Dubai Duty Free 2012

5.25 Meydan

Dubai Duty Free (Group 1) (Turf) (3yo plus)

Advice: 1 pt win (4/1 general), 3 pts place Ambitious Dragon (5/4 Betfair), 2 pts place California Memory (4/1 Betfair)

Green Destiny: Improved 30lbs since winning Newmarket handicap off 87 at the beginning of last season and showed smart turn of foot when winning Arc Trial, having been previously quite poorly placed; Creditable sixth in Champion Stakes but stone last when in Round 3 of Maktoum Challenge and this seems too hard for him anyway.

Await The Dawn: Shaped with potential at two & again bettered that at three, signing off with a 9 length Group 3 rout at Leopardstown & same story when storming clear at Chester under penalty on first run of 2011; Simply more impressive when blasting his way through heavy ground in the Hardwicke and looked set for campaign geared towards Classic, but then sadly fell travelsick; Clearly not right on either of his last two runs and interesting although fitness has to be a worry once again and there’s also the worry of how this trip will suit.

Rajasman: Gained a deserved group win after solid efforts in higher class company when beating Rio De La Plata on Arc weekend but has since disappointed, including twice running poor races here; Others preferred.

Ambitious Dragon: Class act and 5 time Group 1 winner; Caught out by slowly run race in Hong Kong Cup three starts back but put in two superb efforts when beating California Memory with ease in Stewards Cup and Hong Kong Gold Cup the last twice, barely off the bridle for first success before repeating trick last time out; That form marks him out at the one to beat.

Musir: Class act and looked as good as ever when winning Group 3 events on his first two starts this season with ease, but unable to find an answer after going wide in Burj Nahaar last time out; Better drawn this time but this yet tougher still.

Delegator: Not long ago since he was taking big hand in high class mile races, and shaped as if ability was there last season before injury (bruised foot) intervened; Made successful return to sprinting when mowing down field in Duke Of York Stakes; Bettered that form when unlucky in July Cup, doing best of those drawn wide (he was 17 of 17) before injuring himself in Lennox Stakes; Fairly ready winner on seasonal reappearance but that at a comfortable trip for him and always likely to be easier for him off 111; Back up in trip and class, others preferred.

Dark Shadow: Progressing far, winning his last two events over this specific trip before going down just a half-length to Tosen Jordan in Tenno Sho and following that up with creditable second to Trailblazer in Toyoto Kinen last time out; That form should see him being there or thereabouts so no surprise to see him right there.

California Memory: Took advantage of canny ride in slowly run race to land Hong Kong Cup when he had Ambitious Dragon held in fourth; Never able to strike in a blow over a mile in Stewards’ Cup after getting caught hideously wide onto the home turn before being beaten fair and square last time out but that form still gives him a big chance and worthy of support.

Xtension: Ahead of California Memory but behind Ambitious Dragon on last two runs, form which puts him right there at the finish; Easily beaten on both occasions and had a much easier run than California Memory on both occasions but no reason why he shouldn’t give his running once again.

Muthadee: Useful for Tommy Stack in Ireland but improved leaps and bounds since joining Mike De Kock team, winning two handicaps in easy/impressive style before unlucky third in Jebel Hatta, when given too much to do when third behind stablemate Master Of Hounds; It should be noted that this will provide a yet tougher test of his ability but it would be churlish to suggest that he didn’t have more to give and he’s a contender.

Cityscape: Already confirmed as solid group performer but took his form to another level last season when first or second on all but one occasion; Best effort when just behind Able One in the Hong Kong Mile at the end of last season; Would have to be given a big chance based on that form and one who should be there or thereabouts with a step up in trip not likely to be any real bother on him.

Presvis: Winner of this last year, showing that he retains all the ablity that has carried him to previous success at top level when things fall right for him; Worry that he’s shown little form of late to be honest and needs everything to go right including in stronger race than last year.

City Style: One of many handicap improvers throughought this carnival, coming a close enough second to Musir over this C&D before coming a close runner up to Master Of Hounds in the Jebel Hatta; Worry about whether he’ll actually retain his form with Muthadee from that occasion and there seem to be a few too good in this race.

Rio De La Plata: Would have a much better chance based on all his efforts during last season, the best of them being his close second to Excelebration in the Moulin; Below best on both starts at this carnival with no obvious excuses and has to step up majorly on what he's done so far.

Wigmore Hall: Gained a deserved Group 1 win after many unlucky trips (most of all when blocked for a run behind Cape Blanco in Arlington Million) in Canadian International; No wins since and would need everything to drop just right in much stronger renewal than the one he finished third in last year.

Duabwi Gold: Improved beyond all recognition on two year old form last year and overcame mid-season blip to post three storming efforts in Group 1 company last year, including when only a length behind Able One; Never able to land in a blow in the Jebel Hatta last time out from wide drawn and today might be the same story.

VERDICT: Arguably the strongest race on the card and a class act in AMBITIOUS DRAGON who will take the beating if reproducing the form which has seen him win two of Hong Kong’s toughest races on the bridle, and he could well be going for a hat – trick if the Hong Kong Cup hadn’t been a slowly run affair. He had CALIFORNIA MEMORY behind him on two of those occasions and along with Xtension, there seems to be no reason why he can’t be on the premises once again along with Xtension. Cityscape and Dark Shadow add plenty of depth, while Muthadee’s new found improvement will make him very popular even taking a step up in class.