Cheltenham Festival 2012 - Gold Cup

Cheltenham Festival (Day 4, Race 4)

Cheltenham Gold Cup (3.20)

Advice: 3 pts win Long Run (2/1 general)

 

Burton Port: One of most progressive and probably underrated novice chasers of 2 years ago, winning 5 times (including the December, Reynoldstown and Mildmay Chases) and coming second in the RSA Chase; Excellent run when second in the Hennessy behind Diamond Harry but really jumped back into picture for this when pushing Long Run all the way at Newbury last time out on his first run since late 2010; Getting 10lbs from Long Run  that day but could have won if he wanted and if avoiding the bounce factor, as big a contender as any.

 

Carruthers: Impressed with his easy front running victories as a novice, running creditably in RSA Chase when bad mistake put paid to his chances 3 out; Reached that form for the first time since when clear cut winner of Hennessy two starts ago but that flattered him a bit and will do well to better last year’s finish afrer pulling up in the Welsh National.

China Rock: Reached a high level over fences last season and has improved this year too, winning a couple of very smart Grade 2 chases before running third and fourth in Grade 1 events (travelling well until he injured himself in this last year too); Had a good blowout over hurdles at Punchestown first time out but hard to fancy him after desperate run in Hennessy behind Quel Esprit.

Diamond Harry: As talented as any horse on his day, like when beating Burton Port in the Hennessy just three runs ago; That kind of form would give him a massive chance and right jockey for him on Noel Fehily, but ran badly here once again in the Argento  and that tempers enthusiasm.

Kauto Star: Already confirmed as all-time great following his wins in 2007/09, along with his now 5 wins in the King George, the latest signalling a glorious return to form for him following below par last season; Would be first horse older than 10 to win since 1969 but this great is a trends buster and no surprise to see him run a massive race.

Knockara Beau: Hard to find a more consistent horse over hurdles and chase form isn’t that bad either (still 5lbs below last winning mark over fences); Well held by Midnight Chase over this course two runs ago and much more needed here.

Long Run: Went from pretender to undisputed champion last term, storming home in King George and last year’s renewal of this with tremendous late burst last year both times; Second to rejuvenated Kauto Star twice this season, making mistakes on both occasions, but better in that respect when just holding out Burton Port (gave 10lbs) at Nebwury; Would probably need to better his efforts this season to land this again but seems to be more of a stayer than ever and sure to be seen to best effect on this course, so worthy favourite to retain his crown.

 

Midnight Chase: Improved 36lbs on official ratings throughought last season, winning six of his seven starts before valiant fifth in last year’s Gold Cup; Found life tougher this season (ground against him in Ireland before having too much weight in the Rowyland Meryick Chase) but impressive win in the Argento Chase (albeit against some out of form types) showed what he’s all about; Worry for him today is being taken on for the lead.

Quel Esprit: Had threatened to be a nearly horse with jumping last season but used confidence boosters as a springboard to first Grade 1 success when winning Irish Hennessy last time around; Jumped well that day and goes like a good horse, but still has at least 10lbs to find based on his actual form and others preferred today.

Synchronised: Runaway step up n form to win Lexus Chase when running away from best Irish Staying chasers; Some have crabbed that form but endless stamina will surely suit and still an impressive winner that day; Hard to argue against apart from fact he’s stepping up majorly in class.

The Giant Bolster: Takes liberties at his fences sometimes but plenty of class to go with that, as he showed when taking apart decent handicap chase field here on trials day; Gave the impression that he wouldn’t actually stay this trip on this course when fourth behind Long Run last time out and passed over.

The Midnight Club: Prepared for last year’s Grand National but did well to get round after putting his foot in the first open ditch; National once again the target so hard to fancy here, with his form having taken a little dip this year despite ground probably not being to his liking.

Time For Rupert: Quickly made up into one of leading novice chasers of last season, bolting up on two chase starts before disappointing in RSA of last season’ This year not gone to plan, with Weird Al beating him easily at Wetherby in October before coming fifth in Betfair Chase; Beat the Giant Bolster easily although had his way that day and 14 lengths to make on Midnight Chase based on his Argento run.

Weird Al: Lost his way last season after injury curtailed plans for a tilt at the RSA Chase 2 years ago but back in style with excellent win over Time For Rupert (gave 3lbs) in the Charlie Hall Chase before creditable third in the Betfair Chase, getting within 12 lengths of the big two; Been freshened up for this since and very interesting here given his food record fresh.

What A Friend: Seen by many as a Gold Cup contender after wins in Lexus Chase and Totesport Bowl 2 seasons ago and while he had troubled season, did go some way to fulfilling that promise when fourth in this last year, running on rapidly through beaten horses; Fell sick after poor hurdling run at Wetherby but back to best last time, although he was well behind Long Run and Burton Port last time out and is now 10lbs worse off with winner and has no feasiable reason to turn around the form with runner up.

VERDICT: The race that everyone’s been waiting for and as ever, it carries a fascinating backdrop this year. When defending champion LONG RUN beat Kauto Star by 11 lengths last year many – yours truly included – thought that would be the end of an era, thoughts which were only hardened when he was pulled up at Punchestown. Such talk has since been put to bed with two fantastic wins in the Betfair Chase and King George, and although he’s beaten last year’s champion twice this season, the form could be reversed around Cheltenham today, with the extra two furlongs surely in Long Run’s favour. He wasn’t as impressive as many thought he should be at Newbury, but with a 10lbs turnaround with Burton Port (himself a major contender) he can hold off him too, with the rest all held if he runs to form. Of those, Weird Al gives the most interest based on his third behind the big two at Haydock, a run which gives him as good a chance as any here.