: Has taken his time to get to peak form but a convincing and clear cut winner of Belmont Stakes, a performance that he backed up with Jim Dandy win before his desperate Travers Stakes trip (wins with clear run); Wide draw did him no favours behind absent Ron the Greek when he was thrashed in Jockey Club Gold Cup and not out of question he can go well here with plenty looking for the lead.

Game On Dude: Was a hot favourite for this last year (2^nd in 2011) after string of successes last year, but broke badly, could never dominate and flat seventh beaten out of sight; Unbeaten this calendar year and if breaking and getting to the lead has to be given a chance but feeling that he’s been beating up on poor fields and vulnerable here.

Flat Out: Fifth in this at Churchill Downs (2011) and third last year when best of the rest behind Mucho Macho Man and Fort Larned; Once again saved his best for Belmont when comprehensive winner of the Suburbian Handicap, although well behind Palace Malaice at Belmont last time and needs far more here.

VERDICT: Game on Dude is a hot favourite for the second year running but he’s proven little since last year’s defeat despite his easy wins and he seems best when able to lead at the rail – something that won’t happen from stall 9. A hot pace wouldn’t be to the benefit of last year’s winner Fort Larned but it should prove perfect for MUCHO MACHO MAN, who loves it around here and has peaked based on his latest run when smashing Paynter in a Grade 1 here on his prep run. A fast pace should also be to the benefit of thee year olds PALACE MALICE and WILL TAKE CHARGE, and they to can get involved with the shakeup.