What was the biggest sporting shock of 2012? Nadal going out
at Wimbledon in the second round? Oliveira beating Pistorius? The US beating
France in the Olympic freestyle swimming? Chelsea’s Champions League success?
Kilmarnock in the Scottish League Cup?
Well those might take a back seat to England’s win over New
Zealand, who were threatening to break the world record of undefeated wins in
test rugby (it had been 20 games since their last loss) and had wiped aside the
rest of the home nations before heading to London and being outfought,
outmuscled, and outplayed before going down 38-21 in their only defeat in 30
matches.
The only blot on the copybook of Steve Hansen in his time in
charge, last year’s defeat has given a tremendous edge to what was already a
tantalising rematch. Since last Autumn’s epic, New Zealand have gone 12 games
unbeaten and reached epic heights in a tremendous duel with South Africa in
their Rugby Championship decider, while in 9 games, England have only lost once
and won 6 more times at Twickenham, a place fast becoming a fortress ahead of
their home world cup bid in 2015.
The talk in both the English and New Zealand media has
dominated by themes of revenge, just to add even more spice to the pot ahead of
a three match series on home turf next summer, although some could argue this
is a different ball game.
Last year’s defeat was famous for Manu Tuilagi’s
barnstorming performance in scoring a try and setting up another in the space
of 5 amazing minutes after New Zealand pulled the deficit back to just a point,
but there was a lot more behind the remarkable win, especially in the best pack
performance England have put in of recent times both at the breakdown and the
tight 5.
Before we consider
that last year was just a blip, it’s worth considering that England have the
tools to trouble the All Blacks. In a game that went down to the last seconds,
France had the All Black scrum in considerable trouble from start to finish. Yannick
Forestier generally had the better of Owen Franks at scrum time and while Joe
Marler isn’t in the same class as Alex Corbisiero (and might not have the
mobility of Mako Vunipola), Dylan Hartley’s abrasive performance against
Argentina last week was one of his best and the return of Dan Cole to the scrum
potentially gives England a strong platform ahead of the weekend. The lock
combination of Courtney Lawes (left) and Joe Launchbury has been arguably the
strongest positive of England’s autumn so far and if they repeat their
performances of the first two weeks then they can be a handful for even
Retallick and Whitelock, with Tom Wood and Chris Robshaw, the anchors of last
year’s glorious success, in even better form – much like England – approaching
the game, and Billy Vnuipola and replacement Ben Morgan are both capable of
pushing the pack forward.
England’s back’s have been much criticised – and rightly so
– for lack of pace and skill but Lee Dickson was much improved against
Argentina and Owen Farrell did have nerved of steel in this game last year; The
worry is that Twelverees, Tomkins, and Ashton are exposed under the New Zealand
kicking game – between them in two games they’ve failed to show much invention
and have been disappointing in the main –
Mike Brown and Ben Foden are more than capable of making the metres to
pin the All Blacks back just enough.
Few expect that to be enough, as New Zealand will come into
Twickenham without the cloud of the norovirus that had all but 2 of the team’s
matchday squad were suffering from in the lead up to last year – a valid reason
for a turnaround even if not given as an immediate excuse in the aftermath of
last year – but France showed that if their pack can be matched then they can
still be pushed close and their encounter last week was closer than even the 7
point winning margin suggested. The All Blacks at their peak form would be more
than capable of passing a mark of 14 but on just 2 of their past 6 visits would
they have beaten such a handicap and while they can win and make amends, the
margin might be smaller than expected for many.
Advice
1 pt New Zealand to win by 1-12 (9/5 Boylesports)
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