The Ashes 2013/14: Finding the winner

It is often said that familiarity breeds contempt and a rare case of two Ashes series in a year sees England and Australia bash heads again starting at midnight tonight, with a nail-biting series expected between the two old rivals.

Photograph: Tom Jenkins for The Guardian

There was a hostile air, before, during, and after the series in England in the summer and the time between has been marked with the usual barrage of hostilities from the Aussies to their visitors, with criticism ranging from unsportsmanlike behavior (see Stuart Broad’s refusal to walk in the very first test) to a ‘boring’ style of play, with Michael Clarke, Shane Warne and a whole host of figures to come out and criticize Alastair Cook’s style of play for being ‘negative’, and in the recent run-up to tonight’s opening session, both Kevin Pietersen and Stuart Broad have been fighting the Aussie press on twitter. How times change.

The narrative going into this series seems to be that this will be a hotly contested, extremely tight series with much resting on the result of the first test – a far cry from the confident predictions of England successes by wide margins before the start of the summer from both hemispheres.

England went onto win 3-0, sealing the deal before the final test at the Oval which went down to the final overs before the controversial call for bad light ended a thriller, but that doesn’t come close to telling to the story of the series. Of their three successes, only one – the second test at Lord’s – was one that could be called confidently before the final day (England were no bigger than 1-7 to win the match two days out) with all four of the other tests 50/50 at one stage.

Given that three of them went right down to the last session, one could say that the 3-0 score flattered England and that Australia can feel confident about turning around the result on home turf. Michael Clarke’s men lost two final day shootouts and should have hacked up in Durham but for persistent rain, an assessment the markets clearly agree with given Australia’s best price of just 17-10 and Coral’s 6/5 for yet another English success – to put that into perspective, Alistair Cook’s men were 2/5 to land the series before the first test last summer.

10 of the side that started the final test at the Oval will lineup here, Australia are without James Pattinson, Jackson Bird and Mitchell Starc in their last bowling ranks. While Ryan Harris, Peter Siddle and Mitchell Johnson are all capable of causing England plenty of trouble on their day, Harris is a constant injury risk (he’s played only 16 tests in three and a half years), Siddle’s red hot intensity in the last two series has been seen mostly in the first tests on either occasion, and Johnson has the potential to be a total liability as much as he can be a match-changer (and we have seen both in one series before despite an impressive home record). Nathan Lyon is a solid spin option who has improved but had little impact in terms of the last two series and he looks to be well behind England’s Graeme Swann.

Photograph: Tom Jenkins for The Guardian

England’s remarkably versatile James Anderson – able to swing the ball both ways, be a new ball threat, and tear down the best of left handers - took 22 wickets in the summer and still seems to be improving at the age of 31 despite having the look of a tired and below par player for much of the summer, Stuart Broad’s hot spells are capable of changing the situation at any time (like the 6-50 that handed England the series victory), and Graeme Swann is arguably the world’s best test spinner who took more wickets that anyone in England last time out, and with 15 wickets on his last visit, looks capable of turning at least one test – much like when he sealed the deal for England’s innings win in Adelaide in 2010 with a brilliant 6-50.

Photograph: Tom Jenkins for The Guardian

England managed to pass 350 only four times in the summer but played below their best for much of the summer and will have no fear facing the fast bouncy pitches that they’re so accustomed. Alistair Cook was one of many that had a dire summer, averaging below 30 over the 5 tests along with a number of his colleagues, but in their middle order (with Broad also capable of strong innings with the bat), has far more strength in depth than Australia evidence by the fact that only Michael Clarke has a higher average than the English top 6 apart from Michael Carberry. Ian Bell’s magnificent form in the summer – scoring three of the nine centuries in the series and being the only man to score more than one century looks to be been continued with two centuries in the warmup games, a better preparation than most of England’s other batsmen.

Australia’s battling lineup looks more settled now following a decent one day series but they were bowled out for under 300 6 times in the summer and are likely to be vulnerable to the moving ball early and later in the innings that so exposed their technical deficiencies in spades when they collapsed on numerous occasions.

However for all that the Australians have reason for optimism, there’s as much reason for concern and predictions of an English demise or total turnaround on all evidence look foolhardy. Australia let slip of first innings leads in the last three tests, only twice posted innings totals higher than England in the series (and one of them was in the final test which was a dead rubber), and have won just one of their last 10 tests against an England side that has not lost in 13 games since South Africa’s win at Lord’s in 2012.

Home advantage has obviously been factored into the equation for many but the spine of this side – Alistair Cook, Johnathan Trott, Kevin Pietersen, Ian Bell, Matter Prior, Graeme Swann, and James Anderson – were instrumental in dominating Australia on their own patch in the winter of 2010, winning three times by an innings and while the margin of success might not be that clear cut, England are the clear choice for a fourth successive series success. We are already well positioned after backing England to win both series at 7/4 but another bet on England was easily the most appealing option and we’ll supplement our ante post with another bet on Cook’s men. Australia haven’t lost a home test in the Ashes since 1892, so a couple of correct score punts, namely 2 and 3-1, make appeal.

Advice

5 pts England (5/6 Paddy Power)

1 pt 3-1 England (15/2 Bet365, Paddypower)

1 pt 2-1 England (9/1 Hills)

Already Advised

5 pts England to win both series (7/4 Hills, 15/8 Coral, 10 July)