Melboune Cup 2013

4.00 Flemington

EMIRATES MELBOURNE CUP (Group 1 Handicap) (3yo+) (Turf) (3yo+)

• Winner: £2,435,897

Advice: 2 pts each/way Dandino (10/1 general), 1 pt each/way Dear Demi (20/1 general) 

Dunaden: Much fancied to retain his title last year after career best when winning Caulfield Cup but found the stop start tempo and weight too much for him when disappointing 14^th; Since been as good as ever in Europe, bar poor showing in Prix Foy last time; Not impossible to envisage but others make more appeal and exposed feel to him.

Green Moon: Had the perfect trip last year when slotting in behind the leaders before kicking clear in last furlongs to win hot renewal that was run at very muddling pace; Nothing wrong with four of his starts after that and Cox Plate effort eye-catching given his horror trip so can go very well again for all things unlikely to drop his way so perfectly.

Red Cadeux: One of incredibly strong 5 hand for Robert Hickmott; Inches separated him from taking this in 2011 and another who wasn’t suited by run of race last year (eighth); Top international travel who can be expected to give his best once again but stall 23 is just about the worst of them all and little room for manoeuvre with others promising to improve more.

Sea Moon: Huge reputation after coming down from Sir Michael Stoute but desperately poor first three starts; However, starting to show his best for Robert Hickmott, first past the post and demoted in the Bart Cummings Stakes before winning Herbert Power Stakes latest; Hard not to be a little tempted.

Brown Panther: Race has been on the mind of notable connections since return to best form this season, especially after dominant Goodwood Cup when one of three to break clear before running other two into ground; Connections rather forced into going down to 10 furlongs for prep he was never going to win (possibly conditioning for tactical speed); Should relish trip here and kind draw allows for front running as potential option, so not dismissed.

Fiorente: Was a very decent horse for Sir Michael Stoute (Group 2 winner) and ran a screamer on first start for Gai Waterhouse when second in this last year; outsprinted by Green Moon but comfortably best of the rest; has since been plying trade at top level here, winner of Group  2 going a mile at Moonee Valley with scoring late run before running screamers in Turnbull Stakes and then Cox Plate where only draws and distance beat him; Worthy favourite.

Foreteller: Group 1 winner at a mile and 10 furlongs this year, also best of the rest behind Atlantic Jewel and staying on very well for fourth in Cox Plate, although held up so always charging late; Feel he has something to prove over this trip.

Dandino: Turned into fine globetrotter but really reached new levels upped in trip this year, winning American St Ledger in easy style before barnstorming run in the Caulfield Cup, caught wide before coming from 14^th to second in final furlong (just failed to catch Fawkner, but would have done with clear run and better off); Fast ground come right for him (only once out of 1^st 2 on fast ground in 12 runs); Major player.

Ethiopia: Won 2012 Australian Derby and kept to that level but nowhere in this last year and gone backwards since, so hard to enthuse about his efforts.

Fawkner: Another for Williams/Hickman team and one of strongest shots; Wasn’t stopping at the end of Caulfield Cup (had most of his previous form upto a mile), although much owed to perfect ride that Nicolas Hall gave him (times challenge so no-one could get to him), including very unlucky Dandino; Must be respected here and likely that the trip wouldn’t be a problem although second makes more appeal and things went right for him there.

Mourayan: Seventh last year off a 2lbs lower mark and landed Sydney Cup afterwards but exposed since and others make much more appeal.

Seville: When blinkers seemed to have a positive effect, landed the Met Handicap before midfield finish in Cox Plate; Foolish to assume that this at all beyond him and while some are easier to fancy, upped to 2 miles, likely to see the best of him.

Super Cool: got there with yards to go in the Australian Cup back in Marc and not let himself down since, notably in this context when behind Fiorente and Foretller before Cox Plate fifth;

Masked Marvel:No wins since his crushing romp in the 2011 St Leger (Brown Panther, Sea Moon, and Seville all behind); Much changed since then and failed to find that spark in England, although Craven Plate second hinted at best to come (had been good beforehand); Limp in Cox Plate but this trip will see his best foot put forward hopefully and not without a shot although slight worry about tempo.

Mount Athos: Prepared for this all season and twice an impressive winner over middle distances in UK but slow to get away, bumped around and never had enough time to make up ground off stop start gallop despite being in horrendously placed; Since taken similar route, a little disappointing when favourite in summer but aiming squarely for this and well weighted; That said, stall 22 nightmare draw and Craig Williams has huge task getting him in position.

Royal Empire: Record when fresh and record on a sound surface are both reasons to think he can go well, while form in UK steadily suggests he has far more to give despite not having started outside of Group 3 level; Add in a mid pack draw and cards starting to fall into place for Godolphin’s contender.

Voleuse De Coeurs: This contest had been mentioned for her long term but Irish St Leger romp under Dermot Weld saw her sold to Australian connections who nominated this as target; Form back home stacks up perfectly and 2-2 over this distance; What’s less compelling is draw of 21 offering little tactical versatility and slower temp than she’s used to.

Hawkspur: A clear cut and exciting winner of the Queensland Derby in June and desperately unlucky not to add Turnbull Stakes to resume before Caufield Cup seventh, where he didn’t have many excuses for poor seventh; Hard to fancy.

Simenon: Crack stayer who has progressed from handicaps (did Ascot Stakes-Queen Alexandra Stakes double) to group horse who was close second in Gold Cup and Yorkshire Cup soon afterwards; Could have done with much more pace in Herbert Power latest which looked a fine tuneup and can go well for Willie Mullins.

Ibiecenco: Likes his cut and stepped through heavy ground to land the Geelong Cup just short of two weeks ago; Deserves respect for combination famous for Black Caviar although little else entitled him to serious consideration and ground markedly different today.

Verema: Developed into fine stayer in France and Overcame poor positioning, slow gallop, and then softer ground than she’d wanted to get better of Canadian International winner Joshua Tree at Deavuille latest for yard that bought Americain to win this in 2010; Might need some luck from stall 3 but lots stacks up perfectly for her and fitness (nearly 80 day break) can be taken on trust.

Dear Demi: Most interesting of the outsiders, sneaking a rail run to finish close third in Caulfield Cup before nightmare run in Mackinnon Stakes when second to Side Glance; This trip and likely pace tailor made for her and can be keeping on until the death; Interesting and worth a chance at least.

  

Tres Blue: Nothing wrong with his French form and like Fiorente last year, could do big things for Gai Waterhouse on first start; 2m in the family (half brother won over 2m in Germany) so can’t be written off. 

VERDICT: As ever there are a whole host of potential choices with international trainers now making this a prime target, and a strong raiding party looks to have an excellent chance of taking the trophy home. The potential for a slowly run race by Australian standards, as happened last year, must also be considered. Fiorente is a worthy favourite for Gai Waterhouse who should finish like a train but the same comments apply to DANDINO who arguably should have won the Caulfield Cup with a better draw and has little going against him in his mid to give Marco Botti a first Triumph. Simenon's recent trial run and Verema's improvement have been compelling and granted a clear run she can go close, while the Williams owned five - headed by last year's winner Sea Moon - all have realistic chances - and best of the outsiders is DEAR DEMI, whose last two runs are far stronger form than that of a 20-1 shot.