Autumn Internationals 2013 - Wales v Australia

The last act of a fantastic set of Autumn Internationals comes to an end with one of biggest grudge match of them all in international rugby, or at least the longest turning curse – and about the only thing one could confidently predict before kick off is that this latest encounter in the Wales – Australia saga looks likely to go right down to the wire.

Wales, having retained their 6 Nations style in such stunning fashion in Cardiff and provided the backbone of the first successful Lions side in 12 years, are looking to overcome the curse that Australia seem to have put over them in recent times with a win. The Wallabies come here having won their last eight against Gatland’s side.

It would also go a long way to breaking a losing run that has stretched since 2008 against the three SANZAR giants – New Zealand, South Africa and the Wallabies themselves – and provide a much needed mental boost given that they must tackle them and England in the pool of death at the 2015 World Cup.

Bookmakers couldn’t separate the two last year and once again that is the case with Wales having gained an extremely important wide margin win over Argentina – who were quite dominant winners in Cardiff last year - to go some way towards fixing their Southern Hemisphere woes – after getting within touching distance and then losing out in the pressure moments against a South Africa that has lost only to New Zealand and

Australia arrived here with their team down to the bare bones and their coach under fire last year before stealing what had been a poor game with the match’s most creative moment. A year on, they come here with a full squad and fine first XV to choose from and are on a run of results that quietly seem to be alleviating the pressure on new boss Ewan Mckenzie despite their drunken antics in Dublin after their 32-15 win over Ireland.

Australia have been given some serious beatings this year, not least during the Rugby Championship, but have given their best performances for McKenzie since then including a trashing of Argentina at the end of the Rugby Championship, their impressive play in an admittedly dead-rubber Blesidoe Cup game, and a trashing of Ireland that admittedly flatters them while showing the edge in the set piece and contact game that allowed their backline to run riot.

While McKenzie’s initial spell has been seen as a wet squib but after a flat opening against England they’ve won all three of their tour games and with a full compliment in a backline directed by the in form Quade Cooper, would need only parity in the forward battle and contact area to consider themselves favourites – they won last year’s game with the one moment of creativity during the entire game – with the likes of Nick Cummins, Israel Folau, Adam Ashley Cooper and Christian Leali’fano all ready to strike. 

If Wales – who tried a lot of new combinations against Tonga that never really worked and revert back to their strongest valuable side, which as we all know, will aim to dominate the contact area and set piece. The loss of Adam Jones, Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies is crucial in this respect, but if Alex Cuthbert is fit on his return then the wing matchup could decide the game. With so many unknowns and the recent history between these two, a dutch of the 1-5 winning margin once again seems to be wisest choice. In the potential tryscorer margins, look towards Israel Folau, in a rich vein of form, or either of the Australian centres, who will be attacking a new centre partnership for Wales and are likely to get inside ball from Quade Cooper and Will Genia.

Advice

1 pt Australia to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general)

1 pt Wales to win by 1-5 points (5/1 general)