Cheltenham Festival (Day 1, Race 1)
Supreme Novices Hurdle (1:30)
Advice: 1 pt each/way Gaileo’s Choice (7/1 Skybet), 0.5 pt
each/way Tetlami (10/1 Skybet)
2 pts Gaileo’s Choice to beat Montbazon (8/11 Hills), 1 pt Gaileo's Choice to beat Steps To Freeedom (evs Bet Victor) 1 pt
Tetlami to beat Colour Squadron (8/11 Hills)
Agent Archie: Useful on the flat (rated 88) and has
impressed with two wins, pushing side subsequent winner Ingleby Sprit on his
debut at Ludlow before winning well under penalty at Newcastle; Deserves to
take his chance here for all that Cinders And Ashes looks like main string.
Allure Of Illusion: Only just got up on bumper debut but
very promising run when third behind Steps To Freedom and Montbazon at Aintree;
Slightly below that form over hurdles, being slightly unlucky to get hampered when
beaten on his comeback before running iddsapointly for a 1/5 favourite when
dead heating over 2m4f last time; More needed here and looks weakest of stable’s
charges. 
Catch Tammy: Little to no realistic chance on all form. 
Cinders And Ashes: Progressive in bumpers, although he
struggled when upped in class, emptying badly in last year’s Champion Bumpers
and then disappointed at Aintree(trainer has put it down to age); Picked up the
winning threat again this year, completing impressive soft ground hat trick with
ease last time; Plenty of ability but worrying how he disappointed when stepped
up in class last season.
Colour Squadron: Facile bumper winner who made an excellent
debut behind It’s A Gimme in good looking novice hurdle at Newbury and followed
up with gritty win over highly regarded Montbazon (reopposed) (below par but
useful Ericht left quite a way behind in third); All set to win Grade 1
Tolworth Hurdle but for throwing his race (that a right handed track);
Cantering when coming down behind Montbazon at Newbury latest (no certain
winner but would have been close) and entitled to significant respect based on
that result, albeit with the winner that day disappointing twice since;
Respected.
Darlan: Unbeaten in four before his eye-catching effort when
taking heavy fall at Newbury in Totesport Trophy (mark of 148; Hadn’t been
asked yet, looked full of running); Very interesting based on that but worry
that his poorest effort yet came at this course when he had to have everything
thrown at him to beat 121 rated horse; Probably improved since then and deserves
a lot of respect, for all he looks fairly short in race which hasn’t seem
favourites do well over the years. 
Distant Menories: Listed winner on flat (rated 114) who used
ability to good effect when cantering home on Limerick debut, but well held by
Dylan Ross and Midnight Game when third at Naas last time and no reason why he
should turn around that form. 
Dylan Ross: Really impressive on hurdling debut and has lost
little caste in coming second on his next four starts, travelling as if he’d
relish better ground on more than one occasion (best effort in Future Champions
Novice Hurdle, which came on good to yielding ground); Better chance than odds
suggest if at his best form (likely with conditions and pace) and considered
with similar credentials to Go Native, the 2008 winner of this race for same
jockey/trainer. 
Gaileo’s Choice: Arguably the best of these on the flat,
dropping down to 10 furlongs to win the Group 3 Kilternan Stakes, beating
useful yardstick with bit in hand; All out to beat modest runner up on hurdling
debut but vastly improved despite struggling with ground and slowly run race
(caught flat footed by stayer) in Royal Bond Novice Hurdle, all the more impressive
considering that had come after a three month layoff; Did nothing special when
winning egg and spoon race at Fairyhouse but that sets him up nicely for this
and he’s surely got more to give on this surface; Dermot Weld’s festival record
is only one winner but he’s sent plenty of good sorts who have run really well
and deserves maximum respect. 
Hazy Tom: Looked a serious prospect when winning first four
starts under rules (all boosted since) but wheels have come off since, finding
ground too soft when third in Ascot Grade 2 and pulling his race away at same
course last time; Needs to settle far better if he’s to be winning this.
Jimbill: Wide margin winner on his first hurdles run after
coming third in good bumper over this C&D but since disappointed and there
are far better horses here; Passed over.
