New Zealand have made history time and time again in the
world of rugby and today they stand just 80 minutes from being the first side
to go a year unbeaten in the professional era and Steve Hansen’s all conquering
men are 1/20 to put their name in the record books with victory against Ireland
in Dublin today.
As the dominant side in rugby there isn’t a game that New
Zealand haven’t gone off favourites for in recent memory but according to the
bookmakers this is going to be their easiest win of the Autumn with bookmakers
giving a 20 point start for the hosts compared to the 11 France and England
received on their tour dates earlier this month.
Much of that is down to how flat the Irish were against
Australia last week. In a game that many had as a one score affair beforehand –
the biggest handicap generally available was just 2 – Ireland let in a soft
opening try and while they clawed themselves to within three points at half
time, were blown away by the Wallabies as the game went on.
It was a crushing blow for new head coach Joe Schmidt in
just his second test, with Ireland flat, lackasadical at the breakdown and in
contact especially, along with naivety in defence and gaping wide channels. Play
with the same lack of intent against the All Blacks and a mauling on the scale
of Ireland’s 60-0 obliteration in Hamilton last summer.
The All Blacks this year have been too good for every
opponent to face them but have also hit some special heights, most notably
their thrilling away win against South Africa to decide the championship in the
rugby game of the year, and haven’t come within less than a converted try of
defeat against any side this year.
While both France and England have had them on the ropes –
mainly through some wonderful forward play, aggression in numbers at the
breakdown and very strong scrumaging – this autumn, their superior ball skills
and finishing have seen them draw away in the second half on both occasions.
Those areas are seen as Ireland’s forte and when they pushed
NZ to three points in Christchurch last summer but Australia dominated them in
all areas last week and getting on top in the set piece and pack game but
restricting New Zealand’s chances to a minimum has proven impossible for too
many this year and Steven Hasen’s tweaks may proved some impetus for one last
push.
For freshness – much of this side have played rugby non stop
for nine months - Steve Hansen makes seven changes to the side that took
revenge for their Twickenham defeat last week, with two of them enforced as
Tony Woodcock and Dan Carter start early sabbaticals following calf troubles,
by Wyatt Crockett will be the one doing the pushing at the scrum if Ireland
scrum even half as badly as they did against Australia while Cruden is one of
the world’s premier flyhalves and has a strong relationship with Aaron Smith in
the halfbacks.
If Ireland don’t get a hold on the promising Steven Luatua –
getting a deserved chance – New Zealand could overrun Ireland in the recycling
game as they did to England early on and things could get very ugly indeed
despite the reinstatement of Gordon
D’Arcy to the inside channel to try and halt the force that is Ma’a Nonu. We
can’t doubt the pride that Schmidt’s men will try to put into proceedings this
week but a 20 point handicap is bang on the money looking at the last two
fixtures on Irish soil where NZ won by 20 and 19 in 2010 and 2008 respectively.
New Zealand have been pushed to the wire in their two games so far but could
easily run riot today and the best value may be a dutch of the 11-20 and 21-30
winning margins incase Hansen’s men really put on the gas late on.
Advice
1 pt New Zealand to win by 11-20 points (11/4 Hills)
1 pt New Zealand to win by 21-30 points (3/1 Paddy Power)
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