It’s a measure of Joe Schmidt’s professionalism that after
his first game in charge, a resounding 40-9 win against a Samoa side that was
ranked above them beforehand, that he said Ireland will need a "reality
check" when reviewing their five-try Samoa victory to have any chance of
beating Australia today.
And while one could find plenty of fault if looking deep
enough into their performance last week, there’s more than enough reason to
think that Ireland can make it two from two under Schmidt and condemn Ewen
McKenzie’s men to yet another defeat.
Australia were utterly beautiful against Italy last week,
crushing the hosts with a 50-20 rollover that included 7 tries, 8 offloads, 408
meters, 11 clean breaks and 19 defenders beaten – a perfect example of what one
of the world’s best backlines will do to you if their pack has even half a
platform. However taking on Ireland’s pack is a totally different challenge to
getting over the Azzuri, who were playing their first game of the Autumn
Internationals last week, and the rest of the year makes for grim reading.
Australia’s win last week was just their fourth of this year
– ending their worst streak since the game turned professional - and two of those wins came against
Argentina, in just their second season in the Rugby Championship.
Ireland’s 6 Nations was totally wrecked by injuries that
robbed them of amongst others, Simon Zebo, Stephen Ferris, Paul O’Connell, Cian
Healy, Eoin Reddan, and Johnny Sexton at one stage or another, and their summer
tour was Lions focused – and a successful one for many Irish players at that –
before Schmidt’s much awaited arrival and appointment this winter.
Leinster’s coach for 2 Heineken Cup wins – and a Rabo for
good measure – Schmidt has unique working relationship with the core of the
Irish side and we already saw some of the cohesion and skills he made famous at
Leinster when his men turned up the pace with a raft of second half changes
that he’s stuck with for this week.
Johnny Sexton is given the flyhalf spot back after being
rested for the Samoa game, with Eoin Reddan bought into set a high tempo from
early on in the same way Schmidt would do at Leinster. Luke Marshall gets a
much deserved run alongside Brian O’Driscoll in the centre, while Tommy Bowe
has overcome an injury scare.
It’s a serious statement of intent for Schmidt to come out
this early with his gameplan given the success that Kidney had using force
against Australia, not least when opening up the World Cup when stopping the
then Tri Nations winners in their tracks during the group stages, but whether
he wants to play enterprising rugby or not he has a significant advantage at
scrum time and the resources at the breakdown to get the Wallabies going backwards
– and every time that’s happened they’ve lost this year.
Advice
2 pts Ireland to win by 1-12 points (7/4 general)
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