Breeders' Cup 2013 - Juvenile

9.43 Santa Anita

Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) (Dirt) (Class 1)  (2YO only)

Winner $1,144,200

Advice: 1 pt win Bond Holder (11/1 Spreadex, 8/1 general), 1 pt win Dance With Fate (12/1 Ladbrokes)

Smarty’s Echo: This his dirt debut but family loaded with winners on the surface; Outran odds when clear second to We Miss Artie at Keenland latest but beaten fair and square and much more needed to win here.

Dance With Fate: Desperately unlucky second in Del Mar Futuruity when sent back to square one with three furlongs to go before thundering for a fast finishing second; Made favourite for the Frontrunner Stakes but fell into the trap of chasing far too hard a pace and had nothing left when Bond Holder came in deep stretch; Better than that and a key player here.

Mexikoma: Evidently not a fan of the turf on debut but first time blinkers and switch to dirt did the trick when a 14 and half length winner in Delware maiden; Switched yards and come under the Team Valor banner since; All potential at this stage and exciting although this a different level.

New Year’s Day: 6 furlongs too short for him on Del Mar debut but put that experience to good use when a ready winner over Bond Holder stepped upto a mile there; That form obviously been boosted no end and while he’s making dirt debut today, has many winners on this surface in the family and has been training here and training here well; Surely has more to offer.

Bond Holder: No luck in 4 synthetic track starts, including when well behind Dance With Fate and readily outpointed by New Year’s Day at Del Mar, but step up in trip and switch to dirt bought out the best of him when coming from well off blistering early pace to run out a striking winner of Frontrunner Stakes; Possibly a little flattered by that as runner up went early and had nothing left late but can’t fault way he closed in deep stretch and won going away in the end; That makes him a key player here.

Tap It Rich: Deeply impressive winning debut in 1m maiden here when overcoming poor start to run out a near 5 length winner with only hand riding; Obviously you can’t compare the two tasks but significant that he comes here and Mike Smith being on board gives him first string feel that market backs up; Take seriously.

Conquest Titan: Disappointing favourite on debut at Churchill but apparently Polytrack much more to his linking when he coasted home at Woodbine; That said, well behind We Miss Artie in Keenland Grade 1 latest and doesn’t look good enough on that form.

Rum Point: Blinkers added and career best performance but still behind We Miss Artie and Smarty’s Echo latest and doesn’t look overly likely to be good enough even if he improved for dirt today.

We Miss Artie: Impressive turf maiden saw him get sent off as favourite for the With Anticipation stakes but disappointment there before bouncing back in style with comprehensive win in Breeders’ Futurity on the Polytrack latest; Form of that race is stacking up and stacking up quite well but needs to handle this surface.

Medal Count: Wide margin winner on debut at Ellis Park but a now show in synthetic Grade 3 at Keenland latest and while return to dirt might help, would need to really improve.

Diamond Bachelor: Impressive winner in pair of non grade events over 1m on turf but beaten at long odds on bidding for the hat-trick and needs significant progress switching to the dirt for first time.

Havana: Smooth winner first time out over 6 furlongs at Saratoga and put that speed to good use when kicking clear of the field in Champagne Stakes around the turn, going 3 lengths clear in straight before nearly being cut down by Honour Code (not here) in last strides (same path, connections as last year’s winner Shanghai Bobby); Clearly got talent and pace to burn and can be thereabouts although seeking lead from second widest stall with competition for the lead likely to be a tax on stamina late; Still has the speed to boss them and major player.

Strong Mandate: The visual performance of the year when he destroyed Grade 1 Hopeful by near 10 lengths eased down but nowhere in the Champagne behind Havana; Clearly better than that and entitled to be much, much shorter than he is but the worry that both times he’s faced kickback or failed to make the lead he’s lost and he’s going to have to get to the lead with Havana inside; Serious talent but gives impression much needs to fall right for him.

VERDICT: Havana is a worthy favourite and blessed with natural speed like last year’s winner Shanghai Bobby for the same connections, but he was running on empty in the Champagne and has to go half a furlong further from the second widest stall of all, so it remains to be seen how much he’s got in reserve in the stretch run. There’s an argument for suggesting that Strong Mandate should be much shorter but his career is a tale of lead reliance and the two may take eachother on. BOND HOLDER profited from similar circumstances when winning the Frontrunner over C&D from DANCE WITH FATE last time and the two can play a big part here with respect given to Bob Baffert’s lightly raced pair of New Year’s Day and Tap It Rich.