Saturday, 2 November 2013

Breeders' Cup 2013 - Filly and Mare Sprint

8.21 Santa Anita

Breeders' Cup Filly And Mare Sprint (Grade 1) (Dirt) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)
Winner $572,101 - 12 run

Advice: 1 pt win Groupie Doll (7/2 888Sport, 3/1 general), 1 pt win Dance Card (8/1 general)


Owner detailsRenee’s Titan: Got the better of no other than Distaff contender Beholder here in January but hasn’t gottten close to any sort of a win since and easy to dismiss.

Owner detailsBook Review: Perfect debut for this yard when taking C&D Grade 1 last December, nailing longtime leader in last strides to win by a neck; Since been as good in just the four runs since (runs well fresh so 71 day layoff not a worry), just beaten by Dance to Bristol latest; One of many with a chance and the more early speed the better.

Owner detailsStarship Truffles: Would be a massive contender based on the way that she absolutely pasted Judy The Beauty in style three starts ago at Calder but strangely off form the last twice and lot of more competition on the front end for her (won from the front at Calder); Would do well to repeat.


Owner detailsDance Card: Looked a machine when romping Gazelle Stakes at Aqudeuct last November (that her fourth straight win after being beaten on debut behind Book Review on debut); First start since when third in Gallant Bloom handicap but not that far behind big contender Dance to Bristol, an effort which can be marked up given how she found herself too far behind early; That can’t happen here if she’s to win but plenty of reason to improve and if she breaks on terms few will finish stronger.


Owner detailsTeddy’s Promise: Strong front runner who arrives here in better form than when an outsider and well beaten last year; Now 5-9 over this course after ready defeat of Great Hot here latest and on much better terms with Book Review from her swift defeat two starts ago; Can’t rule out but not impossible to see scenario where she goes too hard on the lead before tiring late as happened last year.

Owner detailsIsmene: Hard to like on her first start in a graded race, let alone one as competitive as this.


Owner detailsSummer Applause: Didn’t have the best of luck when second in the Grade 1 Spinster over 1m1f on synthetic track at Keenland; Not raced over trip this short for a long time and worry that she’ll lack the speed for this early; Needs pace burnout.


Owner detailsDance to Bristol: Most consistent in this field, having finished in the top two in all but one of her 19 starts; Turned over comprehensively in Gallant Bloom having looked as if she was set to make short work of her field latest but could never reel in runway wire-to-wire winner (Dance Card third); Track said to be favouring front runners that day but last night it played the same way here; Still, must be respected on her previous efforts, especially when nosing out Book Review at Saratoga; Should go well.


Owner detailsJudy the Beauty: Winless at this distance or on dirt but second in Saratoga’s Priorss Stakes last year so handles it, and ahead of Groupie Doll (reversed form) in Keenland warmup last time; Likes to have good pace to shot at but may get those conditions today and must be considered for all that she’s 4lbs worse off with Groupie Doll for that run.


Owner detailsGreat Hot: 50/1 and well beaten second last in this last year, but unlike her last time out conqueror Teddy’s Promise, doesn’t seem greatly improved; Able to get how own way when beating Book Review in Grade 2 in February and don’t see same thing happening.


Owner detailsGroupie Doll: Came here as outstanding divisional leader, 4 time winner and hot favourite before destroying field in this last year and arguably even better effort when just nosed out of Cigar Mile at Aqueduct the time after; Off season issues hampered her return (off for nearly nine months), so return third when she stumbled badly at start and was keen early before rather flat finishing effort; Better when convincing winner of Presque Isle Downs Masters (broke track record) but didn’t look at best latest, although slow pace different from situation she got when bolting up in that last year


Owner detailsSweet Lulu: Just the 5 starts since may and has to come into serious consideration when you consider that her first defeat came against Distaff second Close Hatches n Cotillion at Park and can’t fault her attitude to win Test Stakes after sustained duel on the front; Major contender.



VERDICT: This is a serious race and you can make a case for any number in this field, but if GROUPIE DOLL turns up at her best she’s the one they all have to beat despite a troubled season. With a serious pace to aim at on a tight surface, she can reverse form with Judy the Beauty on much better terms despite a wide post position. Cover her with DANCE CARD, who has significant potential to improve from her comeback run behind Dance to Bristol if staying with the pace early. Sweet Lulu is best of the rest. 
 

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