Midnight Game: Very useful on the flat but only began to truly
realize that potential with his win at Naas last time, beating Dylan Ross
further than any other horse had so far; Always been said to want better ground
so should go well on that evidence and fact that Davy Russell switched to
Trifolium isn’t a major negative with Paul Townend on board; Interesting here. 
Montbazon: One of the leading bumper performer of last year,
his impressive win in Sales bumper sandwiched between two defeats to Festival
bumper winners; Made an excellent hurdling debut when just behind Colour Squadron
at Newbury in soft ground, (always been going to improve for a better surface
and the hurdling experience); We learnt nothing from his easy win at Plumpton
but he was impressive at Newbury latest when beating Vulcanite (Colour Squadron
was going well when coming down although he hadn’t gotten the better of
Montbazon yet); Much respected.
Prospect Wells: Decent flat horse (rated 99 on the level and
that for a horse in decline); Made impressive winning debut having been keen
throughout at Chepstow, before following that up with close Grade 2 second to
Steps To Freedom and impressive Newbury win; Heavily backed for Ladbroke but
combination of slow pace, soft ground, and being further back than ideal all
cost him there; Tolworth disappointment best forgotten but more needed in any
case and none of his races have worked out all that well.
Simeon: Deeply impressive when winning at Cork but smashed
to pieces by Trifolium and can’t be seriously backed for this test after that.
Steps To Freedom: Grade 2 winner of Aintree Bumper, getting
better of extremely highly regarded Montbazon before Punchestown
disappointment; Unbeaten in three over hurdles, getting the better of a slow
pace to give 3lbs and a beating to Prospect Wells here in Grade 2 back in
November;That form not worked out great since but hard to think he doesn’t have
more to give; Major snag in his profile is not having had a run since in any
capacity, as only Captain Cee Bee has won without running in the past 45 days
for more than a decade; Respected. 
Tetlami: Injured after disappointing in Aintree bumper but
brought right back to best over hurdles, winning a very strong event at Sandown
on his comeback before giving weight and a beating towards Vulcanite at Kempton
on Boxing Day; Prepped for this in good style with comfortable win at AW track
at same venue and deserves much respect. 
Trifolium: Steady improver with racing this season, winning
impressive twice in December before improved once again to finish creditable
second to So Young; Grade 2 romp has seen him jump into the picture and
deserves respect for all that he’s yet to encounter ground this fast. 
Vulcanite: Smart on flat; Second to very smart Tetlami on
hurdling debut at Kempton, having pulled hard early before going down fighting
at latter stage of race; Easy win at Southwell told us nothing and well beaten
by Montbazon, so left aside today.
VERDICT: A wide open start to a fantastic week. Darlan is
favourite based on the impression he made when travelling well before falling
at Newbury in the Betfair Hurdle, and while he deserves respect, it’s worrying
that his worst performance (a full 20lbs below his current mark) came here when
trashed to beat a vastly inferior field. He can win, but the value’s gone from
his price. Steps To Freedom would have been the selection but for lack of a
prep run (which leaves us in the lurch as to his progression since November),
but with the Irish having won 7 of the last 11 runnings, the suggestion is GAILEO’S
CHOICE. Second in the Royal Bond before winning his prep easily last time, he’s
sure to be suited well by the better ground that he’ll encounter here, as his
flat form has shown (a Group 3 winner on good ground). Dermot Weld has just one
festival win to his name but plenty have placed and the 7/1 that Skybet will
give you (playing 5 places) seems a fair bet, along with 8/11 that he can get
the better of Montbazon. Next best from this point of view is TETLAMI, who has
done nothing wrong since coming back from injury and is sure to relish the all-out
gallop he’ll get here. A line through Vulcanite puts him nearly level with
Montbazon, so 10/1 is more than fair about his chances along with the 8/11 that
he beats Colour Squadron.
PREDICTION
1.
Gaileo’s Choice
2.
Tetlami
3.
Steps To Freedom
4.
Montbazon
5.
Darlan
No comments:
Post a Comment